It’s time for the official 2021 Humm Baby Baseball Mock Draft. This year, I’ll be doing the entire first round, with all 30 teams getting a pick. While it will be fun to try to guess which teams will take who, the most important aspect of these Mock Drafts to me are really getting to know these players, becoming familiar with their names and understanding some of their strengths and weaknesses, which will make the actual Draft, which I’ll be covering as well live on my YouTube Channel, that much more enjoyable.
So, here is my official MLB Mock Draft for 2021, starting with the team with #1 overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA)
Multiple reports have been Pirates interest in a position player, most likely a shortstop and the hottest name as we approach the draft right now is Marcelo Mayer. He is the prototypical multi-tool high draft pick from the pre-analytical days with above average tools across the board, but also loved by the computers with his patience and knowledge of the strike zone. He also unleashed his power this season, hitting 14 home runs in just 97 at bats. He offers sparkling defense, a strong arm and elite bat to ball skills. At 6’3” and 195 lbs, Mayer has ridiculous upside and although this year there is no absolute obvious #1 overall pick like previous years, my money is on the Pirates taking Mayer with the first overall pick.
2. Texas Rangers: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Although the Rangers are heavily connected to local 5-tool talent Jordan Lawler, I’m going to say they take perhaps the best looking college position player in the draft, Henry Davis out of Louisville. Davis not only has a plus arm that eliminated 34% of would-be base stealers in his first two college seasons, he also has a huge bat, hitting .370 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI in just 50 games. He also worked 31 walks with just 24 strike outs, showing a very strong knowledge of the strike zone. He also has good speed for a catcher and could be converted to another position if a team wishes to maximize his offensive abilities. The Rangers are connected to several players, but I’m guessing they go with a college bat with a super high ceiling and the obvious choice is Henry Davis.
3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Next up is the Detroit Tigers, a team that has no pitchers in their top 10 MLB prospects right now. They seem to like SEC players, especially those out of Vandy, and I have them taking another - Jack Leiter, the consensus best pitcher in the 2021 MLB Draft. His fastball hits high 90s with movement and he mixes it up with plus breaking stuff. He does struggle with command at times and had a tough midseason stretch during which he gave up more runs than usual, but settled down towards the end of the season, largely dominating during his last four starts and finishing the season with a 2.13 ERA. He struck out 201 batters in just 125.1 college innings. I’ve got Jack Letier going to the Tigers and joining Casey Mize very soon in their rotation.
4. Boston Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (TX)
For the Red Sox, a lot of mock drafts have them taking either Leiter or Davis, but with both off the board on this mock draft, I have shortstop Jordan Lawlar falling into the laps of the Boston Red Sox. He is local to Dallas, Texas and so there is also a lot of speculation that he could go to the Rangers. Lawlar is a five-tool talent with a very solid and compact swing. He can take the ball the other way with ease and can work the gaps. He’s also got great hands at shortstop with a powerful arm. Lawlar is just a very solid pick who could easily become an All-Star caliber big leaguer with at least 20+ home run power with elite on-base skills. He’s similar to Mayer, except Mayer is a bit bigger and may be viewed as having a higher ceiling, especially in regard to home run power.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
For the Orioles, the talk has been that they plan to take a position player under slot so that they can go over slot with some of their later picks. Therefore, instead of taking one of the other big names like Khalil Watson or Kumar Rocker, I’ve got the O’s taking Colton Cowser out of Sam Houston State. This is an outfielder with a quick and powerful left-handed bat. He can hit the ball to all fields with authority but may have to work some on his launch angle to increase his home run production. However, he is 6’3” and has incredible bat speed so he certainly could develop into a serious power hitter. Defensively, he is above average but not spectacular. His instincts are solid, and he has massive upside. This would be a very solid pick for the Baltimore Orioles.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forrest High (NC)
I’ve got the D-Backs taking the last of the big three shortstops in the draft expected to go in the top 10, and that’s one of the most electric players in the draft, Kahlil Watson. He absolutely looks like a superstar in the making. At 5’9 and 178 lbs, Watson is quick, both with his legs on the basepaths and hands at the plate. He has a vicious swing that can result in some tape-measure shots but also maintains discipline and doesn’t chase too many pitches outside the zone. He hits left and throws right and, although he is listed as a shortstop, he could also be a fantastic outfielder or a versatile infielder. This season, he absolutely tore his High School league to shreds, going 20 for 39 with 6 home runs. That’s a .513 batting average if you don’t have a calculator. This kid is the real deal and I’ve got him going to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
I’ve got the Kanas City Royals taking what is probably the most popular name in the draft, although his stock has fallen a bit recently – and that’s Kumar Rocker. The Royals are expected to take a pitcher and although there are several solid options at #7, I am guessing they cannot resist taking the big name and a guy with one of the filthiest sliders in college baseball who can also touch 99 on the gun with movement. He threw a no-hitter against Duke with an incredible 19 strikeouts and led Division I baseball in wins and strikeouts this year. His command isn’t perfect but with a little seasoning in the minors, this guy has massive upside. At 6’5” and 245 lbs, I’ve got the Royals being unable to pass up on Kumar Rocker, who also has an awesome name.
8. Colorado Rockies: Brady House, SS/3B, Winder-Barrow (GA)
While I am curious if the Rockies might take a pitcher, I am guessing they’ll ultimately go with a position player perfect for Coors Field. That player at #8 will be Brady House, one of the biggest names in High School baseball going in the 2021 season. He is 6’3”, 210 lbs and has a sweet and powerful swing that resulted in 50 hits in just 91 at bats during his Senior Year including 8 bombs. He does go into occasional slumps when selling out for power, but reportedly is quick to make adjustments and get back on track quickly. His defense and speed are not as impressive as his bat but still decent. Ultimately, I believe he would punish pitching in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field and if he is still available at #8, I’ve got the Rockies swooping him.
9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK)
At #9, I’ve got the Los Angeles Angles definitely taking a pitcher in an effort to get some quality starting pitching to help out Mike Trout and company in Anaheim. There are several options, but I believe the best option left at #9 will be Jackson Jobe. This right-hander had some unreal stats even for High School – a .13 ERA and 122 strikeouts through 51.2 innings with a ridiculous 5 walks. His main recipe for success is a nearly unhittable slider with an insane spin rate along with heat in the mid-to-high 90’s. If Jackson Jobe is still on the board at #9, the Angels would be smart to snag him immediately and that’s what I’ve got happening.
10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, IF, UCLA
There are so many options for the Mets at #10, especially considering they may try to under slot like the Orioles. Ultimately, I think they’ll go with a position player – Matt McLain or Sal Frelick being two big options. I’ll go with McLain, who was picked 25th overall by the Diamondbacks in 2018, but he decided to attend UCLA instead. There, he got even better. McLain is a quick runner with the ability to play multiple positions. He developed some nice pop as well, hitting 9 home runs in 183 at bats in 2021 while hitting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. His bat-to-ball skills are still excellent, and McLain seems to be a very safe pick at #10 for the Mets although he may not be considered to have as much upside as some of the higher picks.
11. Washington Nationals: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Next up at #11, the Washington Nationals will be looking for pitching and I’ve got them snagging Texas Longhorn Ty Madden. Madden has continuously improved as far as stuff and command throughout his college career. He has a huge arsenal of pitches including a fastball that can touch 99, a devastating changeup and a mid-80’s slider. In 2020, he walked just 4 hitters in 25 innings while striking out 26. His 2021 season was not quite that impressive, but he still showed outstanding stuff to the tune of a 2.45 ERA and 10.8 Strikeout per Nine Ratio, very good numbers for the Big 12. If the Nationals take a college pitcher, there’s a good chance it will be Ty Madden.
12. Seattle Mariners: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University of Ohio
The Seattle Mariners seem to take a pitcher nearly every year, so I’ll stick with that and say they go for right handed pitcher Sam Bachman. Scouts love his fastball and slider and if they can get him at #12, it will be a huge get for Seattle in my opinion. His strikeout ratio blew up every year of his college career from 8.9 per nine his in 2019 to 11.8 per nine in 2020 and then a stunning 14 per nine in 2021, striking out 93 batters in 59.2 innings. This 6’1”, 235 lb righy has hit 101 on the gun and has a powerful slider with nasty bite. His changeup and control don’t grade as high but overall, this guy has huge upside and could end up being a quality starting arm for an MLB team, and I’m guessing that team is the Mariners.
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
I have the Philadelphia Phillies taking outfielder Sal Frelick, who is considered undersized at 5’9” but is an overall fantastic talent with great speed and knack for making contact. He walks more than he strikes out and has plus bat speed. He could develop decent power but more likely he will be a Brett Gardner type who steals bases, plays great defense, puts the bat on the ball and is just an overall big contributor a team’s success. With his bat to ball skills and blazing speed, he should be a favorite to move through the minors and contribute to his big-league club. If he is still available at #14, the Giants could make a move on him, but for my mock draft, I have him going to the Phillies at #13.
14. San Francisco Giants: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
The San Francisco Giants have the 14th overall pick this year and although I would love for them to get Sal Frelick, I am going to say the go with a pitcher and it’s left-hander Jordan Wicks out of Kansas State. There is also talk of outfielder Benny Montgomery, who may be the consensus best remaining player, but the Giants system could use a legit arm and Wicks is certainly that. He is a 6’3”, 220 lb lefty who has been practically unhittable. In 2020, he gave up 1 run in 4 starts. He has a release that makes the ball incredibly hard to pick up, especially when it’s moving in the mid-90’s with run and cut. He also has one of if not the best changeups in the entire draft. He pounds the zone and pitches with big confidence. If Wicks is available at 14, I’ll be surprised if the Giants pass up on him.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
I’ve heard a lot of talk about the Brewers and catcher Harry Ford, so I’m going to say they end up a match. He has amazing tools across the board including decent speed, not just for a catcher. He has a cannon for an arm and is a fantastic defensive catcher. He has the athletic ability to play other positions, but the Brewers are mainly interested in him for his bat. He has incredible bat speed and can absolutely crush the ball. His explosive swing worries some scouts who think he might end up being a home-run or nothing low batting-average type, but with his incredible athletic ability, it’s a risk a team will be willing to take in the first round and I’ve got him going to the Brew Crew.
16. Miami Marlins: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)
Last season, the Miami Marlins went very heavy on pitchers, so I am guessing this year they take the best available offensive player at #16. That could be Benny Montgomery, a 6’4” outfielder with tremendous speed, raw power and strong arm. He has been connected to the Giants as well. My main concern with Montgomery is an unorthodox swing and reported flat swing that doesn’t launch the ball very often. However, with a few years of development, he could turn out to be a solid big leaguer. I don’t know if he has the highest ceiling, but he could certainly end up being comparable to very good players like Jayson Werth or Richie Sexson – not Hall of Famers but excellent players who helped their teams win with big power and a fine knowledge of the strike zone.
17. Cincinnati Reds: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forrest
With the Reds having 3 of the first 35 picks, there is a chance that they under slot in the first round. They could once again target righty Ryan Cusick, whom they drafted with the 40th pick in the 2018 draft, but he decided to attend Wake Forrest. This is a 6’6” beast who can hit 102 on the radar gun. Some of his secondary stuff wasn’t rated as high but has improved throughout his college career and he now has an above average curveball as well. His raw stats don’t jump off the page at all – he had a 3-5 record with a 4.24 ERA this year – but he struck out 108 batters in 80 innings. The Reds may not draft Cusick this year but I believe they will try to save money at #17 and under slot, and this seems to be a solid pick for some one with serious heat and massive potential – and it’s some one the Reds have shown interest in in the past.
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee HS (GA)
For the Cardinals, I’m going to have them taking a right-handed High School pitcher named Bubba Chandler. His fastball went from high 80’s/low 90’s in 2020 to touching 97 this year. He’s got a sharp slider, impressive curveball and a changeup that is inconsistent but devastating when it’s working. He is a gifted athlete who also switch hits at the plate and plays a solid shortstop. The downside to drafting Chandler is that he is already committed to Clemson not only as a baseball player, but as a quarterback. However, he originally made a verbal commitment to Georgia then switched to Clemson, so no commitments are official. I expect him to get drafted in the first round and I’ll have the Cardinals taking a shot at Chandler at #18.
19. Toronto Blue Jays: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FL)
For the Toronto Blue Jays, I’ll say they go with a pitcher, and it will be Andrew Painter. Painter is a 6’6”, 230 lb. righty who has the control of a seasoned college arm. He has a fastball in the mid 90’s and can locate precisely enough to consistently get hitters to chase enticing fastballs at the top of the zone without missing location and giving up hard contact. He also has promising secondary stuff and is simply an all-around excellent pick for a prep arm at #19. There are no major weaknesses other than just needing some work on his mechanics as he progresses through the minor leagues. It is logical to think he may add a couple more miles an hour to his fastball and certainly has some huge upside. If Painter drops to #19, I’d be surprised if the Blue Jays don’t pounce on him.
20. New York Yankees: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
At #20, there are some impressive High School players on the board, but to maximize signing chances, I’ll have the Yankees going with perhaps the best available college hitter, Jud Fabian. He grades highest in the power category and has hit some tape measure shots at Florida. In 225 at bats this year, he struck out 79 times but crushed 20 bombs. He’s had some swing-and-miss issues plays a solid centerfield defensively. Although he doesn’t exactly fly, he does have above average speed, a plus arm, and at worst projects to be a solid fourth outfielder with good power off the bench. At best, he could learn to tap into that power and threaten to hit 30+ bombs although quite a few strikeouts will likely accompany that barring major improvement in that category as he develops.
21. Chicago Cubs: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southland (MA)
For the Chicago Cubs, I’ll say they try to add another Baez and it will be Joshua Baez, an outfielder with an absolute cannon for an arm. His power potential may be the highest of any prep hitter in the entire draft. His main criticisms have been trying to hit the ball 800 feet too often, missing pitches and striking out more than he should. However, this seems like a problem that can be fixed with experience and coaching. He’s also a solid fielder with decent speed and can even hit 97 MPH on the mound, leaving room for a possible conversion if he doesn’t work out as a hitter. Baez profiles very similar to Fabian, except Fabian has slightly better speed while Baez has a better arm and, of course, Fabian has the extra collegiate experience. However, I love the upside for Baez and feel he would be a great fit in the Cubs organization.
22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge (IN)
If Colson Montgomery drops to 22, I think the White Sox will snag him. This is a left-handed hitter who, at 6’4”, has plenty of potential to become a Corey Seager like star. He uses the entire field and has plenty of power potential with a strong arm. He could possibly convert to third base as well. His defense is about average but has reportedly improved this year. Most mocks have him going much higher than this, but as someone who considers basketball his main sport, I suspect he may not go as high as some think. The White Sox have been heavily connected to him, however, so I’ll have him going to the South Side.
23. Cleveland Indians: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY)
Next up is the Cleveland Indians, who I’ve got taking Joe Mack, a High School catcher. Mack, like everyone else in the draft it seems, is also committed to Clemson. He is a left-handed hitting catcher who has an amazingly simple stroke that results in a lot of hard contact and gappers that turn into extra-base-hits. He is not expected to be a big power hitter but has some pop and could certainly develop more power in the minors. He’s got great athleticism and good speed for a catcher. His defense is not known as his strong suit, but it has improved, and he has a great arm. Overall, this is a solid option and Mack looks to have the tools to at least be a solid back-up catcher if not more.
24. Atlanta Braves: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
I’ve got the Atlanta Braves landing right-handed pitcher Will Bednar, a 6’2”, 229 lb. with a fantastic array of pitches including a fastball that can hit 97, a plus slider and a hard curve. It is the typical toolbox for pitchers these days, but every pitch is above average for him although not one pitch stands out as absolutely devastating. Scouts love his composure and intelligence on the mound along with, obviously, his stuff which resulted in 135 strikeouts in just 86.1 innings this season. He also went 8-1, giving his team a chance to win every time he takes the ball. In my opinion, this would be a fantastic pick anywhere in the 20’s and if he’s still available, whoever plucks him will have a great looking pitcher with tremendous upside. I have him going to the Atlanta Braves.
25. Oakland Athletics: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (SC)
For the Oakland A’s, I’ve got Will Taylor dropping all the way to #25. He’s a great looking player but I think the previous few teams will pass on him and go for more upside with potential power production, allowing Taylor to drop into the hands of the A’s. He’s also a 3-sport athlete who is committed to Clemson, another reason he may not go as high as his talent merits. Speaking of his talent, this is a guy who scouts believe can be a solid lead-off type – elite speed and excellent ball-to bat skills. His arm is decent but not elite, despite his skills has a quarterback. His upside would likely be as a get-on-base type who doesn’t strike out much, but he likely won’t be a big power threat. I’m thinking of guys like Luis Arraez or Nick Madrigal. However, again, as a 3-sport Athlete who hasn’t fully committed to baseball, this is a risky pick.
26. Minnesota Twins: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
The Twins are having an awful season and I am predicting they go with a college arm, Gavin Williams. The lanky 6’6” righty has touched 100 on the gun and earned the AAC Pitcher of the Year Award by striking out 14.4 hitters per nine this year, finishing the season with a 1.99 ERA. He walked just 21 batters and struck out 130. This caused him to skyrocket up the draft boards after initially being written off as a late round selection at best after 3 ineffective seasons and a broken finger. Now completely healthy, he looks to be a possible steal late in the first round and I feel the Twins, who may not want to wait for someone like Gunnar Hoglund – another stud pitcher available – to recover from Tommy John Surgery. Therefore, I have Gavin Williams going to Minnesota at #26.
27. San Diego Padres: Wes Kath, SS/3B, Desert Mountain (AZ)
Moving on to the San Diego Padres, they will go for a High School player and I’m guessing Wes Kath. He went from just another High School player to one of the most impressive bats in the country this year after gaining extra size and strength, developing a more powerful swing and unleashing his talent in a variety of events across the country. At 6’3”, the sky is the limit for this guy who could turn into a valuable power-hitter someday. He also has a strong arm, good hands and above average defense. The only downside is he is already committed to Arizona State, and hasn’t yet shown a long sample size of production but again, he only recently broke through with a monster 2021 season. This is one kid I’m excited about and believe would be a great pick for the Padres at #27.
28. Tampa Bay Rays: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ)
Next up is the Tampa Bay Rays and I’ll have them going with a High School arm, in this case, Chase Petty from New Jersey. This is a kid who has touched triple digits and, according to MLB’s report, is completely fearless on the mound. Some scouts feel he has some control issues and is undersized, but when you look at his stuff, every pitch rates well including an upper 80’s slider and a changeup that is criticized as being a little too close in speed to his fastball, but still seems to fool batters well enough – of course, that might not be the case in the pros. Some scouts think his delivery shows too much effort, but with the Rays ability to turn pure stuff into excellence at the big-league level, I’m going to say they take a chance on Chase Petty at #28.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
If any teams has the luxury of taking a pitcher who recently had Tommy John, it would be the Los Angeles Dodgers. In my Mock Draft, I’ll have them taking a shot on Gunnar Hoglund, who, at 6’4” and 220 lbs, has the build of a durable starter and struck out 96 hitters in 62.2 innings this year, using a mid-90’s fastball and sharp slider that scouts love. However, more than anything, they love his control. Throughout all of 2020 and 2021, Hoglund walked just 21 batters in 86 innings. He touched 97 MPH before blowing out his elbow and having to undergo Tommy John. Most Mocks have him above this anyway, but I’m going to put him as the final pick in the regular first round, going to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
So, there you have it for my standard first round MLB Mock Draft. If you’re wondering why there’s only 29 picks, The Astros won’t be able to pick in the first two rounds as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. However, best of luck to them in the third round – I have honestly no clue who they’ll pick. There are several solid names I have not getting picked in the first round – it happens every year. Some names include Anthony Solometo, Michael McGreevy, Izaac Pacheco and several more like Jaden Hill, another awesome looking pitcher who also had elbow surgery. We will see how it plays out, but if nothing else, at least we’ve become more familiar with some of the names that will be available in the 2021 MLB Draft. I’m sending the best of luck to your favorite team and I hope this turns out to be an awesome draft!
