Today we are going to jump back into the National League Central and talk about one of the most successful teams during the 2020 regular season and that is the Chicago Cubs. This is a team that went 108 years without a title and finally broke the Curse of the Billy Goat in 2016 with an amazing World Series Championship, a great moment to witness – unless you’re a Cardinals fan or something – and now 5 years later, the Cubs still pretty good and won the division in 2020 but the question is – is this team getting better for 2021 or worse?
Departures
OF Albert Almora Jr. (FA – Mets)
C Victor Caritini (Trade - Padres)
SP Tyler Chatwood (FA – Blue Jays)
SP Yu Darvish (Trade - Padres)
INF Daniel Descalso (FA)
RP Jeremy Jeffress (FA)
2B Jason Kipnis (FA)
SP Jon Lester (FA - Nationals)
SP Jose Quintana (FA - Angels)
1B Jose Martinez (FA - Mets)
OF Kyle Schwarber (FA - Nationals)
OF Billy Hamilton (FA)
Some of the moves by Jed Hoyer and the front office have caused some concern to put it mildly for Cubs fans out there. In fact, the ones I know are mostly pissed. Now, for most of these previews I don’t talk about the departures because there’s always a few free agents gone or few guys that get claimed or traded but more important is the arrivals. However, for the Cubs, we have to look at some of these departures which include Yu Darvish, one of the better pitchers in the game, who was sent to San Diego for some decent but extremely young prospects and Zach Davies. This move did not seem like a sensible move for a team that just won their division and should be trying to compete again in ’21 instead of building for the future. They also failed to re-sign free agents such as Kyle Schwarber, who’s heading to DC along with Jon Lester, Jose Martinez, who signed a Minor Deal with the Mets, and Tyler Chatwood, who is heading to Toronto. Oh, and Jose Quintana is also an Angel now, meaning their 2020 Rotation is almost entirely gone. One of their better relievers, Jeff Jeffress is a free agent as well.
Arrivals
SP Zach Davies
SP Trevor Williams
SP Kohl Stewart
C Austin Romine
OF Philip Ervin
RP Jonathan Holder
3B Matt Duffy
RP Andrew Chafin (Re-Signed)
OF Jake Marisnik (Per Sources)
Of Joc Pederson
IF Sergio Alcantara (Waivers – Tigers)
RP Robert Stock
RP Matt Dermody
RP Trevor Kelley
RP James Borque
Matt Duffy
To replace all that was lost, the Cubs, as mentioned did get Zach Davis in the Darvish trade but despite a nice 2020, Davies is no Darvish and I think this is definitely a downgrade. I do like Davies and he has a great changeup and may even have All Star talent at times but Darvish has Cy Young talent. Still, I get the move in a way – you’re getting a good pitcher for your rotation to replace Darvish and a few prospects as well for the future. But for a fanbase that just watched their team win their division, it doesn’t look good at all. To help replace some of the other lost starters, the Cubs also signed Trevor Williams, who was one of the better-looking starters in the division in 2018 when he went 14-10 with a 3.11 ERA and a shutout. Then, he slowly fell apart, culminating with a 2-8 record last season and a 6.18 ERA while giving up a league high 15 home runs. I think this Cardinals fan tweet sums up the fear this move strikes in other NL Central Teams.
Oh God!! What will we do!?!?!
— Stephen Guats (@Guats85) January 30, 2021
Kohl Stewart was also signed and he was the 4th overall pick in 2013 but has not put it together at the big-league level. However, the deal is for $700,000 and it’s a major league contract so he will be there to provide either staring depth or long relief or best case scenario, he actually has a break out year for the Cubbies. Other than that, the impact players the Cubs have picked up include of course Joc Pederson, who I’ll talk about when I get to the lineup, but more recently they have reportedly penned another outfielder, Jake Marisnick to a deal for at least 1.5 million but there is a $4 million option and even more that he can earn in incentives. He is a glove first guy who will provide excellent defense and speed assuming his hamstring injuries from last year are taken care of. He should be a nice addition to that outfield that already has Joc Pederson and Jason Heyward along with Phil Ervin, who was also signed in Free Agency.
Former Giant Matt Duffy got a Minor League Deal and he’s still trying to get back to his 2015 self when he was second in the Rookie of the Year voting. They also grabbed Sergio Alcantara off waivers from Detroit, he’s a great defensive shortstop but doesn’t offer much hard contact or power at the plate. And finally, the Cubs have been shopping for bullpen depth with Jonathan Holder and guys like Robert Stock and a few others – they’ll all compete in Spring Training for bullpen roles. The Cubs also singed Shelby Miller who could start or come out of the pen. Their bullpen lacks long-term big league experience but there is some talent and a ton of options so the Cubs should be able to build at least a decent pen and we’ll get to that shortly.
Lineup
1. Ian Happ CF
2. Anthony Rizzo 1B
3. Kris Bryant 3B
4. Willson Contreras C
5. Javier Baez SS
6. Joc Pederson LF
7. Nico Hoerner/David Bote 2B
8. Jason Heyward RF
Willson Contreras
The Cubs lineup is still very good and could be even better in 2021 after some down seasons. Of course, that could change quickly if they trade Bryant or other key bats here. For now, assuming this is what we get, it’s not bad at all. Switch hitter Ian Happ had a nice season and could be primed to hit close to if not 30 home runs in 2021. He’s got great bat speed and his .879 OPS over the past two seasons is the best on the entire Cubs team. Anthony Rizzo is a patient and excellent hitter who is usually consistent but had a down year in 2020. Regardless, he always has elite defense and will more than likely bounce back with the bat in ’21.
Kris Bryant is an interesting case – he is obviously a superstar and former MVP but for had a terrible 2020 hitting just .206 with 4 home runs. He struck out in 27% of his at bats but was dealing with nagging injuries and will probably be much better in 2021, but I don’t know if we’ll see his 2016 MVP season again or not. There has been speculation that he hasn’t been the same since he got hit in the head in 2018. I hope he can get healthy and fully productive again for the Cubs, but time will tell. Willson Contreras is above average with power at the plate and has gotten better behind the plate at framing pitches and overall defense. He hit 24 bombs in 2019 and should be able to match that in ’21. Javy Baez is a five-tool guy who also had a terrible 2020 offensively but with a full Spring Training and a more focused approach trying not to get too pull-happy, I think he’ll be back to his regular self in 2019. No matter what, he’ll bring elite and flash defense and is one of the most exciting players in the game.
Joc Pederson is the biggest free agent name added so far this offseason and I think he will thrive in Chicago, not worrying about being a platoon guy or 4th outfielder. He will be an everyday player and that’s what he deserves after hitting 36 home runs in 2019 while working 50 walks and playing good defense in the outfield. This is a big signing for the Cubs, who needed some extra power in that lineup. Nico Hoerner is a 2018 first round pick who showed some power in his rookie year with a .282 average but hit none in 2020 with a .222 average. He’ll get a chance to be a regular in 2021 but if not it will be David Bote, who has impressive advanced metrics although his standard numbers don’t look that great. He can get on base and has shown more power than Hoerner so far and is good defensively.
Finally, Jason Heyward finishes off the lineup and he actually had a great 2020, with a career best walk rate and lowest career chase rate. His .392 on base percentage was his highest since his rookie year. This lineup, like so many, is hard to judge because while it looks great with guys like Baez, Bryant and Rizzo in there, if we’re to believe their 2020 performances, it’s not so great. I don’t really believe 2020 for the most part. I think Baez is going to be awesome again and Rizzo will be much better. Bryant will be better too although I’m worried that he may not be able to get back to the superstar talent he was during his first couple of seasons. Still, with Happ at the top, Rizzo-Bryant-Contreras-Baez in the middle and when you get through all that, you have to deal with Joc Pederson’s power, I have to love this lineup. Since I think most of these guys will rebound from rough 2020’s, I’m going to give this lineup a B+.
Rotation
1. Kyle Hendricks
2. Zach Davies
3. Alec Mills
4. Trevor Williams
5. Adbert Alzolay
Tyson Miller
Shelby Miller
Kohl Stewart
Now, to examine the rotation and see if it’s still any good after losing so many great starters. The top starts with Kyle Hendricks, who may not have 100 mile per hour heat but he does have a sick changeup that allows him to make that high 80’s fastball look a lot faster. He can also mix in a great sinker but his main asset is his unbelievable command. He’s a Greg Maddux type who hits his spots and carves up batters. After that is Zach Davies, the newcomer from San Diego, who like I said is good and has a great changeup. He has been up and down over his career though and from start to start you never know if he’ll be great or terrible. After that is Alec Mills, who no-hit the Brewers last year and also relies on a heavy sinker. His career strikeout ratio is impressive for a guy who doesn’t throw super hard and he usually keeps contact soft. However, like Davies, he’s susceptible to a rough start more often than you would like and based on a .233 batting average on balls in play, he could be in line for some regression.
The Cubs tried to get more experience with Trevor Williams, whose experience at Wrigley Field amounts to a 2-6 record with a 7.09 ERA while allowing 8 home runs and 18 walks in 33 innings. Like I said, he was awesome in 2018 but he has been terrible since then and anything I try to say positive about this signing is just putting lipstick on a pig. He could be better with a new environment and new pitching coaches but until I see an improvement, I’m not counting on Williams to bring much to Chicago. One guy they do have who has a live arm and strikeout stuff is Adbert Alzolay, who has 42 strikeouts in 33 big league innings. He just needs to work on his control and could be a legit pitcher in that rotation. Tyson Miller and Shelby Miller will also compete for rotation spots. Tyson is a prospect with a decent minor league career but nothing that blows you away while Shelby is a veteran who really hasn’t been that great since 2013.
The bottom line is, and I hate to say it, I think rotation wasn’t good enough to part with Darvish and expect to compete in 2021, especially after losing Quintana, Lester and Chatwood to Free Agency. Kyle Hendricks is awesome, Zach Davies and Alec Mills are good but after that, it’s a bunch of question marks – veterans who have been terrible and youngsters who are unproven. Best case scenario, it could be a decent rotation but as for an honest prediction, I think it might be a rough season for the rotation in Chicago. I’m going to give this rotation a C-.
Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel
Rowan Wick
Brad Wieck
Dan Winkler
Kyle Ryan
Duane Underwood Jr.
James Norwood
Jason Adam
Robert Stock
Dillon Maples
Andrew Chafin
Justin Steele
Jonathan Holder
Kohl Stewart
Matt Dermody
Trevor Kelley
James Borque
Gary Fenter
Craig Kimbrel
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the bullpen, which might need to be very deep to help take care of some of those starters I just talked about. The closer role might still be Craig Kimbrell’s for now, but he’ll have to verify that in Spring Training this year. Kimbrel was once one of the league’s dominant closers but he’s been more or less a disaster since joining the Cubs, although his strikeout numbers are still there. Overall, his fastball velocity has dropped and his command has been off but he did settle down last season after getting lit up in his first four appearances. For the remaining 14 appearances, he had a 1.42 ERA and an insane strikeout rate. If that version of Kimbrel shows up in 2021, the Dr. Jekkyl version, the Cubs will have a legit closer, but if the Mr. Hyde version shows up, they’re going to have to find a new closer.
Rowan Wick and Jason Adam are also very solid and should both be able to handle high leverage situations. Wick has a curveball with a ton of bite and it’s tough to touch. Dan Winkler was great last season with a 2.95 ERA and was solid with the Braves before that. Jonathan Holder should be okay for the Cubs – he has 157 big league appearances under his belt with a 4.38 career ERA. Like I said, besides Holder, Andrew Chafin and Kimbrell, this bullpen is very young and lacks serious big-league experience. That might not bode well as a bullpen trying to support the rotation I just talked about. I would definitely be concerned if I was Cubs fan about the pitching. Grading this rotation is tough because so much rides on how Craig Kimbrel will perform but assuming he at least resembles the dominant pitcher he used to be and what we saw for the later part of 2020, I’d say it’s a decent bullpen but it could use more experienced depth and more guys who have gotten it done at the MLB level. I’m going to give this bullpen a C.
So there you have it and the Chicago Cubs are a team that I’m simply not overly impressed with going into 2021. That being said, they’ve improved their farm system and they have some serious talent on the way like outfielder Brennen Davis and lefty starter Brailyn Marquez, but as for the team that will be on that Opening Day roster, I’m seriously concerned, especially about the pitching and that’s kind of weird, because the offense struggled in 2020 and the pitching is what made up for that. But with the loss of so many great arms, I don’t think that’ll be case in 2021. I’m going to the Cubs as an overall team a C.