November 6, 2022

Erik Reyes

baseball, 2021 mlb draft, mlb, mlb free agent prediction

Top 25 MLB 2023 FREE AGENT Predictions

November 6, 2022

Erik Reyes

baseball, 2021 mlb draft, mlb, mlb free agent prediction

#25 Joc Pederson, OF/DH

Let’s get this list started with a 2022 San Francisco Giant. He signed a one year $6 million deal to prove himself and for the most part, he did just that with 23 home runs, a 1.3 WAR and an All Star selection despite a rough patch around July. Some cryptic posts tell me that Joc is very frustrated at missing out on the playoffs this year, something he is not used to. Also, he’ll be look for a bigger contract going forward and I have a feeling he’ll be heading to a team that looks like a sure-bet to make the playoffs in 2023. The Cleveland Guardians may be interested although he basically talked trash about them in this tweet. If he’s looking to go to a team on the rise in 2023 though, one fit might be the Seattle Mariners with Carlos Santana entering free agency. Pederson is quite a bit younger and seems like he’d be a nice fit so I got Joc staying on the west coast but signing with the Seattle Mariners to be their DH and 4th outfielder.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

#24 Kenley Jansen, RP

The 35-year old Kenley Jansen may be a future Hall of Famer with 391 career saves and a 2.46 ERA. In 2022, his first year with a team other than the Dodgers, he saved 41 games and had a strong 3.31 ERA, which was a bit inflated after a few horrible appearances down the stretch. He struck out 85 in 64 innings, proving he’s still got it and several teams should show interest in the veteran reliever. Teams that should show interest include the Yankees, Mariners, Padres and Tigers. However, I will say that Jansen reunites with his old teammate Corey Seager, in Arlington, Texas as the Rangers, who need to improve the back end of their bullpen, will continue to try to build a championship team. Kenley Jansen signs with the Texas Rangers.

Prediction: Texas Rangers

#23 Aroldis Chapman, RP

Next up is Aroldis Chapman, the once dominant closer who will be 35 next year and ever since the crackdown on foreign substances, hasn’t been too effective. He had a 4.46 ERA this year with 9 saves and the lowest strikeout rate of his career. He was even left off the ALDS roster. I would assume he is not going to be coming back to the Yankees in 2023. He’s only in the top 25 because he’s Aroldis Champman, but there is a chance he doesn’t even play in 2023. I believe some team that needs bullpen help will at least give him a shot in Spring Training, however, and I’ll go with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have signed veteran arms before such as Ian Kennedy, who had a solid first half for the D-Backs. They’ve also shown interest in Chapman in the past so I’ve got Chapman signing with Arizona.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

#22 Trey Mancini, 1B

Mancini, as I write this article, is having big problems hitting during the 2022 postseason, which won’t help his value during the off-season. He also struggled down the stretch with the Astros, hitting just .176. Nevertheless, he has been a consistent above average bat with power throughout his career and plays excellent defense at first base and can also play the outfield. I don’t think the Astros will bring him back, but he will garner plenty of interest from teams who need a first baseman. This could mean the San Francisco Giants could show interested, but I’ve got Mancini staying the American League and signing with a team who will be looking at first basemen this offseason and that team is the Cleveland Guardians.

Prediction: Cleveland Guardians

#21 Andrew Benintendi, OF

Next up is Andrew Benintendi, who didn’t make a huge impression with the Yankees, but is still a solid better-than-average big leaguer. He knows how to get on base, an asset that front offices appreciate more than ever right now, and he can also play solid defense. His power has never come around like teams had hoped, but he has 20 home run potential and is still just 28 years old. The Yankees should show some interest in bringing him back and he will also find potential suitors in the Rangers and Tigers. However, I’ll say he signs with a team hoping he can unlock his offensive potential in the thin air of Denver. Andrew Benintendi signs with the Rockies.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies

#20 J.D. Martinez, DH/OF

Despite some back issues, Martinez was able to play in 139 games in 2022 and had a solid on-base percentage of .341, but his power seems to have fallen off, with only 16 homers in 533 at bats. Still, he continues to demonstrate a beautiful swing, finding the gaps with 43 doubles and made the All Star Team. J.D. is probably the best available DH this off-season and with the DH now in the National League, several teams will be interested. He will likely sign a 2-year deal approaching $20 million per season. With the Red Sox trying to get younger and more athletic, I see him signing elsewhere. One team that is needing a more consistent DH is the New York Mets, who showed interested in Martinez as the trade deadline approached, but ended up getting Darin Ruf. Obviously, J.D. is the bigger star and probably has at least one or two more solid seasons left in his bat. I see this as a strong possibility and will predict that the New York Mets sign J.D. Martinez.

Prediction: New York Mets

#19 Mitch Haniger, OF

Next is up is a man who drove in 100 runs and crushed 39 home runs in 2021. Unfortunately, Mitch Haniger was unable to repeat that in 2022 due to ankle and back injuries and played in just 57 games. Still, he showed the power hasn’t gone anywhere and if he’s healthy in 2023, at 32 years old, there’s no reason he can’t have another big season. Several teams will be interested including the Brewers and Rangers. However, he has been a long time Mariner and provided plenty of leadership for the young up and coming team. Because of this, the Mariners should be interested in bringing back and there is a chance they offer him a qualifying offer and, if they do, he may accept. However, even if this doesn’t happen, I think there’s a strong chance the M’s bring back Haniger for 2023 and, I’ll predict he stays in Seattle.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

#18 Josh Bell, 1B

Bell was having a fantastic season for the Nationals, hitting .301 with 14 homers when the Padres traded for him. Unfortunately, he struggled a bit with the Friars, hitting just .192, but Bell will still be one of the best available first baseman this off-season. He is a switch hitter with big power who plays below average but acceptable defense at first and has had some experience in the outfield as well. Of course, he would also DH from time to time. The Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox should be interested. However, given that Brandon Belt is likely retiring or heading elsewhere, I think the Giants will be heavily interested in a switch hitter with big power who has some versatility in the field. Without any obvious first basemen on the rise in the Giants farm system, I think this move would make sense and I’ve got the Giants signing Josh Bell.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

#17 Tyler Anderson, SP

I never thought Tyler Anderson would make my Top 25 Free Agents List but here we are. Anderson was stellar for the 2022 Dodgers and went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA, making the All Star Team. He was also dominant in his one postseason appearance, throwing 5 shutout innings against the Padres in the NLDS. Lots of teams will be interested, but if the Dodgers really want him back, I don’t see any other team outbidding them. The Padres will try as will the Cardinals and maybe even the Giants, who gave Anderson a shot in 2020. However, I think he’ll be back in blue for 23, either on a qualifying offer or on a fresh contract. I’ve got Tyler Anderson staying in Los Angeles.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

#16 Koudai Senga, SP

The top international free agent entering the 2023 season is Japanese pitcher Koudai Senga. He brings serious heat and finished the 2022 season with a 11-6 record and 1.89 ERA. In his 11 year career in the NPB, he has 104-51 record with a 2.42 ERA and 1,486 strikeouts in 1,340 innings of work. There should be plenty of teams interested in Senga, who should fall into the #2 or #3 slot for most rotations. Teams interested could include the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. However, there’s one team that is still dedicated to winning a World Series and will be very active in free agency. They also have a veteran Japanese pitcher in their rotation to help Senga adapt to MLB and the United States quicker. His name is Yu Darvish and, of course, the team I’ve got signing Senga is the San Diego Padres.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

#15 Anthony Rizzo, 1B

Another available first baseman this off-season is Anthony Rizzo. Since I have the Giants landing Bell and the Guardians landing Mancini, I’ll take another team to sign Rizzo. He does have the option to opt-in for the 2023, but this seems highly unlikely. Nevertheless, the Yankees will still be interested in bringing the veteran back, who showed great leadership and amazing power with 32 home runs while playing elite defense. The four-time Gold Glove award winner will be testing the free agent market, however, and looking for perhaps his last big payday. It could be a 3-4 year deal around $18 million per season. The Astros, Brewers and Padres will likely show some interest, but at the end of the day, I don’t see him going anywhere else but back to the New York. Rizzo will remain a Yankee.

Prediction: New York Yankees

#14 Jose Abreu, 1B/DH

Next up, we have the always solid if not amazing Jose Abreu. The 2020 MVP and 2014 Rookie of the Year has spent his entire career with the White Sox and, if he hadn’t made his debut at the relatively late age of 27, he would probably already be considered a no-doubt Future Hall of Famer. Abreu almost never misses a game and can be relied on to hit close to if not over .300 with power. This last season, however, he only managed 15 home runs and 75 RBIs. He still hit over .300 with a .378 on-base-percentage, which makes him extremely valuable despite the drop in power. The White Sox do not seem interested in bringing him back, which means many teams will be in on Abreu. I’ve already got the Giants signing Bell, which would leave a hole at first base in San Diego. As a team dedicated to winning and signing whoever they have to, I see the Padres trying to do even better than Bell by signing an absolute stud in Jose Abreu. I’ve got Abreu going to San Diego.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

#13 Brandon Nimmo, OF

The former first round pick Brandon Nimmo has proven in 2022 that, when he can stay healthy, he is an above-average MLB player. He hit .274 in 2022 with a .367 on-base and 16 bombs while leading the league with 7 triples. He stayed relatively healthy, playing in 151 games and when you add in his amazing defensive ability, Nimmo is one of the most well-rounded players in the free agent market. One team that has shown some interest is the Colorado Rockies, but I’ve got the Rockies signing Benintendi instead after they realize the New York Mets are going to make Nimmo and offer he can’t refuse. I think he’s just too good of an overall player to let go elsewhere and I’ve got the Mets bringing him back on a 4-5 year deal.

Prediction: New York Mets

#12 Chris Bassitt, SP

Bassitt followed up his All Star 2021 campaign with the A’s by winning a career high 15 games in 2022 for the Mets. He had a 3.42 ERA and was the healthiest pitcher in the Mets rotation, becoming their only starter to qualify for the ERA title. He doesn’t have big strikeout stuff but gets the job done and is extremely consistent. Bassitt is expected to decline his option and explore free agency. The Mets will try hard to bring him back, but several teams will push hard for his services including the Rangers and Cardinals. I am going to say that a team from outside the USA will make a big push for him and end up getting him and that team, of course, is the Toronto Blue Jays who need some more depth in that rotation to try to go deeper in the playoffs in 2023. Chris Bassitt will sign with the Jays.

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

#11 Willson Contreras, C/DH

The best available catcher in the free agent market his long-time Chicago Cub Willson Contreras. He was a 2022 All Star, ending the season with 22 home runs and a .349 on-base percentage. He should be able to sign for around four years and $75 million, similar to the 2019 Yasmani Grandal deal with the White Sox. There have been reports that, despite not trading him at the deadline, the Cubs have no interest in bringing him back. Therefore, he’ll likely head to a team short on catchers for 2023. Such teams include the St. Louis Cardinals with the retirement of Yadier Molina and the Boston Red Sox, who don’t really have a clear option for 2023. The Mets, Padres and Twins may also show some interest. Ultimately, I’ll say he signs with the Cardinals, who will offer him the biggest contract, needing big offensive production and a solid name to replace the legend Molina. Contreras signs with the Cards.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

#10 Clayton Kershaw, SP

The future Hall of Famer will likely hit 200 career wins in 2023, and every time I’ve predicted him to go elsewhere, he always ends up back in Los Angeles. So, without even getting into his stats and accomplishments, I’ll just say it – Clayton Kershaw is back with the Dodgers in 2023, perhaps on another one-year deal. He went 12-3 in 2022 with a 2.28 ERA, showing that, when he is healthy, he still elite. He struck out 9.8 batters per 9 and was selected to his 9th All Star Team. If he were to leave, there are many teams that would love to have him including his hometown Rangers among many other teams short on starting pitching, but at this point, I see him retiring as a Dodger.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

#9 Edwin Diaz, RP

One of the premiere relief pitchers in the game is Edwin Diaz and in 2022, he earned himself a huge contract. Diaz had the lowest ERA of his career at an insane 1.31 with an even more insane 17.1 per 9 strikeout ratio. He had 118 strikeouts in just 62 innings of work, basically striking out 2 batters per inning. The Mets will undoubtedly prioritize bringing back Diaz, but he is also likely to not sign too quickly and explore his options. He could become the first reliever in history to sign a contract in the $100 million range, surpassing Aroldis Chapman’s record of $86 million. One team who will also be heavily interested is the Blue Jays, whose failing bullpen is the primary reason they couldn’t get past the Wild Card round. As a Giants fan, I’d be ecstatic to land Diaz to become the primary closer while Camilo Doval could be the setup man. The Mariners, Cubs and Rangers could also be dark horses to sign Diaz. Obviously, the big spenders like the Yankees and Dodgers are also serious threats to snag him. However, at the end of the day, I think the most likely suitor is the Mets, who will likely match any offer. If he does leave, I’ll say it’s do the Dodgers. But as for my official prediction, Diaz stays with the Mets.

Prediction: New York Mets

#8 Dansby Swanson, SS

Swanson came back to Atlanta in 2022 and played in all 162 games, smashing 25 home runs with a .277 batting average while securing his first Gold Glove. Where he goes will largely depend on the destinations of the other big 3 free agent shortstops – Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. Teams that will be looking to secure a shortstop for the 2023 season include the Twins, Red Sox, Mariners and, of course, the Braves. Recent reports say the Braves offered an extension of around $100 million, which of course was declined. As the longest tenured Brave, there is a chance the Braves bring him back. However, Swanson has proven that he is one of the best shortstops in the game and will demand a massive salary of well over $100 million – something similar to the 6-year $140 million Javy Baez deal. It could be as high as 7-years and $170 million. The Braves GM isn’t known for these types of massive free agent deals. If the Braves were willing to let Freddie Freeman get away, I can’t be surprised if the same thing happens to Swanson. Other teams that could show interest include the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies and Cardinals. I’ll say that the St. Louis Cardinals, who are ready to move on from Paul DeJong, make a huge offer and end up landing Swanson.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

#7 Xander Bogaerts, SS

In 2022, Xander made his 4th All Star Team while hitting .307 with 15 bombs. He will be another hot free agent shortstop several teams will be interested in after he exercises his opt-out, which he is expected to do. He will demand perhaps an even bigger contract than Swanson and, based on the 4-year $90 million extension reportedly already offered, the Red Sox may not be willing to pay enough to bring him back. The Red Sox still have some infield depth with Trevor Story able to move back to his natural shortstop position if need be in 2023. All the teams I mentioned that would be in on Swanson will likely also show interst in Xander Bogaerts. However, one team that may be particularly interested is the 2022 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who are as of this recording down 2 games to 3 in the World Series. They are looking for an upgrade at shortstop after rookie Bryson Stott struggled somewhat with a .234 average and on-base percentage under .300. Their current President of Baseball Ops is former Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, who has a relationship with Bogaerts. I’ll say the Phils, looking to win it all in 2023, end up signing Bogaerts on a massive 6-7 year deal.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

#6 Carlos Correa, SS

One of the most outside the box free agent predictions I ever made was Carlos Correa signing with Twins – and it actually happened. He played great for Minnesota, hitting .291 with a .366 on-base and 22 big flies. Correa will opt out and look for a huge deal around 10 years, similar to the Texas Rangers contract with Corey Seager. With this in mind, even the Giants could show interest with Brandon Crawford toward the end of his extension. The Twins, of course, will try to bring him back and so will all the teams I’ve talked about who are needing a shortstop going forward including the Red Sox if they don’t re-sign Bogaerts. The Mariners will make a big push for Correa, but I’m going to make a prediction even crazier than having the Twins sign Correa. This time, it’s the Los Angeles Angels who make the shocking 9-10 year deal and bring Correa to the West Coast to try to win a World Series in 2023. I got Correa signing with the Halos in ‘23.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

#5 Carlos Rodon, SP

The San Francisco Giants struck gold with the signing of Rodon, who struck out 33.4% of the batters he faced in 2022 with a 2.88 ERA. He only needed to prove he could stay healthy while putting up his normal impressive numbers. He did just that and will likely opt out of his deal and seek a massive contract. Every team looking to add an elite starter, which really should be all 30 teams, will be interested. Primary teams that have had some reported interest include the Giants, Angels, Cubs Cardinals and Yankees. He will sign a deal around 5 years and $145 million. The Giants could have traded him at the deadline but held on to him, with an obvious hope that they could bring him back in the off-season. The Rangers could make a surprise run at Rodon, but another team that desperately needs pitching is the St. Louis Cardinals, who showed big interest in Rodon during the season. Whether the Giants will outbid them or not may come down to how much money they plan to spend on other free agents who I’m about to talk about. Ultimately, I think the Giants will spend the money needed to bring him back and I’ll say he stays in the bay area, but if he leaves, I’d say he goes to St. Louis. Official prediction, however: Rodon stays in San Francsico.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

#4 Justin Verlander, SP

One of the best pitchers in the last twenty years, Justin Verlander won a Cy Young in 2019, then had to have Tommy John surgery, missing nearly all of 2020 and 2021. Coming back in 2022 to the Astros in his late thirties, Verlander proved he is still one of the best, going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, setting himself up to win his third career Cy Young and creating a massive market for him in the off-season assuming he exercises his opt-out which is expected. The Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Orioles and maybe even the Giants will make a run at Verlander. The Astros would love to have him back as well, but with several young pitchers in their system, they may not be willing to pay the huge asking price for a 2023 Justin Verlander. So, I will say he signs elsewhere. I believe it will be one of the big-market teams snagging up Verlander for his age 40 season and that team will be the New York Yankees, who will create an unstoppable 1-2 punch with Cole and Verlander at the top, followed by Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino.

Prediction: New York Yankees

#3 Trea Turner, SS

The final big shortstop on the list is Trea Turner, one of the most reliable shortstops in the game. He is a true 5-tool talent with blazing speed, amazing defense and power. He drove in 100 runs and crushed 21 bombs in 2022. He also stays healthy, playing in 160 games for the Dodgers and stepping up to the plate over 700 times. He will still only be 29 years old on Opening Day 2023 and will be heavily desired by many teams including the Phillies, Cardinals, Angels and Cubs. However, if the Dodgers want to keep some one, they keep some one. I’ve got them hanging onto Kershaw and Tyler Anderson and they’ll also pay to keep Trea Turner. He stays in LA.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

#2 Jacob DeGrom, SP

There is only one issue with DeGrom and that is his injury history. When he’s healthy, however, DeGrom is simply the best. His strikeout per nine ratio was 14.3 in 2022, repeating the same ratio he had in ‘21. The 4-time All Star and 2-time Cy Young Award winner averaged nearly 100 MPH on his fastball even after coming off the injured list. One team that may show interest is the Braves, who Degrom rooted for growing up. Several teams will show interest since, due to his age and injuries, may get to sign him on a short term deal of 2 years or even 1 year with an opt in option for a second year. I’m going to say that a team that spent over half a billion dollars last offseason makes an insane offer to add some much needed pitching to their rotation and succeed – they will sign bullpen help and rotation help to make a serious run in ‘23 and that’s the Texas Rangers. I’ve got Degrom going there on a one-year deal with an opt-out for the 2nd year. Jacob Degrom is heading to the Rangers.

Prediction: Texas Rangers

#1 Aaron Judge, OF

The best player available this offseason will be one Aaron Judge. He set a single season American League home run record and made a serious run at the Triple Crown. Despite a history of injury issues, he’s been able to stay healthy for the past two years and the free agent frenzy is going to be absolutely insane. The San Francisco Giants have been identified multiple times as serious contenders for Judge. “Judge is at the top of the Giants list and they won’t be underbid,” one source told Randy Miller of NJ.com. “If they miss out, it won’t be because of money.” However, they won’t get him without a fight from the Yankees themselves along with teams like the Mets, Rangers and maybe even the Dodgers. Even if the Giants stick to what they’ve been reported as having said and do “whatever it takes” to get Judge, at the end of the day no team can force a player to sign with them. There is a possibility that Aaron Judge, who has never won a World Series, wants to sign with a team that at least made the playoffs in 2022. I’ve said before and it is still true that I won’t be shocked at all if the Dodgers swoop in and sign Judge. They can always move Mookie Betts to another outfield spot to make room for him. The Giants have been reported “favorites” many times before – going back to Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton. I’ll be thrilled if it happens, but as a Giants fan, I’m not holding my breath. If he does leave the Yankees, I’ll say he signs with the Dodgers, but as for my official prediction – Aaron Judge stays put in the pinstripes.

Prediction: New York Yankees

July 6, 2021

Erik Reyes

mlb, mlb draft, 2021 mlb draft, 2021 mlb mock draft

HBB Official 2021 MLB Mock Draft

July 6, 2021

Erik Reyes

mlb, mlb draft, 2021 mlb draft, 2021 mlb mock draft

It’s time for the official 2021 Humm Baby Baseball Mock Draft. This year, I’ll be doing the entire first round, with all 30 teams getting a pick. While it will be fun to try to guess which teams will take who, the most important aspect of these Mock Drafts to me are really getting to know these players, becoming familiar with their names and understanding some of their strengths and weaknesses, which will make the actual Draft, which I’ll be covering as well live on my YouTube Channel, that much more enjoyable.

So, here is my official MLB Mock Draft for 2021, starting with the team with #1 overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA)

Multiple reports have been Pirates interest in a position player, most likely a shortstop and the hottest name as we approach the draft right now is Marcelo Mayer. He is the prototypical multi-tool high draft pick from the pre-analytical days with above average tools across the board, but also loved by the computers with his patience and knowledge of the strike zone. He also unleashed his power this season, hitting 14 home runs in just 97 at bats. He offers sparkling defense, a strong arm and elite bat to ball skills. At 6’3” and 195 lbs, Mayer has ridiculous upside and although this year there is no absolute obvious #1 overall pick like previous years, my money is on the Pirates taking Mayer with the first overall pick.

2. Texas Rangers: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Although the Rangers are heavily connected to local 5-tool talent Jordan Lawler, I’m going to say they take perhaps the best looking college position player in the draft, Henry Davis out of Louisville. Davis not only has a plus arm that eliminated 34% of would-be base stealers in his first two college seasons, he also has a huge bat, hitting .370 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI in just 50 games. He also worked 31 walks with just 24 strike outs, showing a very strong knowledge of the strike zone. He also has good speed for a catcher and could be converted to another position if a team wishes to maximize his offensive abilities. The Rangers are connected to several players, but I’m guessing they go with a college bat with a super high ceiling and the obvious choice is Henry Davis.

3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

Next up is the Detroit Tigers, a team that has no pitchers in their top 10 MLB prospects right now. They seem to like SEC players, especially those out of Vandy, and I have them taking another - Jack Leiter, the consensus best pitcher in the 2021 MLB Draft. His fastball hits high 90s with movement and he mixes it up with plus breaking stuff. He does struggle with command at times and had a tough midseason stretch during which he gave up more runs than usual, but settled down towards the end of the season, largely dominating during his last four starts and finishing the season with a 2.13 ERA. He struck out 201 batters in just 125.1 college innings. I’ve got Jack Letier going to the Tigers and joining Casey Mize very soon in their rotation.

4. Boston Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (TX)

For the Red Sox, a lot of mock drafts have them taking either Leiter or Davis, but with both off the board on this mock draft, I have shortstop Jordan Lawlar falling into the laps of the Boston Red Sox. He is local to Dallas, Texas and so there is also a lot of speculation that he could go to the Rangers. Lawlar is a five-tool talent with a very solid and compact swing. He can take the ball the other way with ease and can work the gaps. He’s also got great hands at shortstop with a powerful arm. Lawlar is just a very solid pick who could easily become an All-Star caliber big leaguer with at least 20+ home run power with elite on-base skills. He’s similar to Mayer, except Mayer is a bit bigger and may be viewed as having a higher ceiling, especially in regard to home run power.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

For the Orioles, the talk has been that they plan to take a position player under slot so that they can go over slot with some of their later picks. Therefore, instead of taking one of the other big names like Khalil Watson or Kumar Rocker, I’ve got the O’s taking Colton Cowser out of Sam Houston State. This is an outfielder with a quick and powerful left-handed bat. He can hit the ball to all fields with authority but may have to work some on his launch angle to increase his home run production. However, he is 6’3” and has incredible bat speed so he certainly could develop into a serious power hitter. Defensively, he is above average but not spectacular. His instincts are solid, and he has massive upside. This would be a very solid pick for the Baltimore Orioles.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forrest High (NC)

I’ve got the D-Backs taking the last of the big three shortstops in the draft expected to go in the top 10, and that’s one of the most electric players in the draft, Kahlil Watson. He absolutely looks like a superstar in the making. At 5’9 and 178 lbs, Watson is quick, both with his legs on the basepaths and hands at the plate. He has a vicious swing that can result in some tape-measure shots but also maintains discipline and doesn’t chase too many pitches outside the zone. He hits left and throws right and, although he is listed as a shortstop, he could also be a fantastic outfielder or a versatile infielder. This season, he absolutely tore his High School league to shreds, going 20 for 39 with 6 home runs. That’s a .513 batting average if you don’t have a calculator. This kid is the real deal and I’ve got him going to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

I’ve got the Kanas City Royals taking what is probably the most popular name in the draft, although his stock has fallen a bit recently – and that’s Kumar Rocker. The Royals are expected to take a pitcher and although there are several solid options at #7, I am guessing they cannot resist taking the big name and a guy with one of the filthiest sliders in college baseball who can also touch 99 on the gun with movement. He threw a no-hitter against Duke with an incredible 19 strikeouts and led Division I baseball in wins and strikeouts this year. His command isn’t perfect but with a little seasoning in the minors, this guy has massive upside. At 6’5” and 245 lbs, I’ve got the Royals being unable to pass up on Kumar Rocker, who also has an awesome name.

8. Colorado Rockies: Brady House, SS/3B, Winder-Barrow (GA)

While I am curious if the Rockies might take a pitcher, I am guessing they’ll ultimately go with a position player perfect for Coors Field. That player at #8 will be Brady House, one of the biggest names in High School baseball going in the 2021 season. He is 6’3”, 210 lbs and has a sweet and powerful swing that resulted in 50 hits in just 91 at bats during his Senior Year including 8 bombs. He does go into occasional slumps when selling out for power, but reportedly is quick to make adjustments and get back on track quickly. His defense and speed are not as impressive as his bat but still decent. Ultimately, I believe he would punish pitching in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field and if he is still available at #8, I’ve got the Rockies swooping him.

9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK)

At #9, I’ve got the Los Angeles Angles definitely taking a pitcher in an effort to get some quality starting pitching to help out Mike Trout and company in Anaheim. There are several options, but I believe the best option left at #9 will be Jackson Jobe. This right-hander had some unreal stats even for High School – a .13 ERA and 122 strikeouts through 51.2 innings with a ridiculous 5 walks. His main recipe for success is a nearly unhittable slider with an insane spin rate along with heat in the mid-to-high 90’s. If Jackson Jobe is still on the board at #9, the Angels would be smart to snag him immediately and that’s what I’ve got happening.

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, IF, UCLA

There are so many options for the Mets at #10, especially considering they may try to under slot like the Orioles. Ultimately, I think they’ll go with a position player – Matt McLain or Sal Frelick being two big options. I’ll go with McLain, who was picked 25th overall by the Diamondbacks in 2018, but he decided to attend UCLA instead. There, he got even better. McLain is a quick runner with the ability to play multiple positions. He developed some nice pop as well, hitting 9 home runs in 183 at bats in 2021 while hitting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. His bat-to-ball skills are still excellent, and McLain seems to be a very safe pick at #10 for the Mets although he may not be considered to have as much upside as some of the higher picks.

11. Washington Nationals: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

Next up at #11, the Washington Nationals will be looking for pitching and I’ve got them snagging Texas Longhorn Ty Madden. Madden has continuously improved as far as stuff and command throughout his college career. He has a huge arsenal of pitches including a fastball that can touch 99, a devastating changeup and a mid-80’s slider. In 2020, he walked just 4 hitters in 25 innings while striking out 26. His 2021 season was not quite that impressive, but he still showed outstanding stuff to the tune of a 2.45 ERA and 10.8 Strikeout per Nine Ratio, very good numbers for the Big 12. If the Nationals take a college pitcher, there’s a good chance it will be Ty Madden.

12. Seattle Mariners: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University of Ohio

The Seattle Mariners seem to take a pitcher nearly every year, so I’ll stick with that and say they go for right handed pitcher Sam Bachman. Scouts love his fastball and slider and if they can get him at #12, it will be a huge get for Seattle in my opinion. His strikeout ratio blew up every year of his college career from 8.9 per nine his in 2019 to 11.8 per nine in 2020 and then a stunning 14 per nine in 2021, striking out 93 batters in 59.2 innings. This 6’1”, 235 lb righy has hit 101 on the gun and has a powerful slider with nasty bite. His changeup and control don’t grade as high but overall, this guy has huge upside and could end up being a quality starting arm for an MLB team, and I’m guessing that team is the Mariners.

13. Philadelphia Phillies: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

I have the Philadelphia Phillies taking outfielder Sal Frelick, who is considered undersized at 5’9” but is an overall fantastic talent with great speed and knack for making contact. He walks more than he strikes out and has plus bat speed. He could develop decent power but more likely he will be a Brett Gardner type who steals bases, plays great defense, puts the bat on the ball and is just an overall big contributor a team’s success. With his bat to ball skills and blazing speed, he should be a favorite to move through the minors and contribute to his big-league club. If he is still available at #14, the Giants could make a move on him, but for my mock draft, I have him going to the Phillies at #13.

14. San Francisco Giants: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

The San Francisco Giants have the 14th overall pick this year and although I would love for them to get Sal Frelick, I am going to say the go with a pitcher and it’s left-hander Jordan Wicks out of Kansas State. There is also talk of outfielder Benny Montgomery, who may be the consensus best remaining player, but the Giants system could use a legit arm and Wicks is certainly that. He is a 6’3”, 220 lb lefty who has been practically unhittable. In 2020, he gave up 1 run in 4 starts. He has a release that makes the ball incredibly hard to pick up, especially when it’s moving in the mid-90’s with run and cut. He also has one of if not the best changeups in the entire draft. He pounds the zone and pitches with big confidence. If Wicks is available at 14, I’ll be surprised if the Giants pass up on him.

15. Milwaukee Brewers: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)

I’ve heard a lot of talk about the Brewers and catcher Harry Ford, so I’m going to say they end up a match. He has amazing tools across the board including decent speed, not just for a catcher. He has a cannon for an arm and is a fantastic defensive catcher. He has the athletic ability to play other positions, but the Brewers are mainly interested in him for his bat. He has incredible bat speed and can absolutely crush the ball. His explosive swing worries some scouts who think he might end up being a home-run or nothing low batting-average type, but with his incredible athletic ability, it’s a risk a team will be willing to take in the first round and I’ve got him going to the Brew Crew.

16. Miami Marlins: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)

Last season, the Miami Marlins went very heavy on pitchers, so I am guessing this year they take the best available offensive player at #16. That could be Benny Montgomery, a 6’4” outfielder with tremendous speed, raw power and strong arm. He has been connected to the Giants as well. My main concern with Montgomery is an unorthodox swing and reported flat swing that doesn’t launch the ball very often. However, with a few years of development, he could turn out to be a solid big leaguer. I don’t know if he has the highest ceiling, but he could certainly end up being comparable to very good players like Jayson Werth or Richie Sexson – not Hall of Famers but excellent players who helped their teams win with big power and a fine knowledge of the strike zone.

17. Cincinnati Reds: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forrest

With the Reds having 3 of the first 35 picks, there is a chance that they under slot in the first round. They could once again target righty Ryan Cusick, whom they drafted with the 40th pick in the 2018 draft, but he decided to attend Wake Forrest. This is a 6’6” beast who can hit 102 on the radar gun. Some of his secondary stuff wasn’t rated as high but has improved throughout his college career and he now has an above average curveball as well. His raw stats don’t jump off the page at all – he had a 3-5 record with a 4.24 ERA this year – but he struck out 108 batters in 80 innings. The Reds may not draft Cusick this year but I believe they will try to save money at #17 and under slot, and this seems to be a solid pick for some one with serious heat and massive potential – and it’s some one the Reds have shown interest in in the past.

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee HS (GA)

For the Cardinals, I’m going to have them taking a right-handed High School pitcher named Bubba Chandler. His fastball went from high 80’s/low 90’s in 2020 to touching 97 this year. He’s got a sharp slider, impressive curveball and a changeup that is inconsistent but devastating when it’s working. He is a gifted athlete who also switch hits at the plate and plays a solid shortstop. The downside to drafting Chandler is that he is already committed to Clemson not only as a baseball player, but as a quarterback. However, he originally made a verbal commitment to Georgia then switched to Clemson, so no commitments are official. I expect him to get drafted in the first round and I’ll have the Cardinals taking a shot at Chandler at #18.

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FL)

For the Toronto Blue Jays, I’ll say they go with a pitcher, and it will be Andrew Painter. Painter is a 6’6”, 230 lb. righty who has the control of a seasoned college arm. He has a fastball in the mid 90’s and can locate precisely enough to consistently get hitters to chase enticing fastballs at the top of the zone without missing location and giving up hard contact. He also has promising secondary stuff and is simply an all-around excellent pick for a prep arm at #19. There are no major weaknesses other than just needing some work on his mechanics as he progresses through the minor leagues. It is logical to think he may add a couple more miles an hour to his fastball and certainly has some huge upside. If Painter drops to #19, I’d be surprised if the Blue Jays don’t pounce on him.

20. New York Yankees: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

At #20, there are some impressive High School players on the board, but to maximize signing chances, I’ll have the Yankees going with perhaps the best available college hitter, Jud Fabian. He grades highest in the power category and has hit some tape measure shots at Florida. In 225 at bats this year, he struck out 79 times but crushed 20 bombs. He’s had some swing-and-miss issues plays a solid centerfield defensively. Although he doesn’t exactly fly, he does have above average speed, a plus arm, and at worst projects to be a solid fourth outfielder with good power off the bench. At best, he could learn to tap into that power and threaten to hit 30+ bombs although quite a few strikeouts will likely accompany that barring major improvement in that category as he develops.

21. Chicago Cubs: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southland (MA)

For the Chicago Cubs, I’ll say they try to add another Baez and it will be Joshua Baez, an outfielder with an absolute cannon for an arm. His power potential may be the highest of any prep hitter in the entire draft. His main criticisms have been trying to hit the ball 800 feet too often, missing pitches and striking out more than he should. However, this seems like a problem that can be fixed with experience and coaching. He’s also a solid fielder with decent speed and can even hit 97 MPH on the mound, leaving room for a possible conversion if he doesn’t work out as a hitter. Baez profiles very similar to Fabian, except Fabian has slightly better speed while Baez has a better arm and, of course, Fabian has the extra collegiate experience. However, I love the upside for Baez and feel he would be a great fit in the Cubs organization.

22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge (IN)

If Colson Montgomery drops to 22, I think the White Sox will snag him. This is a left-handed hitter who, at 6’4”, has plenty of potential to become a Corey Seager like star. He uses the entire field and has plenty of power potential with a strong arm. He could possibly convert to third base as well. His defense is about average but has reportedly improved this year. Most mocks have him going much higher than this, but as someone who considers basketball his main sport, I suspect he may not go as high as some think. The White Sox have been heavily connected to him, however, so I’ll have him going to the South Side.

23. Cleveland Indians: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY)

Next up is the Cleveland Indians, who I’ve got taking Joe Mack, a High School catcher. Mack, like everyone else in the draft it seems, is also committed to Clemson. He is a left-handed hitting catcher who has an amazingly simple stroke that results in a lot of hard contact and gappers that turn into extra-base-hits. He is not expected to be a big power hitter but has some pop and could certainly develop more power in the minors. He’s got great athleticism and good speed for a catcher. His defense is not known as his strong suit, but it has improved, and he has a great arm. Overall, this is a solid option and Mack looks to have the tools to at least be a solid back-up catcher if not more.

24. Atlanta Braves: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

I’ve got the Atlanta Braves landing right-handed pitcher Will Bednar, a 6’2”, 229 lb. with a fantastic array of pitches including a fastball that can hit 97, a plus slider and a hard curve. It is the typical toolbox for pitchers these days, but every pitch is above average for him although not one pitch stands out as absolutely devastating. Scouts love his composure and intelligence on the mound along with, obviously, his stuff which resulted in 135 strikeouts in just 86.1 innings this season. He also went 8-1, giving his team a chance to win every time he takes the ball. In my opinion, this would be a fantastic pick anywhere in the 20’s and if he’s still available, whoever plucks him will have a great looking pitcher with tremendous upside. I have him going to the Atlanta Braves.

25. Oakland Athletics: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (SC)

For the Oakland A’s, I’ve got Will Taylor dropping all the way to #25. He’s a great looking player but I think the previous few teams will pass on him and go for more upside with potential power production, allowing Taylor to drop into the hands of the A’s. He’s also a 3-sport athlete who is committed to Clemson, another reason he may not go as high as his talent merits. Speaking of his talent, this is a guy who scouts believe can be a solid lead-off type – elite speed and excellent ball-to bat skills. His arm is decent but not elite, despite his skills has a quarterback. His upside would likely be as a get-on-base type who doesn’t strike out much, but he likely won’t be a big power threat. I’m thinking of guys like Luis Arraez or Nick Madrigal. However, again, as a 3-sport Athlete who hasn’t fully committed to baseball, this is a risky pick.

26. Minnesota Twins: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina

The Twins are having an awful season and I am predicting they go with a college arm, Gavin Williams. The lanky 6’6” righty has touched 100 on the gun and earned the AAC Pitcher of the Year Award by striking out 14.4 hitters per nine this year, finishing the season with a 1.99 ERA. He walked just 21 batters and struck out 130. This caused him to skyrocket up the draft boards after initially being written off as a late round selection at best after 3 ineffective seasons and a broken finger. Now completely healthy, he looks to be a possible steal late in the first round and I feel the Twins, who may not want to wait for someone like Gunnar Hoglund – another stud pitcher available – to recover from Tommy John Surgery. Therefore, I have Gavin Williams going to Minnesota at #26.

27. San Diego Padres: Wes Kath, SS/3B, Desert Mountain (AZ)

Moving on to the San Diego Padres, they will go for a High School player and I’m guessing Wes Kath. He went from just another High School player to one of the most impressive bats in the country this year after gaining extra size and strength, developing a more powerful swing and unleashing his talent in a variety of events across the country. At 6’3”, the sky is the limit for this guy who could turn into a valuable power-hitter someday. He also has a strong arm, good hands and above average defense. The only downside is he is already committed to Arizona State, and hasn’t yet shown a long sample size of production but again, he only recently broke through with a monster 2021 season. This is one kid I’m excited about and believe would be a great pick for the Padres at #27.

28. Tampa Bay Rays: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ)

Next up is the Tampa Bay Rays and I’ll have them going with a High School arm, in this case, Chase Petty from New Jersey. This is a kid who has touched triple digits and, according to MLB’s report, is completely fearless on the mound. Some scouts feel he has some control issues and is undersized, but when you look at his stuff, every pitch rates well including an upper 80’s slider and a changeup that is criticized as being a little too close in speed to his fastball, but still seems to fool batters well enough – of course, that might not be the case in the pros. Some scouts think his delivery shows too much effort, but with the Rays ability to turn pure stuff into excellence at the big-league level, I’m going to say they take a chance on Chase Petty at #28.

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi

If any teams has the luxury of taking a pitcher who recently had Tommy John, it would be the Los Angeles Dodgers. In my Mock Draft, I’ll have them taking a shot on Gunnar Hoglund, who, at 6’4” and 220 lbs, has the build of a durable starter and struck out 96 hitters in 62.2 innings this year, using a mid-90’s fastball and sharp slider that scouts love. However, more than anything, they love his control. Throughout all of 2020 and 2021, Hoglund walked just 21 batters in 86 innings. He touched 97 MPH before blowing out his elbow and having to undergo Tommy John. Most Mocks have him above this anyway, but I’m going to put him as the final pick in the regular first round, going to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

So, there you have it for my standard first round MLB Mock Draft. If you’re wondering why there’s only 29 picks, The Astros won’t be able to pick in the first two rounds as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. However, best of luck to them in the third round – I have honestly no clue who they’ll pick. There are several solid names I have not getting picked in the first round – it happens every year. Some names include Anthony Solometo, Michael McGreevy, Izaac Pacheco and several more like Jaden Hill, another awesome looking pitcher who also had elbow surgery. We will see how it plays out, but if nothing else, at least we’ve become more familiar with some of the names that will be available in the 2021 MLB Draft. I’m sending the best of luck to your favorite team and I hope this turns out to be an awesome draft!