2021 Seattle Mariners Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days) MARINERS Sign James Paxton

The Seattle Mariners are one of baseball’s least successful teams over the last 20 years, but this drought may soon be coming to an end.  After a dreadful start to the 2020 season, the Mariners finished strong, going 20-15 in their last 35 games.  They’ve been able to add an extremely talented core of young players through trades and drafts including the Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis along with guys like Evan White, Jared Kelenic and J.P. Crawford.  More recently, the Mariners are adding some established big league names to that roster to help them compete in 2021 and going forward.

Additions

• RP Ken Giles

• SP James Paxton

• SP Chris Flexen

• RP Keynan Middleton

• RP Rafael Montero (trade/Rangers)

This includes closer Ken Giles who has signed a multi-year deal which was necessary because he is going be out for most if not all of 2021 after Tommy John surgery.  However, in a weird way, this is a move similar to drafting a superstar prospect in that it requires patience but can definitely pay off in the long run.  In 2019, Giles was elite for the Blue Jays with a 1.83 ERA in 53 appearances, striking out an insane 83 batters in 53 innings.  He’s only 30 now and will be 31 when we’re getting ready for 2022 and by then the Mariners should be in a better position to compete for a playoff spot with another year of development for their youngsters.  This isn’t the most exciting move since he won’t be ready this season but I think it’s a pretty good one.

Meanwhile, James Paxton is coming back to Seattle on an 8.5 million dollar deal that could pay out as much as 10 million with incentives.  He had back surgery before 2020 but did come back from that to start 5 games for the Yankees where he did strike out 26 batters in 20 innings but gave up 4 home runs and had an ERA of 6.64 in the small sample.  But he is now returning to where he found a comfort zone in 2017 and 2018 when he went a combined 23-11.  He continued that dominance in 2019 with the Yankees, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 150 innings of work. 

Hopefully he’ll be healthy, effective and comfortable back with M’s and this is a big signing for that rotation that also added former Mets prospect Chris Flexen, who made the most of his 2020 season in Korea, getting in shape and becoming one of the better pitchers in the KBO, but he’s still unproven in the big-leagues.  He’ll get a crack at the rotation but could also provide long relief out of the bullpen.  Speaking of the bullpen, Keynan Middleton was signed to provide some much needed quality middle relief.  He’s got a 3.48 career ERA and a 9.0 strikeout rate for the Angels.  A bigger move was getting 2020 Rangers closer Rafael Montero, who’s fastball has only been getting faster, touching 97 MPH in 2020.  He went 8-for-8 in save opportunities and also has sinker and solid changeup. 

Lineup

1.       J.P Crawford SS

2.       Dylan Moore 2B

3.       Kyle Lewis CF

4.       Kyle Seager 3B

5.       Mitch Haniger RF

6.       Marmolejos/Bishop LF

7.       Ty France DH

8.       Evan White 1B

9.       Torrens/Murphy C

Luis Torrens

Let’s jump into the lineup for this team and it starts out with J.P. Crawford, former first round pick who won his first Gold Glove in 2020 and showed massive improvement with the bat as well.  He is spectacular defensively, can steal some bases and work the walk.  Although he’s probably not going to hit .300 any time soon, he’s otherwise an ideal leadoff man for this team.  Dylan Moore at second base isn’t as flash defensively as Crawford but he gets the job done while bringing power and a 90.4 average exit velocity in 2020.  He’s got 17 home runs in just 384 at bats and could be in line for a big 2021. 

Kyle Lewis was the unanimous American League Rookie of the Year in 2020 and led the team in home runs, hits and walks.  He made several amazing catches in the outfield and is one of the most exciting young players in the game.  Based on the power he’s shown so far in the big-leagues, he could potentially hit 30+ home runs in 2021.  Up next is Kyle Seager, a veteran who is showing no signs of slowing down.  He’s good for 20+ bombs, excellent defense and an elite eye at the plate.  In 248 at bats in 2020, he struck out just 33 times. 

Mitch Haniger is next but I’m not entirely sure of his health situation after missing all of 2020.  If he’s back and healthy like he was back in 2018, he could be a big bat in that lineup.  That year, he hit 26 home runs with a .285 average and 93 RBI.  Another potential power bat is lefty Jose Marmolejos, an undrafted free agent who the Nats signed way back 2011 and rose through the ranks of the minor leagues until hitting 18 home runs with a .315 batting average in 2018, getting named Fresno Grizzlies hitter of the year.  He hit 6 homers for the Mariners last year in just 107 at bats and has 20+ home run potential.

He’ll likely platoon with Barden Bishop, a plus outfielder and runner who hit well in the minors but hasn’t yet shown that in the bigs.  If the need for another outfielder comes, Jared Kelenic should be ready very soon.  In 2019, the first round pick hit 23 home runs in the minors with a .291 average.  Next at DH is Ty France and when I think of Ty France I think of the 2019 El Paso Chihuahuas, the team for whom he hit .399 with 27 home runs in just 296 at bats.  He looked like the next coming of Hank Greenberg and since then hasn’t quite shown anything like that at the big-leave level but he did hit .302 with a .362 on base for the Mariners last year with a couple home runs in 86 at bats.  It will be interesting to see what he brings in 2021 but the potential is obviously there.

Evan White is one of the Mariners big prospects who they offered a multi-year $24 million extension to before his big league debut.   He’s got unbelievable defense but hit only .176, striking out in 42% of his at bats.  Perhaps he was rushed a little bit but he has 25 home run power and if he can settle in a little bit and bring that average to around .240-.250, which I think will happen, he’ll be fantastic overall talent for the Mariners.  Luis Torrens shows great defensive talent in the minors, getting ranked as one of the top defensive catching prospects in the game.  Unfortunately, his bat isn’t the best, with a career average under the Mendoza Line and just 1 home run in 207 at bats.  Also look for Tom Murphy to be back in there if healthy after missing 2020 with a broken foot.  He hit 18 home runs with a .324 on-base in 2019.  

This lineup is sneaky good with quality bat to ball skills like Seager and Lewis, excellent defense all around and 20+ home run power from at least 5 of these names.  Some names need more development and there may be lack of superstar power, although Kyle Lewis is making headlines and Jared Kelenic could be doing the same soon.  Overall, I think it’s a pretty good lineup and I’m going to give it a B.

Bench

• Marmolejos/Bishop

• Torrens/Murphy

• Shed Long Jr.

• Donovan Walton

• Sam Haggerty

Looking at the bench, I like the platoon option with Marmolejos and Bishop.  Torrens and/or Murphy would be provide a certain set of skills coming off the bench depending on who’s starting.  After that, Shed Long and Sam Haggerty both have great speed and could be nice pinch running options to use at 2nd base for that garbage extra innings rule.  Shed hasn’t hit big league pitching well though, with just a .171 average last year and Haggerty hasn’t shown a lot so far either at the plate. Same story for Donovan Walton, who hasn’t hit above .200 yet.  As long as the regulars stay healthy, this lineup could be nice for defensive and baserunning needs but other than that, it feels like a little thin. Keep in mind with promotions like Kelenic and other prospects, the bench will improve.  For now, I’m going to give the bench a C-.

Rotation

1.       Marco Gonzales

2.       James Paxton

3.       Yusei Kikuchi

4.       Justus Sheffield

5.       Justin Dunn

6.       Chris Flexen

Nick Margevicius

Logan Gilbert

Logan Gilbert

The Mariners rotation, as mentioned earlier, got a huge bump with James Paxton. However, I think their ace will still be Marco Gonzales, who led all of MLB with a 9-1 strike-to-walk ratio.  He had a 7-2 record with a 3.1 ERA and that was after being a 2019 workhorse for the M’s, leading the league with 34 starts while winning 16 games with a 3.99 ERA.  Next is Paxton, and if he is healthy, will create a very impressive 1-2 punch at the top of this rotation.

Yusei Kikuchi is a lefty who can hit 95 MPH, keeps the ball on the ground and re-invented himself last season, working on a new cutter and improving his strikeout rate from 6.5 in 2019 to 9 in 2020.  He gave up too many runs, with a 5.17 ERA but showed some nasty stuff and I’m excited to see what he can bring in 2021.  Next is Justus Sheffield, whose slider fooled lefties all season long.  In 55 innings of work, he gave up just 2 home runs.  Justin Dunn also flashed some brilliant stuff in 2020, including a 12 inning stretch where he gave up just 2 hits.  He ended the season 4-1 with a 4.34 ERA and did have some control problems, which I think are manageable with some more experience since he seemed to control the ball pretty well in the minors. 

The Mariners also have Chris Flexen and Nick Margevicius available and could be part of a 6-man rotation, a concept the Mariners have used in the past and are rumored to be returning to in 2021.  Like I said, Flexen was great in Korea and for more specifics, he was 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 132 strikeouts to 30 walks.  This doesn’t mean he’ll be great in the states, and if needed, Nick Margevicius can also start some games.  Also, let’s not forget super-prospect Logan Gilbert, who hasn’t pitched above A ball but may be ready at some point in 2021.  In 2019, he had a 2.19 ERA in the minors with 165 strikeouts in 135 innings.  This kid looks legit.

I think this rotation is solid.  With Marco Gonzales at the top, another year of experience under the belts of Sheffield and Dunn, along with the added experience and quality of James Paxton, I can’t say this is a bad group of starters.  With that lineup and this rotation, the Mariners could be a surprise team in the A.L. West.  I’m going to stick with the same grade I gave the lineup and give this starting rotation a B as well.

Bullpen

• Rafael Montero

• Kendall Graveman

• Anthony Misiewicz

• Keynan Middleton

• Yohan Ramirez

• Joey Gerber

• Brady Lail

• Erik Swanson

• Casey Sadler

• Brandon Brennan

• Domingo Tapia

• Aaron Fletcher

• Andres Munoz

• Will Vest

• Ljay Newsome

Yohan Ramirez

The bullpen was an issue last season as the Mariners struggled to find a consistent closer.  And so, they traded for Rafael Montero, who wasn’t a closer before 2020 but, as I said, was 100% in save opportunities when he got the chance.  Then there’s rookie Anthony Misiewicz, who averaged 11.3 strikeouts per nine with a sick cutter.  He can handle full innings and be more than just a lefty specialist.  Kendall Graveman is still around and can do some long relief, maybe start here and there if needed.  Casey Salder has good stuff but walks way too many batters and gets into trouble.  Yohan Ramirez showed some filth last year with 26 strikeouts in 20 innings and a 2.61 ERA.  Other than that, it’s not the strongest bullpen there are some guys who will have to prove themselves in Spring Training.  Still, there are some decent arms and if the rotation holds up, this bullpen should be able to hold quite a few wins for the M’s.  I’m going to give the pen a C+.

So, there you have it, a B for the rotaton and lineup, C- for the bench and C+ for the bullpen.  Overall, I’m going to this very exciting young team B-.   I really think this could be a surprise team and with the World Series Odds right now listing the Mariners at 80-1 odds to win the World Series alongside teams like the Tigers, Orioles, and yes, the Giants, I feel like it wouldn’t be a bad bet to throw $25 down on the Mariners for a chance to win $2000; don’t take that as professional advice, but I’m just saying – I like this team and they have a chance to win a lot of games. 

2021 Cincinnati Reds Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days) Reds Sign Sean Doolittle!

Back in late 2019 going in 2020, before all the craziness – well, there was still some craziness back then,  but nothing compared to what we were going to see in 2020 – the Cincinnati Reds were one of the hottest teams in the offseason, making all kinds of moves to improve that lineup including signing Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to compliment one of the best rotations in the game.  I felt that they had done everything necessary to be the favorites in the Central and I even went as far as to picking them to win the World Series. 

Fast forward to the end of 2020, the Reds did slip into the playoffs only thanks to the face that were expanded then proceeded to get completely shutout despite the pitching staff doing everything is was supposed to.  It was the offense that pulled a no-call no-show.  Other than a late season stretch where they actually started to play some good baseball, it was a disappointing season for the Reds.  So, now it’s time to re-evaluate this team and see if there is any chance that they can pull it together in 2021 and make the playoffs.  But I know what every one thinking and i’s the elephant in the room, and that’s Trevor Bauer, the 2020 Cy Young Award winner, leaving in Free Agency to the Dodgers.  This obviously doesn’t help the Reds rotation but, as I’ll get to, they still have one of the better 1-2 punches in the game and I think this can still be a very good team. 

Additions

• RP Sean Doolittle

• RP Edgar Garcia

• 2B Max Shrock

• RP Jeff Hoffman (Trade – Rockies)

• RP Noe Ramirez (Trade – Angels)

• RP Cionel Perez (Trade – Astros)

• SP Hector Perez (Trade – Blue Jays)

• RP Josh Osich (Non-Roster Invitee)

• RP Shane Carle (Non-Roster Invitee)

• RP Braden Shipley (Non-Roster Invitee)

• OF Nicky Delmonico (Non-Roster Invitee)

• RP Jesse Biddle (Non-Roster Invitee)

• OF Dwight Smith (Non-Roster Invitee)

Josh Osich

Looking at some of their additions, the Reds have been a little busier than it seems because they’re not exactly signing top tier free agents like last season, but they’ve making some interesting trades and signings, including a very familiar name, relief pitcher Sean Doolittle.  The 34-year older reliever was recently a big-name closer for the Nats before losing some velocity and having a terrible 2020 season.  As recently as the 2019 postseason, he was a force, yielding just two runs and 6 hits in over 10 innings of work and finishing off four of the Nationals 12 postseason games, helping lead the team to a World Series Championship.  And going all the way back to 2012, he was one of the best relievers in the game.  Unfortunately, 2020 was injury riddled for Doolittle and his fastball dropped from the mid-90’s to just over 90 MPH.  Nevertheless, if he can get healthy for 2021, he will provide some much-needed left-handed relief from the Reds bullpen. 

The Reds also picked up Noe Ramirez but that was at the expense of their closer Raisel Iglesias.  This trade was a sign that the Reds were not going to go for it in 2021 like they did in 2020 and so in that way it was a disappointing move that appeared to be a salary dump.  However, Noe Ramirez did pitch well in 2020 and in 21 appearances gave up 15 hits with a 3 ERA.  He’s got a career 9.8 strikeout per nine rate he’s still a downgrade from Iglesias, who saved at least 55 games 3 straight seasons then had a great 2020 as well.  The hope was that they were cutting costs in order to afford a big free agent but here we are approaching Spring Training and it hasn’t happened yet.  There are few nice players still available though.

Other than that, there’s several decent players that have been signed but no serious impact players.  Josh Osich was a guy who had great stuff as a Giants prospect but has never really panned out in the big leagues.  Edgar Garcia is a former Phillies prospect to keep an eye on, he has serious strikeout stuff but also serious control issues.  They also got Dwight Smith, who used to be a big prospect in the Jays system.  Jeff Hoffman came over from the Rockies in a trade and he’ll get a crack at the rotation and finally, Max Schrock was signed to be a utility infielder and backup guy.  So, not a very eventful offseason so far.

Lineup

1.       Shogo Akiyama/Nick Senzel CF

2.       Nick Castellanos RF

3.       Joey Votto 1B

4.       Eugenio Suarez 3B

5.       Mike Moustakas 2B

6.       Jesse Winker LF

7.       Jose Garcia/Kyle Farmer SS

8.       Tucker Barnhart/Tyler Stephenson C

Kyle Farmer

The starting lineup is not much different than last season although now Jose Garcia may be ready to start as the opening day shortstop but if not, Kyle Farmer was re-signed so he can also play shortstop while Garcia gets more time in Triple A if deemed necessary.  Freddy Galvis signed with the Orioles if you’re wondering what happened to him. 

But let’s start from the top with Shogo Akiyama, a great all-around talent who didn’t exactly take Cincinnati by storm.  He hit just .245 without a home run but if you followed his stats during 2020, you’ll know he was down in the 100’s for a large portion of the season.  Over the last 25 games of the year, he hit .319 with a .453 on-base and looked like he had found a comfort zone.  That tells me there’s a good chance he will be better in 2021 after a year of experience in the states. He also provides great defense and speed.  Righty Nick Senzel will also see time in the outfield and could platoon.  

Next is Nick Castellanos, who has a beautiful swing that generates power to all fields. He crushed 14 home runs in just 218 at bats in 2020 although he hit just .225.  Over a full season, he should easily top 35 home runs.  Joey Votto has been slowly declining with age and at 37 I don’t know what to expect, except that Votto will get on base.  He has an elite eye and feel for the strike zone and despite a .226 batting average in 2020, he had a .354 on base and .800 OPS. 

Eugenio Suarez can demolish a fastball but struggled with breaking balls.  He’ll have to improve that .202 batting average, but of his 40 hits last season, 15 were home runs.  Let’s hope that with a full Spring Training and semi-normal season he will be much better.  Mike Moustakas is another power bat who will be looking for a much better season after hitting just .230 with 8 home runs in 2020.  He is a career .251 hitter but is almost always good for at least 30 bombs over a full season.  Jesse Winker is another nice power bat but struggles against lefties so the Reds may want to find him a platoon partner maybe Aristedes Aquino who went 8 for 47 in 2020 but has shown massive power in the past. 

Jose Garcia is a big time prospect from Cuba.  He’s a strong fielder and has shown promise at plate but skipped a bunch of minor league levels last year so he might need more development as I was saying.  He can hit for power and steal bases.  If he doesn’t start the year in the lineup, it will be likely Kyle Farmer, who hit .266 in 2020 with a .329 OBP and can play almost any position including catcher.  Speaking of catcher, Tucker Barnhart will be behind the dish and he’s a two-time Gold Glover but is a lefty batter and has almost no chance against lefty pitchers.  Tyler Stephenson should get the bulk of starts against lefties and may even take over the regular starting role if last year’s performance is any indication.  He went 5-for-17 with 2 home runs and based on the 2020 performance of this lineup, offense may take priority over defense. 

I honestly still like this lineup and like I said in my last preview about the Cubs, I don’t believe 2020.  2020 was the weirdest season and year I’ve ever witnessed and not only did these players not get to finish their normal Spring Training and get ripped away from their routine, there’s also some advanced metrics that indicate the Reds were better than the raw numbers say.  Their BABIP (Batting Average Balls In Play) average was historically bad and by far the worst in all of the baseball. It is for the most part a luck metric.  It says that the Reds when they hit the ball in play without hitting a home run were horrible at getting base hits. 

And if you think they weren’t hitting the ball hard, they were in the Top 10 with barrel percentage, meaning they were barreling up the ball.  They did get shutout in 2 games in the playoffs - against elite Braves pitchers, but still – that’s not a good sign.  But I do think this Reds offense had some bad luck combined with some slumpage due to the weird season and overall they will be a lot better in 2021.  With that mind, I’m not going to give this lineup a terrible grade, but at same time I think it does lack guys who can get on-base, who can hit over .300 and can do a lot more than just go deep.  Votto is one but as I said, he’s past his prime and just not going to be as good as he once was.  So, all that said, I’m going to give this lineup a C+.  

Rotation

1.       Sonny Gray

2.       Luis Castillo

3.       Tyler Mahle

4.       Wade Miley

5.       Michael Lorenzen

Jeff Hoffman

Tejay Antone

Tyler Mahle

Jumping into the rotation, unfortunately, it’s not going to be as strong as it was in 2020 but as I said, it’s still impressive at the top.  Sonny Gray has an elite slider and 3 other pitches he can throw all with movement and impressed again in 2020 with an 11.6 strikeout rate.  Then another elite arm, Luis Castillo, who is one of the few starters in the league who can consistently touch 100 MPH.  His changeup is faster than a lot of starters fastballs, and it’s a deadly changeup that drops right below hitters bats.  Tyler Mahle had a decent 2020 with a 3.59 ERA and an 11.3 strikeout rate and I think may be trending towards an even bigger breakout year in 2021.  He proved himself more than worthy of a rotation spot in 2020 and will be huge for the Reds in ’21.  After that, there’s Wade Miley, a cutter specialist who dealt with injury last season and wasn’t very effective.  He is 34 years old and was 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA for the Astros in 2019, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat that performance.  Finally, Michael Lorenzen is looking for another shot at the rotation and without the DH in 2021, he’ll also provide an MLB bat in the lineup when he starts.  He’s got high 90’s heat and had a 4.28 ERA last season. 

Unfortunately, after the first 3, this rotation has some question marks and will need some depth.  That’s where Jeff Hoffman comes in, who was the 9th overall pick in 2014 but has just never been very good at the MLB level.  Let’s just say his career ERA of 6.4 is almost 3 points better than his 2020 ERA.   Another option is youngster Tejay Antone, who was solid in the Minor Leagues and gave up just 20 hits in 35 big league innings in 2020 with 45 strikeouts.  If I had to guess, I think he’ll get more starts in 2021 than Hoffman and might even crack the Opening Day Rotation.

At the end of the day, this rotation could definitely use another decent name for 2021.  I don’t think the Reds are in the market for a Jake Arrieta but if they want to just add options for depth purposes which I think they should, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Rick Porcello and names like that are still out there.  As of now, because of the top 3 which I have full confidence in, I’m going to this rotation a decent grade.  But I don’t have a ton of faith that Wade Miley is gonna bring in ’21 and Michael Lorenzen is some one I’m a fan of but I don’t know if he’d better suited for the rotation or the bullpen so there are some question marks.  Tejay Antone does look pretty impressive though, so all that said, I’m going to give this starting rotation a B-.

Bullpen

• Amir Garrett

• Sean Doolittle

• Lucas Sims

• Sal Romano

• Noe Ramirez

• Jose De Leon

• Brandon Bailey

• Edgar Garcia

• Art Warren

• Hector Perez

• Josh Osich (Non-Roster)

• Shane Carle (Non-Roster)

• Braden Shipley (Non-Roster)

• Jesse Biddle (Non-Roster)

Noe Ramirez

Assuming Sean Doolittle doesn’t show up to Spring Training hot and take over the closer’s role, I think Amir Garrett is the man.  This 6 foot 5 239 pound machine figured things out after a couple so-so seasons and now with mainly focusing on the slider and retiring his changeup, he’s tough to barrel up.  Opponents have hit .125 off his slider over the past 2 years and in 2020 he had a 2.45 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 18 innings.  Doolittle is a bit of a Wild Card but I think it was a great signing just in case he has another big year left in him.  Lucas Sims has one of the best spinning curve balls in the game and gave up just 13 hits last season in over 25 innings of work with a 2.45 ERA.  Their bullpen as a whole had a 2.86 ERA over the last 23 games of the 2020 season and will have long relief options for the guys who don’t make the rotation such as possibly Jeff Hoffman or Michael Lorenzen.  There could also be some hidden weapons in guys like Jose De Leon and Art Warren who don’t have much of a big league sample size but showed dominance in the minors.  Overall, I think the Reds bullpen will still be good and it might need to be because there will be a lot of very close games competing with teams like the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers.  If they kept Iglesias over Ramirez, I’d probably give this pen an A- but with that downgrade it drops to to a B, but then the potential of Doolittle bumps up again to the final score for this bullpen – a B+.

So there you have it, the Cincinnati Reds are still a very good team and could potential win that division if the Cardinals should falter.  I think the Cubs, although they just signed Arrieta and are obviously decent, are not as good as last season.  I think the Brewers are not especially scary.  And the Pirates… well, I don’t want to be mean.  But with a great top of the rotation and a solid bullpen and a lot of power bats that I think will bounce back in 2021, look for the Reds to be in at least a wild card hunt in 2021 for the majority of the season and maybe they’ll be back in October.  I’m going to give this team overall a B-.

2021 Chicago Cubs Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

Today we are going to jump back into the National League Central and talk about one of the most successful teams during the 2020 regular season and that is the Chicago Cubs.  This is a team that went 108 years without a title and finally broke the Curse of the Billy Goat in 2016 with an amazing World Series Championship, a great moment to witness – unless you’re a Cardinals fan or something – and now 5 years later, the Cubs still pretty good and won the division in 2020 but the question is – is this team getting better for 2021 or worse?

Departures

• OF Albert Almora Jr. (FA – Mets)

• C Victor Caritini (Trade - Padres)

• SP Tyler Chatwood (FA – Blue Jays)

• SP Yu Darvish (Trade - Padres)

• INF Daniel Descalso (FA)

• RP Jeremy Jeffress (FA)

• 2B Jason Kipnis (FA)

• SP Jon Lester (FA - Nationals)

• SP Jose Quintana (FA - Angels)

• 1B Jose Martinez (FA - Mets)

• OF Kyle Schwarber (FA - Nationals)

• OF Billy Hamilton (FA)

Some of the moves by Jed Hoyer and the front office have caused some concern to put it mildly for Cubs fans out there.  In fact, the ones I know are mostly pissed.  Now, for most of these previews I don’t talk about the departures because there’s always a few free agents gone or few guys that get claimed or traded but more important is the arrivals.  However, for the Cubs, we have to look at some of these departures which include Yu Darvish, one of the better pitchers in the game, who was sent to San Diego for some decent but extremely young prospects and Zach Davies.  This move did not seem like a sensible move for a team that just won their division and should be trying to compete again in ’21 instead of building for the future.  They also failed to re-sign free agents such as Kyle Schwarber, who’s heading to DC along with Jon Lester, Jose Martinez, who signed a Minor Deal with the Mets, and Tyler Chatwood, who is heading to Toronto.  Oh, and Jose Quintana is also an Angel now, meaning their 2020 Rotation is almost entirely gone.  One of their better relievers, Jeff Jeffress is a free agent as well.

Arrivals

• SP Zach Davies

• SP Trevor Williams

• SP Kohl Stewart

• C Austin Romine

• OF Philip Ervin

• RP Jonathan Holder

• 3B Matt Duffy

• RP Andrew Chafin (Re-Signed)

• OF Jake Marisnik (Per Sources)

• Of Joc Pederson

• IF Sergio Alcantara (Waivers – Tigers)

• RP Robert Stock

• RP Matt Dermody

• RP Trevor Kelley

• RP James Borque

Matt Duffy

To replace all that was lost, the Cubs, as mentioned did get Zach Davis in the Darvish trade but despite a nice 2020, Davies is no Darvish and I think this is definitely a downgrade.  I do like Davies and he has a great changeup and may even have All Star talent at times but Darvish has Cy Young talent.  Still, I get the move in a way – you’re getting a good pitcher for your rotation to replace Darvish and a few prospects as well for the future.  But for a fanbase that just watched their team win their division, it doesn’t look good at all.  To help replace some of the other lost starters, the Cubs also signed Trevor Williams, who was one of the better-looking starters in the division in 2018 when he went 14-10 with a 3.11 ERA and a shutout.  Then, he slowly fell apart, culminating with a 2-8 record last season and a 6.18 ERA while giving up a league high 15 home runs.  I think this Cardinals fan tweet sums up the fear this move strikes in other NL Central Teams.

Oh God!! What will we do!?!?!

— Stephen Guats (@Guats85) January 30, 2021

Kohl Stewart was also signed and he was the 4th overall pick in 2013 but has not put it together at the big-league level.  However, the deal is for $700,000 and it’s a major league contract so he will be there to provide either staring depth or long relief or best case scenario, he actually has a break out year for the Cubbies.  Other than that, the impact players the Cubs have picked up include of course Joc Pederson, who I’ll talk about when I get to the lineup, but more recently they have reportedly penned another outfielder, Jake Marisnick to a deal for at least 1.5 million but there is a $4 million option and even more that he can earn in incentives.  He is a glove first guy who will provide excellent defense and speed assuming his hamstring injuries from last year are taken care of.  He should be a nice addition to that outfield that already has Joc Pederson and Jason Heyward along with Phil Ervin, who was also signed in Free Agency. 

Former Giant Matt Duffy got a Minor League Deal and he’s still trying to get back to his 2015 self when he was second in the Rookie of the Year voting.  They also grabbed Sergio Alcantara off waivers from Detroit, he’s a great defensive shortstop but doesn’t offer much hard contact or power at the plate.  And finally, the Cubs have been shopping for bullpen depth with Jonathan Holder and guys like Robert Stock and a few others – they’ll all compete in Spring Training for bullpen roles.  The Cubs also singed Shelby Miller who could start or come out of the pen. Their bullpen lacks long-term big league experience but there is some talent and a ton of options so the Cubs should be able to build at least a decent pen and we’ll get to that shortly.

Lineup

1.       Ian Happ CF

2.       Anthony Rizzo 1B

3.       Kris Bryant 3B

4.       Willson Contreras C

5.       Javier Baez SS

6.       Joc Pederson LF

7.       Nico Hoerner/David Bote 2B

8.       Jason Heyward RF

Willson Contreras

The Cubs lineup is still very good and could be even better in 2021 after some down seasons.  Of course, that could change quickly if they trade Bryant or other key bats here.  For now, assuming this is what we get, it’s not bad at all.  Switch hitter Ian Happ had a nice season and could be primed to hit close to if not 30 home runs in 2021.  He’s got great bat speed and his .879 OPS over the past two seasons is the best on the entire Cubs team.   Anthony Rizzo is a patient and excellent hitter who is usually consistent but had a down year in 2020.  Regardless, he always has elite defense and will more than likely bounce back with the bat in ’21. 

Kris Bryant is an interesting case – he is obviously a superstar and former MVP but for had a terrible 2020 hitting just .206 with 4 home runs.  He struck out in 27% of his at bats but was dealing with nagging injuries and will probably be much better in 2021, but I don’t know if we’ll see his 2016 MVP season again or not.  There has been speculation that he hasn’t been the same since he got hit in the head in 2018.  I hope he can get healthy and fully productive again for the Cubs, but time will tell.  Willson Contreras is above average with power at the plate and has gotten better behind the plate at framing pitches and overall defense.  He hit 24 bombs in 2019 and should be able to match that in ’21.  Javy Baez is a five-tool guy who also had a terrible 2020 offensively but with a full Spring Training and a more focused approach trying not to get too pull-happy, I think he’ll be back to his regular self in 2019.  No matter what, he’ll bring elite and flash defense and is one of the most exciting players in the game.

Joc Pederson is the biggest free agent name added so far this offseason and I think he will thrive in Chicago, not worrying about being a platoon guy or 4th outfielder.  He will be an everyday player and that’s what he deserves after hitting 36 home runs in 2019 while working 50 walks and playing good defense in the outfield.  This is a big signing for the Cubs, who needed some extra power in that lineup.  Nico Hoerner is a 2018 first round pick who showed some power in his rookie year with a .282 average but hit none in 2020 with a .222 average.  He’ll get a chance to be a regular in 2021 but if not it will be David Bote, who has impressive advanced metrics although his standard numbers don’t look that great.  He can get on base and has shown more power than Hoerner so far and is good defensively. 

Finally, Jason Heyward finishes off the lineup and he actually had a great 2020, with a career best walk rate and lowest career chase rate.  His .392 on base percentage was his highest since his rookie year.  This lineup, like so many, is hard to judge because while it looks great with guys like Baez, Bryant and Rizzo in there, if we’re to believe their 2020 performances, it’s not so great.  I don’t really believe 2020 for the most part.  I think Baez is going to be awesome again and Rizzo will be much better.  Bryant will be better too although I’m worried that he may not be able to get back to the superstar talent he was during his first couple of seasons.  Still, with Happ at the top, Rizzo-Bryant-Contreras-Baez in the middle and when you get through all that, you have to deal with Joc Pederson’s power, I have to love this lineup.  Since I think most of these guys will rebound from rough 2020’s, I’m going to give this lineup a B+.

Rotation

1.       Kyle Hendricks

2.       Zach Davies

3.       Alec Mills

4.       Trevor Williams

5.       Adbert Alzolay

Tyson Miller

Shelby Miller

Kohl Stewart

Now, to examine the rotation and see if it’s still any good after losing so many great starters.  The top starts with Kyle Hendricks, who may not have 100 mile per hour heat but he does have a sick changeup that allows him to make that high 80’s fastball look a lot faster.  He can also mix in a great sinker but his main asset is his unbelievable command.  He’s a Greg Maddux type who hits his spots and carves up batters.  After that is Zach Davies, the newcomer from San Diego, who like I said is good and has a great changeup.  He has been up and down over his career though and from start to start you never know if he’ll be great or terrible.  After that is Alec Mills, who no-hit the Brewers last year and also relies on a heavy sinker.  His career strikeout ratio is impressive for a guy who doesn’t throw super hard and he usually keeps contact soft.  However, like Davies, he’s susceptible to a rough start more often than you would like and based on a .233 batting average on balls in play, he could be in line for some regression. 

The Cubs tried to get more experience with Trevor Williams, whose experience at Wrigley Field amounts to a 2-6 record with a 7.09 ERA while allowing 8 home runs and 18 walks in 33 innings.  Like I said, he was awesome in 2018 but he has been terrible since then and anything I try to say positive about this signing is just putting lipstick on a pig.  He could be better with a new environment and new pitching coaches but until I see an improvement, I’m not counting on Williams to bring much to Chicago.  One guy they do have who has a live arm and strikeout stuff is Adbert Alzolay, who has 42 strikeouts in 33 big league innings.  He just needs to work on his control and could be a legit pitcher in that rotation.  Tyson Miller and Shelby Miller will also compete for rotation spots.  Tyson is a prospect with a decent minor league career but nothing that blows you away while Shelby is a veteran who really hasn’t been that great since 2013. 

The bottom line is, and I hate to say it, I think rotation wasn’t good enough to part with Darvish and expect to compete in 2021, especially after losing Quintana, Lester and Chatwood to Free Agency.  Kyle Hendricks is awesome, Zach Davies and Alec Mills are good but after that, it’s a bunch of question marks – veterans who have been terrible and youngsters who are unproven.  Best case scenario, it could be a decent rotation but as for an honest prediction, I think it might be a rough season for the rotation in Chicago.  I’m going to give this rotation a C-.

Bullpen

• Craig Kimbrel

• Rowan Wick

• Brad Wieck

• Dan Winkler

• Kyle Ryan

• Duane Underwood Jr.

• James Norwood

• Jason Adam

• Robert Stock

• Dillon Maples

• Andrew Chafin

• Justin Steele

• Jonathan Holder

• Kohl Stewart

• Matt Dermody

• Trevor Kelley

• James Borque

• Gary Fenter

Craig Kimbrel

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the bullpen, which might need to be very deep to help take care of some of those starters I just talked about.  The closer role might still be Craig Kimbrell’s for now, but he’ll have to verify that in Spring Training this year.  Kimbrel was once one of the league’s dominant closers but he’s been more or less a disaster since joining the Cubs, although his strikeout numbers are still there.  Overall, his fastball velocity has dropped and his command has been off but he did settle down last season after getting lit up in his first four appearances.  For the remaining 14 appearances, he had a 1.42 ERA and an insane strikeout rate.  If that version of Kimbrel shows up in 2021, the Dr. Jekkyl version, the Cubs will have a legit closer, but if the Mr. Hyde version shows up, they’re going to have to find a new closer. 

Rowan Wick and Jason Adam are also very solid and should both be able to handle high leverage situations.  Wick has a curveball with a ton of bite and it’s tough to touch.  Dan Winkler was great last season with a 2.95 ERA and was solid with the Braves before that.  Jonathan Holder should be okay for the Cubs – he has 157 big league appearances under his belt with a 4.38 career ERA.  Like I said, besides Holder, Andrew Chafin and Kimbrell, this bullpen is very young and lacks serious big-league experience. That might not bode well as a bullpen trying to support the rotation I just talked about.  I would definitely be concerned if I was Cubs fan about the pitching.  Grading this rotation is tough because so much rides on how Craig Kimbrel will perform but assuming he at least resembles the dominant pitcher he used to be and what we saw for the later part of 2020, I’d say it’s a decent bullpen but it could use more experienced depth and more guys who have gotten it done at the MLB level.  I’m going to give this bullpen a C.  

So there you have it and the Chicago Cubs are a team that I’m simply not overly impressed with going into 2021.  That being said, they’ve improved their farm system and they have some serious talent on the way like outfielder Brennen Davis and lefty starter Brailyn Marquez, but as for the team that will be on that Opening Day roster, I’m seriously concerned, especially about the pitching and that’s kind of weird, because the offense struggled in 2020 and the pitching is what made up for that.  But with the loss of so many great arms, I don’t think that’ll be case in 2021.  I’m going to the Cubs as an overall team a C.

2021 Miami Marlins Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

Entering 2020 last season, the Miami Marlins had a questionable future at best and a bleak present yet they came out of the gates hot and built enough of a cushion to fairly easily make it into the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.  That was despite a Covid-19 outbreak that completely derailed their roster.  And as we get ready for 2021, the Marlins have already made some big moves, maybe none bigger than hiring former Dodgers and Yankees assistant GM Kim Ng as their new General Manager. 

So, what are the chances that the Marlins can repeat their 2020 results in 2021?  I think the general consensus will be that over a 162 game schedule and considering the improvements we’ve seen from the rest of the division this offseason, it’s unlikely the Marlins will be a playoff team again.  But before I officially say that, let’s take a look at this team from top to bottom including some of their newest acquisitions such as former San Francisco Giant prospect Adam Duvall, a much needed power hitter for Miami. 

Additions:

• Adam Duvall

• Anthony Bass

• Adam Cimber

• Ross Detwiler

• Sandy Leon

Duvall made a huge impact after being traded to the Reds, hitting 33 home runs in 2016 and being selected to the All Star Team and Home Run Derby.  He followed that with 31 bombs in 2017 before getting traded to Atlanta in 2018.  Since then, he hasn’t been as potent and even spent most of 2019 in the Minor Leagues where hit 32 home runs, earning a promotion to the Braves as helping them in some big moments.  Between Triple A and the Big Leagues, he actually crushed 42 home runs in 2019 then hit 16 last year in only 190 at bats.  The main downside is that his career batting average is only .233 and he’s not the best all around player.  The Marlins already have a few guys who don’t get on base enough as I’ll talk about.  Still, he brings some much needed power to this Marlins lineup.

Other additions for the Marlins include Anthony Bass, who has been consistently solid over the past 3 seasons with the Cubs, Mariners and Jays, holding an ERA around 3.5.  Last season, he picked up 7 saves while holding opponents to a .189 batting average.  He signed a 2-year deal to pitch out of the Marlins bullpen.  Another bullpen piece will be Adam Cimber, who came over from the Indians for 100 thousand dollars. Although he doesn’t throw especially hard, he can produce groundballs and had a 3.97 ERA last season and 3.89 for his career.

Also the former first round pick Ross Detwiler was signed to Major League Deal.  Although he never really turned out how the Nationals had hoped, he has built a nice 12-year career and had a nice 3.2 ERA with the White Sox last season.  Sandy Leon will also be in camp to try to compete for a job as a backup catcher.  So, the Marlins have really tried to focus on their bullpen this offseason with Bass, Cimber and Detwiler and have now added some definite power with Duvall.

Sandy Leon

Lineup

1.       Corey Dickerson LF

2.       Starling Marte CF

3.       Jesus Aguilar 1B

4.       Brian Anderson 3B

5.       Adum Duvall RF

6.       Miguel Rojas SS

7.       Jonathan Berti 2B

8.       Jorge Alfaro C

Miguel Rojas

Now to take a look at a potential staring lineup for the Marlins.  Leading off, we have Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately had a bit of a power outage in 2020 with just 7 homers in 210 at bats.  His average exit velocity dropped as well and although he still great defensively, the Marlins would love to see a bounce back year with the bat.  Starling Marte is going to be extra motivated in his last year before free agency and looked amazing in Arizona last year although his power numbers have been down as well.  He still brings defense, great speed and I feel like he’s going to have a big 2021. 

Jesus Aguilar is still trying to repeat his monster 2018 to prove it wasn’t just a one year fluke.  However, he did have a career high batting average in 2020 and drove in 34 runs in just 51 games.  Unlike Marte, he can work a walk and had a .352 on base percentage.  Brian Anderson strikes out a lot but brings 25+ home run power and excellent defense to the table.  And then you have Adam Duvall, sort of a similar player but can potentially bring 35+ home runs to the table. 

Miguel Rojas is a good defender with amazing range at shortstop and hit .304 in 2020 with a .392 OBP.  He’s a smart contact hitter and will occasionally go deep.  Jonathan Berti has supersonic speed on the basepaths and a great eye at the plate.  He gets moved around a lot and if he find a comfort zone somewhere, I think he’s a great asset to have while he’s still young enough to run like he does.  Over a full season, if allowed to, I think he can steal 50 bases.  Finally, Jorge Alfaro could be the primary catcher but really struggled last season, working only 4 walks in 100 plate appearances, and having problems defensively as well.  He could lose the starting job to Chad Wallach. 

Overall, there are definitely some question marks in this lineup.  Corey Dickerson needs to have a little more power than he has lately, and it would be nice if Brian Anderson cuts back on the strikeouts and becomes a little more selective.  What kind of season will Starling Marte have or Jesus Aguilar?  Even newcomer Adam Duvall is not exactly guaranteed to be awesome as I mentioned, he’s been sent down to Triple A as recently as 2019.  Nevertheless, there is elite speed, power, and some on-base ability with guys like Rojas and Aguilar.  It’s certainly not an embarrassing lineup; it’s not just not on-par with some of the others I’ve looked at in the East like the Braves, Phillies and Mets.  I’m going to give this lineup a C. 

Bench

• Garrett Cooper

• Lewin Diaz

• Chad Wallach

• Jazz Chisholm

• Lewis Brinson

• Magneuris Sierra

• Monte Harrison

• Harold Ramirez

 A quick glance at the bench shows some decent options there like Garret Cooper, who had a career year in 2020 with a 34% line drive rate while hitting the ball to all fields.  Dodgers and Padres are showing interest in him so he could be gone by Opening Day.  Lewin Diaz hit 27 home runs in the Minors in 2019 and Monte Harrison is another speedster who could be a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner.  Brinson and Sierra are both solid options as well although neither has really shown the ability to hit big league pitching like the Marlins hoped they would.  Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has shown promise in the Minors but still hasn’t shown it at the MLB level.  All around, it’s an okay bench but due to the lack of success at the MLB level, I’ll give it a C-.

 Rotation

1.       Sandy Alcantara

2.       Sixto Sanchez

3.       Pablo Lopez

4.       Elieser Hernandez

5.       Trevor Rogers

6.       Braxton Garrett

Moving onto the rotation, this is actually a very impressive young group of guys.  Sandy Alcantra can hit 97 MPH and has been improving each year with his strikeout rate.  In seven starts last year, he gave up just 14 runs and ended up with a 3.00 ERA.  Sixto Sanchez is entering his first full season and the sky’s the limit with this guy.  He can get his riding four-seamer up to 100 and is also a great athlete who fields his position well.  He mixes in some other pitches as well to keep hitters off balance.  I expect Sanchez to improve in 2021 and be a major arm in this rotation.  Next is Pablo Lopez, who was super impressive for most of 2020, ending up with 59 strikeouts in 57 innings and a 3.61 ERA.  He has a fantastic changeup with movement, and I predict will be even better in 2021.

Trevor Rogers

Elieser Hernandez has a sick slider and attacks hitters with confidence even though his fastball isn’t as electric as some of the other guys in this rotation.  He has a great strikeout rate and in 6 starts last year he had a 3.16 ERA, striking out 34 and walking just 5.  Finally, there’s Trevor Rogers, a 2017 first round pick who had a 2.9 ERA in 23 starts in the Minor Leagues in 2019.  He was not too impressive in 2020 but still has great strikeout stuff and extraordinarily strong changeup.  There is a good chance he settles down and has a solid 2021.  If any of these guys falter, Braxton Garrett is waiting in the wings and has fantastic strikeout stuff. From top to bottom, this is far from a bad rotation.  There are no Jacob Degroms here but with all the young talent, this rotation has a very high ceiling.  I expect this rotation to keep games close often in 2021.  I’m going to give the Miami Marlins starting rotation a B.

 Bullpen

• Yimi Garcia

• James Hoyt

• Richard Bleier

• Anthony Bass

• Jordon Holloway

• Jeff Brigham

• Daniel Castano

• Ross Detwiler

• Nick Neidert

• Adam Cimber

 Here is the bullpen and I already discussed Bass, Cimber and Detwiler who all bring something to party even though none are exactly elite.  Yimi Garcia is likely your closer and he’s got a great slider and seems to be pretty comfortable in Miami where he gave up just 1 run in 15 innings last year.  James Hoyt is a guy who seems like is always stashed away in Triple A but when he gets a chance at the big league level, he dominates.  He had a 1.23 ERA for Miami last year in limited opportunities.  Richard Bleier is a lefty who was picked up in desperation when half the team had Covid last year and he took full advantage, walking just 4 of the 52 batters he faced with a ground ball rate of 72% and a 2.63 ERA.  So, the Marlins have found some talent and have gone shopping this offseason for more, making their bullpen actually more than decent.  There is a strong likelihood that some of those ERA’s and percentages won’t be so impressive after a 162 game season, but still, I think this bullpen is pretty stable and should be able to help the Marlins win plenty of games in 2021.  All that said, there is a lack of sustained success and for that, I can’t give them too high of a grade.  But based on recent success and the offseason signings, I’m going to give this bullpen a B-.

So, there you have it for the Miami Marlins.  After a full evaluation of this team, do I think they can repeat their 2020 success?  I would say probably not, only because of the insane competition in the National League East and the grind of an entire 162 game season will probably expose their lack of star talent and extreme youth.  However, I do think this is a team will win more than just a few games in ’21 and perhaps even be close to .500.  As an entire team, I’m going to give the Miami Marlins a C+.

2021 New York Mets Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

After years of frustration, the New York Mets have been sold and Steve Cohen is now in charge.  Fans fully expected him to make an array of moves this offseason, including signing a variety of top free agents, in order to become favorites in the National League East.  His presence was felt very quickly after he re-organized the entire Front Office and then traded for one of the best players in the game, Francisco Lindor, who came from Cleveland along with solid pitcher, Carlos Carrasco.  We’ll talk about both in a few minutes.

This Mets team already had a strong core from 2019 – in fact, I wrongly predicted them to win the N.L East in 2019.  I loved their rotation and thought the bullpen would be much improved when they signed Dellin Betances, who went on to struggle with control and elbow issues in 2020.  Now, I have to decide if I should pick them again to win the division in 2021.  Before making that decision, let’s do a preview of this team including their new arrivals, the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen. 

Additions

• Albert Almora Jr.

• Jonathan Villar

• Aaron Loup

• Brandon Drury

• Jose Martinez

• Joey Lucchesi

• Carlos Carrasco

• Francisco Lindor

• Trevor May

• James McCann

• Jose Peraza

• Mallex Smith

• Arodys Vizcaino

• Josh Winckowski

• Yennsy Diaz

• Sean Reid-Foley

Most recently, the Mets have signed a couple nice names to add on to a roster that is already become increasingly stacked.  Veteran outfielder and great defender Albert Almora Jr. was reportedly signed a few days ago to add some depth to the outfielder but now the Mets have reportedly penned a much bigger name in Jonathan Villar. Villar has mostly been a middle infielder but can also play other positions including the outfield and he can also create havoc on the basepaths, stealing 40 bases as recently as 2019.  He stole 16 bases in 52 games in 2020. Villar will give the Mets a ton of flexibility and provide an excellent backup to Lindor, not to mention he has some pop, hitting 24 home runs in 2019. 

They’ve actually signed about 7 million Free Agents, mostly to Minor League Deals but some of the recognizable names include Jose Martinez, a guy who doesn’t have the best defense but can actually rake and .305 with a .364 on base for the Cardinals in 152 games back in 2018.  He has a career .356 on-base-percentage and after he struggled through 2020, the Mets were able to get him on a Minor League deal.  They addressed a shortage of solid lefties in the bullpen by signing lefty Aaron Loup and also got righty Trevor May, who was electric in 2020, striking out 38 in 23.1 innings with a hard heater and plus slider.  James McCann was their biggest free agent pickup so far and brings power and solid framing skills to the Mets.  He had an impressive .360 on base percentage last year.

Lineup

1.       Brandon Nimmo CF

2.       Jeff McNeil 2B

3.       Francisco Lindor SS

4.       Michael Conforto RF

5.       Pete Alonso 1B

6.       Dominic Smith LF

7.       J.D. Davis 3B

8.       James McCann

Dom Smith

Here is one version of the Mets lineup – obviously, it’s going to be shuffled around some but just going through the threats here, it is pretty intimidating.  Brandon Nimmo has a disciplined approach that makes him an ideal leadoff man.  He had a .404 on base percentage last season and doesn’t strike out too much.  He’s not a great defensive centerfielder, but there is excellent depth with guys like Almora Jr. who can be a late inning defensive replacement.  Jeff NcNeil is a career .319 hitter with pop who punishes fastballs and is a huge asset in that lineup.  Then of course, the man who needs no introduction, Francisco Lindor.

He is coming off his worst season, but that can be said for a ton of elite players – Christian Yelich comes to mind.  The 2020 season was not only weird and shortened, but Spring Training was stopped dead in its tracks and never properly resumed.  It was different for everyone and I fully expect that Lindor will be back to his regular self in 2021.  His hard-hit percentages and walk rate among other stats were still in line with his prior stats and he has shown over a long period of time that he is one of the best in the game.  This trade was massive for the Mets, who needed to land an elite player this offseason and succeeded.

Michael Conforto had a great 2020, hitting .322 with 9 homers and a .412 on-base-percentage.  Even if he can’t repeat that performance, he’s good for close to if not over 30 home runs over a full season and was probably the best all-around hitter on the team before landing Lindor.  Pete Alonso is of course an absolute beast who smashed 53 home runs in his Rookie of the Year 2019 campaign.  He declined some last year, but is always a threat to go deep at any moment.  Dom Smith was in MVP talks at certain points during 2020.  Even if he doesn’t have MVP skills, he at least has All Star talent and ended up with a .316 batting average in 2020, leading the team in slugging and OPS-plus.  His defense is questionable at best and that goes for a few of these guys, but when offense is this good, I think you let that slide and hope the runs produced easily outweigh any defensive miscues. 

J.D. Davis is another example of some one who has struggled defensively, but his bat should make up for that.  He hit .307 with 22 home runs in 2019 and even though his average dropped in 2020, he actually got on-base more, raising his OBP from .369 to .371.  Finally, James McCann is the new catcher and since the start of 2019, comparing him to other catchers, only Wilson Contreras and Yasmani Grandal have had higher OPS-plus figures while only J.T. Realmuto has had a better WAR.  His defense may not be elite but he has improved his framing and receiving skills and should be a major upgrade for the Mets behind the dish.

Overall, this is one of the best 1-8 lineups in the National League, because there are no major offensive weakness.  Every hitter is threat to at least get on base if not worse.  There is power all over the lineup and elite talents like Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith and Pete Alonso.  The only reason to not give it an A+ is because of the lack of two-way players.  But the strong offense should more than make up for the defensive weaknesses and it’s not like anybody is just embarrassing defensively – they can all catch and throw a baseball.  Besides, the new additions like Jonathan Villar and Albert Almora Jr. will be able to help defensively, especially in the late innings.  I’m going to give this lineup an A.

Rotation

1.       Jacob Degrom

2.       Carlos Carrasco

3.       Marcus Stroman

4.       David Peterson

5.       Joey Lucchesi

Although Trevor Bauer is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and just signed a massive contract with the Dodgers, it is my opinion that the best pitcher in the National League is Jacob Degrom.  He went full Sandy Foufax over the past 3 seasons, completely dominating and embarrassing hitters.  He struck out 104 guys in 68 innings, an unthinkable 13.8 strikeout per nine ratio.  Carlos Carrasco was the other guy in the Lindor deal, which is amazing in and of itself.  Carrasco came back from leukemia and had a career high 157 ERA-plus while striking out 29% of his opponents.  He’s a little older but based on his 2020 performance, I see no reason why he won’t dominate again in ’21. 

Marcus Stroman has been out of action for a while but he’s still just 29 and should still have an elite curve and solid sinker, producing nice groundballs for Lindor.  David Peterson had a nice rookie season, giving up just 36 hits in 50 innings while winning 6 and losing just 2.  The first round pick should be even better in 2021.  Finally, Joey Lucchesi could round out the rotation as a solid back-end starter whose curve-change combo that he calls the churve and he keeps hitters off balance with a funky delivery.  He showed great stuff until having an awful 2020. 

The Mets also got a few arms in the Steven Matz deal including Sean Reid-Foley, who has some experience starting but will likely start the year in the bullpen.  Josh Winckowski and Yenssy Diaz were also picked up to provide pitching depth.  Overall, the rotation isn’t the deepest but if it can stay healthy, I’m confident that it’s going to be solid at least 1-4.  Whether Luccehsi can bounce back from his 2020 remains to be seen, but one thing to note is that Noah Syndergaard should be back at some point this summer.  Overall, I think it’s obviously a strong rotation and the Mets may not be done and are still eyeing free agents like Jake Arrieta or maybe a Mike Leake.  As of now, because I’m not sure what to expect from Lucchesi or even Stroman, who has been out for a while, I’ll give this rotation a B+.  If they sign some one like Arrieta, bump that up to an A.

David Peterson

Bullpen

• Edwin Diaz

• Seth Lugo

• Trevor May

• Jeurys Familia

• Miguel Castro

• Dellin Betances

• Robert Gsellman

• Aaron Loup

• Drew Smith

• Brad Brach

• Jacob Barnes

• Stephen Tarpley

• Corey Oswalt

This bullpen has no shortage of solid options.  Last season, the big question mark was what Edwin Diaz would be able to bring after a terrible 2019 season.  He brought a 45.5% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA.  As long as he can keep his control under control, he should be excellent for the Mets.  Trevor May was a huge pickup and has a high spin fastball that’s very difficult to touch to go with his sick slider as I mentioned earlier.  Other than that, Miguel Castro is solid with a great stuff including a plus changeup and a 13.86 strikeout per nine rate last season. 

Dellin Betances had years of success with the Yankees before falling apart over the past couple years due to injuries.  If he can get some of his health and velocity back, he could be huge for the Mets but I’m starting to worry that we might never see it.  Aaron Loup I mentioned is a nice lefty pickup for the pen and, of course, Jeurys Familia is still there had a nice 2020 bounceback season.  He’s usually reliable enough still produces lots of groundballs although sometimes he has control issues and may be better suited for middle relief.  Finally, Seth Lugo gave up too many runs in 2020 but most of that was from games he started.  He was still great out of the pen and his strikeout rate was still awesome.  I expect him to be a full time reliever in 2021 and he’ll probably be excellent.

Those are enough key names to make this bullpen certainly a lot better than average.  There are some youngsters like Drew Smith who have shown great promise and the minors and may break out in 2021.   I think this bullpen is definitely well above average and I’m going to give it a B+.

Conclusion

The Mets are a team that is pretty much complete from top the bottom.  The only possible weakness may be their defense but that comes with the territory when those guys who struggle defensively can rake at the plate.  With the addition of a great starter like Carlos Carrasco, bullpen pieces like Tervor May, a superstar player in Francisco Lindor and guys like Jonathan Villar who can keep guys rested and play multiple positions, I think the Mets had a solid offseason despite not landing Trevor Bauer.  I’m almost certain they’ll sign one more impact starter like Jake Arrieta and that will make the rotation even better.  Overall, I’m going to give this Mets team an A-.

2021 Atlanta Braves Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

The Atlanta Braves come next in the Humm Baby Baseball 30 Clubs in 30 Days Series.  The Braves were 35-25 in 2020, winning their division.  They went on to give the Los Angeles Dodgers everything they wanted in the National League Championship Series before losing in seven games.  One of their key contributors was Marcell Ozuna and he was one of the biggest free agents on the market until news recently broke – he will be back in Atlanta on a 4 year deal worth $64 million with a 5th year option worth $16 million. 

Additions

• Marcell Ozuna

• Charlie Morton

• Drew Smyly

• Josh Tomlin

• Abraham Almonte

• Carl Edwards Jr. (Minor League Deal)

• Ehire Adrianza (Minor League Deal)

• Pablo Sandoval (Minor League Deal)

Abraham Almonte

Ozuna was instrumental in 2020, hitting .338 with 18 home runs in only 228 at bats.  He played in all 60 games, led the league it total bases and tore up the postseason as well.  It’s easy to see why the Braves wanted to bring Ozuna back, even if there’s no Designated Hitter in 2021.  Having him in that lineup is so important as he provides solid protection for Freddie Freeman.  Ozuna will be the starting left fielder assuming the DH is not brought back and for the Braves, I think it’s more than worth it to have Ozuna in that lineup even if he’s a bit of a liability in the outfield. 

Other signings so far this offseason include elite pitcher Charlie Morton and solid starter Drew Smyly who showed some great strikeout stuff in 2020 with the Giants last season.  Josh Tomlin, who was a reliable arm out of the bullpen and some one who could start on occasion was re-signed.  Switch hitter Abraham Almonte was signed to a non-guaranteed big-league deal so he’ll have a chance to make the team in Spring Training while Carl Edwards Jr., Ehire Adrianza and Pablo Sandoval were all signed to Minor League Deals with Spring Training invites.

Lineup

1.       Ronald Acuna Jr. CF

2.       Dansby Swanson SS

3.       Freddie Freeman 1B

4.       Marcell Ozuna LF

5.       Travis d’Arnaud C

6.       Ozzie Albies 2B

7.       Austin Riley 3B

8.       Ender Inciarte RF

Austin Riley

The Braves are a team that reminds me a lot of those 90’s Braves teams with a ridiculously talented rotation but also an everyday lineup with serious threats all over.  It starts with Ronald Acuna Jr, who doesn’t get enough credit for his high walk rate and excellent patience at the plate.  He just waits for his pitch and then crushes it – he hit 14 bombs last season and also has great speed and amazingly just turned 23 years old.  He could be on the verge of an insane season in 2021.  Dansby Swanson is another great all-around talent who showed improvement in his power, batting average and ability lay off low and away breaking pitches that used to destroy him constantly.  Watching him chase pitches out of the strike zone reminded me of a young Matt Williams who used to have trouble laying off anything but once he fixed that issue, he became an absolute beast.

Freeman is simply one the best in the game and the reigning MVP.  He’s over 30 but doesn’t look to be slowing down at all and should continue to rake like this few more years, giving Atlanta a nice window to win a World Series while he’s at his best.  Ozuna’s return is absolutely huge and the Braves have to realize his importance to another run at a title by resigning him despite the uncertainty of the DH in the National League.  After that, it’s Travis d’Arnaud, who had an amazing year both offensively and behind the dish.  He might not be able to repeat his offensive performance – his 2020 batting average was 68 points higher than his career average – but even so he’s going to hit the ball hard (he had a 93.4 exit velocity which was sixth in all of baseball) and continue to be a great defensive catcher who knows how to call a game and handle this staff. 

At second base, Ozzie Albies hit .271 last year with 6 home runs in 118 at bats, showing power improvement.  He’s got 25 home run power and great speed.  He could benefit from being a little more selective at the plate as he only walked 5 times last season but other than that, we’re talking about a former All Star and Silver Slugger who just turned 24 last month.   Super-streaky Austin Riley is at third base and his struggles have been well documented – striking out too much, chasing bad pitches and being inconsistent.  His defensive abilities are also in question.  All that said, he has insane power and can absolutely demolish a bad pitch.  He’s still very young and, for now, is the Braves best option at third base.  Ender Inciarte has a great glove but hit only .190 last season and could end up as a 4th outfielder if Christian Pache earns the starting job.  The Braves could even still be in the market for another outfielder despite re-signing Ozuna.  

I imagine the Braves are not done yet and will make a few more signings or trades before the start of Spring Training.  As of now, because of how impressive the first 2/3rd of that lineup is, I’m going to give it an A-.  

Rotation

1.       Max Fried

2.       Mike Soroka

3.       Ian Anderson

4.       Charlie Morton

5.       Drew Smyly

6.       Kyle Wright

7.       Bryse Wilson

Mike Soroka

Despite a somewhat disastrous 2020 in terms of keeping starters healthy, this rotation looks amazing.  Max fried had a 3.3% barrel rate last year; it’s almost impossible to make hard contact off his mix of three plus-pitches.  In addition to his perfect 7-0 record and 2.25 ERA, he won a Gold Glove. Soroka may not be ready for Opening Day after his achilles injury, but the 23 year old first round pick is absolutely electric and when he does come back he’ll be huge for that rotation. 

Ian Anderson is a strikeout machine with a killer fastball/change combo.  Batters hit .104 against his change-up last season.  Charlie Morton is some one I’m a little concerned about because he’s 37 and had some shoulder issues last season.  In his last full season back in 2019 he went 16-6 and ended up 3rd in the Cy Young voting.  Regardless, he should be a solid veteran presence in that rotation and if he can stay healthy he’ll certainly be someone you want in there.  At the back of the rotation will be Drew Smyly and/or Kyle Wright. 

Drew Smyly impressed for the Giants last season striking out 42 guys in 26.1 innings of work.  He showed better velocity and spin rate and earned a nice $12 million contract from the Braves.   I don’t know what to expect from Smyly in 2021 but obviously the Braves were impressed.  Wright was a first round pick in 2017 and went 11-4 in Triple in 2019 with a 4.17 ERA and 9.3 strikeout rate.  He hasn’t shown that type of stuff in the big leagues yet, but should get at least one more opportunity in 2021 to show what he can do.  Bryse Wilson is another guy who may get an opportunity, especially after he held the potent Dodgers lineup to just one run in 6 innings in Game 4 of the NLCS last season.
The starters that the Braves have at their disposal seems to be deep and effective enough to ensure a quality 5-man rotation one way or another.  With names like Fried, Soroka, Anderson and Morton, this should honestly be one of the better rotations in baseball.   I’m going to give it an A.

Bullpen

• Luke Jackson

• A.J. Minter

• Tyler Matzek

• Grant Dayton

• Huascar Ynoa

• Will Smith

• Chris Martin

• Bryse Wilson

• Jacob Webb

• Sean Newcomb

• Josh Tomlin

The bullpen for the Braves is currently missing a few key arms they had last year like free agents Mark Melancon and Shane Greene.  Still, there is Chris Martin who showed dominance last season with his sinker/slider combo.  The issue there is he is 35 years old and injury prone.  Will Smith was obviously awesome as a closer for the Giants but seems to have lost an edge on that slider and gives up too many bombs.  A.J. Minter may be huge for the Braves next year after showing some nasty stuff last year with a great cutter and high spin fastball that helped him 21 2/3rd innings allowing just 2 earned runs.  He has closer material.  Grant Dayton is awesome against lefties which is nice but the 3-batter minimum rule makes him a little less valuable.  Tyler Matzek is another lefty who really shined last year after struggling for years with injuries.  All in all, the Braves bullpen is okay but could certainly use a few more reliable bullpen arms.  The Braves need to either prioritize re-signing Melancon, Greene or even Darren O’Day or sign some another reliable reliever in free agency.  The problem is most of the best relievers have already signed.  All that said, you never know who will step it up and young arms like Jacob Webb and Jeremy Walker could be huge if they return to their 2019 form.  All that said, I’m going to give the Atlanta Braves bullpen a B-.

Conclusion

The Braves are a team with a fantastic lineup, helped enormously by bringing back Marzell Ozuna, and a solid and deep rotation.  The bullpen is a bit of a concern but if Will Smith and Chris Martin pitch well, my worries might be for nothing.   As a complete unit, I believe this is certainly a team that will compete for another National East Championship.  However, the Phillies, Mets and Nats (and, apparently, the Marlins too) are not going anywhere anytime soon.  As a full team, I give the Braves a B+.   

2021 Los Angeles Dodgers Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have made an enormous splash again and this time have snagged the 2020 Cy Young Award winner and best free agent pitcher available, Trevor Bauer.  Just like last season, the Dodgers added one of the best players in the game in Mookie Betts to an already stacked team and now their rotation is going to be absolutely next-level.  There are few if any holes on this team and the only thing fans of other teams, especially those in the National West, can hope for is a serious World Series Hangover Season.

Getting into the details of the deal, Bauer and the Dodgers have agreed on a three-year, $102 million deal that has opt-outs after Years 1 and 2.  Bauer is set to make a ridiculous $40 million in 2021 and $45 million in 2022, sources said.  He is projected to make more money next season than the entire 26-man rosters of the Orioles, Pirates and Indians. 

With this move, the Reds will get an extra draft pick from the Dodgers but the Dodgers don’t care – they wanted the best and they got the best – again.  We will get into the monster of a rotation the Dodgers have shortly but let’s take a look at Bauer’s career numbers and talk about this contract a little bit.  Bauer became a strikeout machine around 2017, averaging at least 10 strikeouts per nine every season since.   2018 was his best season until last year when he 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and made his first All Star Team.  Then in 2019, he between the Indians and Reds, he had a 4.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP and an 11-13 record, not numbers you would expect from a guy getting $102 over 3 years.  However, he earned that money in 2020 when he won the Cy Young, threw 2 shutouts, had a 1.73 ERA and somehow struck out 100 batters in only 73 innings. 

While he may be getting “overpaid,” the truth of the matter is pretty much every superstar who enters free agency gets paid what he has to get paid to land the player.  I certainly would not have wanted to pay that much for a guy who could easily revert back to his 2019 performance where he was serviceable but not Cy Young material.  However ,the Dodgers have never been shy about doing whatever it takes to get who they want and making sure they are in a position to go all the way.  They will be looking to repeat in 2021 and I’m not sure anyone can stop them.

Additions

• Trevor Bauer P

• Brandon Morrow P (Minor League Deal)

• Blake Treinen P

Other than Bauer, the Dodgers have also brought back excellent reliever Blake Treinen and have penned Brandon Morrow to a minor league contract and that’s a nice low-risk high-reward signing because last time we saw Morrow, he was excellent for the Cubs and the Dodgers before that keeping an ERA under 2 before getting sidelined due to injuries.  If he is even a shadow of his former self, he could add some nice pitching depth for the Dodgers. 

Lineup

1.       Mookie Betts CF

2.       Corey Seager SS

3.       Max Muncy 1B

4.       Will Smith C

5.       Cody Bellinger LF

6.       A.J. Pollock RF

7.       Edwin Rios 3B

8.       Chris Taylor/Gavin Lux 2B

Looking at the lineup, it’s still pretty freaking scary although Justin Taylor is likely gone in free agency and Joc Pederson is heading to Chicago.  Still, Mookie Betts starts things off and proved to be worth every penny last season when he hit 16 home runs in the shortened season and made too many amazing catches to count, helping the Dodgers win a World Series ring.  Corey Seager was only the World Series MVP and also had a fantastic season, hitting .307 with 15 home runs.  Max Muncy is always a threat to go deep, makes hard contact frequently although some of his totals are hurt by the shift.  Next at catcher is Will Smith, a super exciting young catcher with power and on-base ability.  He wont the Will Smith vs Will Smith match-up hands down. 

Gavin Lux

Cody Bellinger is a beast of course who only won the National League MVP in 2019.  Then finally things lighten up a little bit with A.J. Pollock, who is a former All Star who can barrel up just about any fastball but isn’t the best defender or baserunner.  Edwin Rios is awesome and deserving of an every day opportunity.  He has amazing left handed power and a great barrel rate.  Finally, Chris Taylor could be the second baseman and but if Gavin Lux impresses in Spring Training, I wouldn’t be surprised to him in there either.  Either way, this is a seriously legit lineup just like last season.  It gets an A.

Rotation

1.       Clayton Kershaw

2.       Walker Buehler

3.       Trevor Bauer

4.       Julio Urias

5.       David Price

6.       Dustin May

This rotation is straight up not fair.  Clayton Kershaw is a future Hall of Famer who showed last season that he’s not slowing down much.  He even showed some improvement in his velocity.  Buehler is a superstar who produces soft contact, and crappy fly balls.  Of course, his 97 MPH high-spin fastball produces a few swing and misses too.  Trevor Bauer is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and could be third in the rotation.  I think that’s all you have to say about that.  But just to be complete, Julio Urias is a weapon who figured out that curveball and was huge in the playoffs, striking out 13 hitters in 7 World Series innings last season.  Daiv dPrice should be back and may even be better after resting his wrist for another year after surgery.  He is a big name and the fact that he’s the 5th man in a rotation is telling.  Dustin May, who can bring 100 MPH heat, may not even be in the rotation.  This rotation is simply ridiculous and gets an A+.

Bullpen

• Kenley Jansen

• Blake Treinen

• Dustin May

• Brusdar Graterol

• Tony Gonsolin

• Dylan Floro

• Adam Kolarek

• Victor Gonzalez

• Joe Kelly

• Caleb Ferguson

• Mitch White

• Tommy Kahnle

• Corey Knebel

• Garrett Cleavinger

As far as the bullpen, which should be well rested almost every night looking at that rotation, there are plenty of weapons here as well.  Kenley Jansen may not be one of the elite closers in the game anymore, but he is still effective.  He has blown 14 saves in the past 3 seasons, however and his velocity has gradually dropped.  There is still Brusdar Graterol, whose triple-digit heaters and nasty sliders make him a scary sight out of the pen.  Blake Treinen will be back and he also has a great slider producing garbage contact.  That was a huge signing for L.A.  As mentioned earlier, some guys who can start may end up in the bullpen just because of the overstock of talent in the rotation.  This includes guys like Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May.  Adam Kolarek and Joe Kelly are other big names out of the bullpen.  Amazingly, this may be the weakest area of the team and it’s still legit.  I’m going to give the Dodgers bullpen an A.

So, that pretty much covers the scariest team in baseball.  I said they looked like an All Star Team last year and I stand by that this year.  There are multiple MVP’s and multiple Cy Young Award winners.  It doesn’t even seem fair. The Dodgers as a team get an A.

2021 Minnesota Twins Team Preview (30 Clubs in 30 Days)

It’s time to jump over to the American League for the fourth team in the Humm Baby Baseball 30 Clubs in 30 Days series.  Today, we’ll take a look a the Minnesota Twins, who just made a major signing by bringing on board Alex Colomé.  As I am writing this, the deal is not 100% official but sources say Colomé will be heading to Minnesota on a one year, five million dollar deal with a mutual option for 2022.  This signing is huge for the Twins and comes just shortly after re-signing Nelson Cruz on a one-year deal worth $13 million.  We’ll definitely talk more about Nelson Cruz when I get to the lineup but as for Colomé, he was one of the best relievers in the game in 2020 for the White Sox, who somehow snagged one of the few closers I’d rather have in Liam Hendricks this offseason.  That opened the door for the Twins to come in and snag Colomé, who gave up just 2 runs last season in over 22 innings of work, compiling 12 saves.  In 2019, his last full season, he had 30 saves with an ERA of 2.80. 

Additions

Alex Colomé

Hansel Robles

Shaun Anderson

Andrelton Simmons

J.A. Happ

Derek Law (Minor League Deal)

JT Riddle (Minor League Deal)

Derek Law

But Alex Colomé is not the only one joining a bullpen that already has some great arms like Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey.  The Twins also signed Hansel Robles, who struggled through 16 2/3rd innings in 2020, giving up 19 runs.  However, Robles was more than solid throughout 2018 and 2019 for the Angels and has a career 9.7 strikeouts per nine.  Signing a couple arms for that bullpen was absolutely necessary after losing several free agents including Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Matt Wisler, who has signed with the Giants. 

Speaking of the Giants, the Twins also picked up another pretty good looking arm in Shaun Anderson and this affects me personally, because I had high hopes for Anderson.  He was some one who was originally a starter and then ended up as a nice bullpen option, but never really put it all together at the big league level.  In 46 appearances with the Giants, he had a 5.17 ERA with 88 strikeouts and 50 walks in 111.1 innings.  That included 16 starts.  He’s a guy who attacks hitters with a mid-90’s fastball and a upper 80’s slider that is supposed to be his out pitch.  He’s also got a good change up and a curve to keep hitters guessing.

In exchange for the Anderson, the Giants will get Lamonte Wade Jr, a left handed hitter who can work a walk but otherwise hasn’t shown a ton of promise with his .211 career average and 2 home runs in 95 at bats, but I’ll trust Farhan Zaidi on this one because there’s no way I would have made that deal.  In other words, I like Shaun Anderson despite the high ERA, I think he’s got a lot of potential to be a reliable arm out of the pen or even towards the back-end of a rotation.

And speaking of the back end of a rotation, the Twins also signed J.A. Happ to a contract and he is going to be a strong candidate for that rotation immediately. This adds much needed depth and options for the rotation as we approach Spring Training.  The final main free agent signing is of course Andrelton Simmons, the slick fielding infielder who had a .346 on base percentage in 2020 and was in my top 25 free agents video going into the offseason.  I did not have him going to the Twins though.  Simmons should be a better option than Jorge Polanco, who regressed big time last season, likely due at least in part to ankle issues.  Also, on Minor League Deals, former Giant Derek Law has signed along with J.T. Riddle, both guys with big league experience who are worth a mention.  There were stretches were Derek Law looked like he was going to be a legit big-league arms out of the bullpen, but he never fully materialized like we hoped here in San Francisco.

Lineup

1.       Max Kepler RF

2.       Luis Arraez 2B

3.       Josh Donaldson 3B

4.       Nelson Cruz DH

5.       Miguel Sano 1B

6.       Bryon Buxton CF

7.       Alex Kirilloff LF

8.       Ryan Jeffers C

9.       Andrelton Simmons SS

Andrelton Simmons

Moving into the Staring Lineup, things get started with Max Kepler, a two-way player who crushed 36 home runs in 2019.  He can obviously elevate the ball with power but his batting average isn’t going to the best.  However, he can work a walk and has a career .319 on base percentage, which isn’t great but it’s not bad considering his career batting average of .237.  Part of that is the modern day shift that takes a lot of singles away from him. 

Luis Arraez has amazing bat to ball skills and in 438 career at bats he has 145 hits and has only struck out 40 times.  If he played in first half the century, this is the type of guy who would hit .400 multiple times throughout his career.  He is perfect for a lineup that has a lot sluggers who struggle to get on base when they’re not going yard. 

Josh Donaldson is honestly some one I worry about, because before his monster 2019 in Atlanta, he had 3 straight seasons where he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness before he just tore it up on a one year deal with the Braves, earning a nice long term contract with Minnesota.  Donaldson is obviously a threat up there and if healthy, he’s always a nice bat to have in the lineup but I don’t know how much you count on that.  He missed the 2020 playoffs due to a calf injury and he just turned 35.  Let’s say just this, if he makes it through the 2021 season without going on the injured list, assuming there’s a full season, I’ll give away a Josh Donaldson jersey right here to the first person who asks for it after the last day of the season.  All that said, he is Josh Donaldson and he does have the potential to hit 35+ home runs if he can stay healthy. 

Nelson Cruz is back and he might be 40 years old, but from 2014-2019, he averaged 148 games per season which is pretty damn consistent.  In 2020, he missed just seven games.  In other words, he doesn’t seem to be overly injury-prone so I believe he’s going to be healthy for the majority of 2021 and continue to crush the ball like he usually does.  After hitting 41 bombs in 2019, he hit 16 last season 2020 in just 185 at bats with an average over .300.  Obviously, he’ll probably decline at some point and it could happen his year at 41 years old, but I am predicting only a slight decline – he is still going hit at least 30 home runs and it is a huge re-signing for the Twins.

Miguel Sano was second in all of Major League Baseball with a 95.2 average exit velocity although he has some issues with breaking balls.  He strikes out too much and his batting average was .204 in 2020, but as I said, when he does make contact, he crushes the ball.  His defense is not great, however, and you get what you get with Sano – strikeouts, home runs and few errors.  Again, this type of hitter is why some one like Arraez is so important to have in that lineup.  Next we have Byron Buxton, who seems to be coming to his own lately and has been making hard contact a lot more often during the last couple of seasons.  He smashed 13 home runs in just 130 at bats in 2020 and offers elite range in centerfield.  He might never live up to the insane hype he was surrounded with earlier in his career but he is definitely a positive in that lineup and helps the Twins win games.

Alex Kirilloff is a pure hitter with great bat speed.  He can hit to the entire field and could be in the Rookie of the Year running in 2021.  In his Minor League Career, he hit .317 with a .365 on base percentage.  He doesn’t have enough big league experience to really predict what we’ll see from him, but I am optimistic that he’ll be solid based on the scouting reports and videos I’ve checked out.  Still, you never really know until you see it.  In the squat will likely be Ryan Jeffers, who proved to be an upgrade over Mitch Garver last year and will get a chance to win the job in ’21.  Garver is still there as well, but I think Jeffers, a power hitter who can handle the pitching staff well, has the job unless some one takes it from him by force.  Andrelton Simmons wraps it up and like I said, he is a guy who gets on base and offers elite defense, making him an upgrade over Polanco. 

Frankly, this lineup is pretty scary and has a little of everything from the home run or nothing type to a guy who is super tough to strike out like Arraez.  You got powerful veterans like Donaldson and Cruz and exciting youngsters like Kirilloff and Jeffers.  I love this lineup and the only things I really worry about are Donaldson’s health and Sano’s struggles with striking out and generally being an all-or-nothing type, which hurts but again, there are so many guys around him who can get on base and bring more consistency that I think Sano will be okay in there.  After all, when he does get a hold of one, there’s a good chance there will be a guy or two or three on base.  All that being said, I’m going to this lineup an A-.

Rotation

1.       Kenta Maeda

2.       Jose Berrios

3.       Michael Pineda

4.       J.A. Happ

5.       Randy Dobnak

6.       Devin Smeltzer

Randy Dobnak

The rotation starts out with a bang with Kenta Maeda, who proved that he is one of the best starters in the game and got a bit lost with all the talent over in Los Angeles.  He’s got three pitches that he can locate well in any count and had a 10.8 strikeout per 9 ratio in 2020.  I believe he was best pitcher in the American League with the exception of Shane Beiber.  Jose Berrios would be the ace for most teams and also strikes out more than a hitter per inning.  His curveball is deadly and he also has a plus changeup keeping hitters off balance.  After that, Michael Pineda is a guy who stays ahead in the count, hits his spots and if he can stay on the field, will be a major contributor.

 At #4 will likely be J.A. Happ, who is very consistent and usually has an ERA around 4, which is about what it was in 2020 – 3.98.  His performance was in line with his career numbers – he misses bats with his slider, keeps contact soft often and is simply solid even though he’s not going to win a Cy Young or blow people away, he’ll keep this team in a lot of games and the offense will do the rest.  Randy Dobnak also has a nice slider and showed a lot of promise in 2020.  And the final candidate for the rotation is junkballing lefthander Devin Smeltzer, who can definitely start in a pinch or even earn a spot in the rotation if pitches well in Spring Training.

This rotation is very solid assuming it stays healthy.  Shaun Anderson is some one who also has starting experience and if things get desperate or if he  simply earns the job, he could also be a candidate.  However, just looking at the main five – Maedia, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak – I think it is an excellent rotation.  There are two guys would be aces on most teams, a guy in Pineda who is primed for a big season after fully healing from Tommy John, J.A. Happ who has been consistently solid forever and then Dobnak, who impressed mightily last year.  I am also going to give this rotation an A-.

Bullpen

Taylor Rogers

Alex Colome

Tyler Duffey

Jorge Alcala

Caleb Thielbar

Cody Stashak

Hansel Robles

Edwar Colina

Shaun Anderson

Caleb Thielbar

Like the rotation that has 2 guys who would be aces on most teams, the bullpen has two guys who would be closers on most teams.  In addition to newcomer Colome, there’s Taylor Rogers, who had 30 saves in 2019 and struck out 10.8 guys per 9 innings in 2020.  He did give up more hits than usual and his fastball isn’t as good as it once was, but he is still a beast out of that pen.  Tyler Duffey uses his sick curveball to dominate batters to the tune of a 1.88 ERA in 2020 and then you’ve got the best power arm in the pen, Jorge Alcala, whose fastball/slider comob is straight up nasty.  Caleb Thielbar was also amazing in 2020, using a 3-pitch mix to dominate lefties.  Now with the additions of Anderson and Robles, this bullpen is clearly very good.  How good remains to be seen, but I love the moves the Twins are making to replace some of the guys they lost after 2020.  I’m going to give this bullpen an A as well.

So, there you have it. When examing the Minnesota Twins roster, it’s no surprise why they continue to be a playoff team year after year.  Their only issue is figuring out how to win in October, but sooner or later it’s going to happen.  You have to give credit to their front office and Derek Falvey for overhauling this team and not being afraid to spend money to make them competitive.  Overall, I have to give the Minnesota Twins an A.