After years of frustration, the New York Mets have been sold and Steve Cohen is now in charge. Fans fully expected him to make an array of moves this offseason, including signing a variety of top free agents, in order to become favorites in the National League East. His presence was felt very quickly after he re-organized the entire Front Office and then traded for one of the best players in the game, Francisco Lindor, who came from Cleveland along with solid pitcher, Carlos Carrasco. We’ll talk about both in a few minutes.
This Mets team already had a strong core from 2019 – in fact, I wrongly predicted them to win the N.L East in 2019. I loved their rotation and thought the bullpen would be much improved when they signed Dellin Betances, who went on to struggle with control and elbow issues in 2020. Now, I have to decide if I should pick them again to win the division in 2021. Before making that decision, let’s do a preview of this team including their new arrivals, the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen.
Additions
Albert Almora Jr.
Jonathan Villar
Aaron Loup
Brandon Drury
Jose Martinez
Joey Lucchesi
Carlos Carrasco
Francisco Lindor
Trevor May
James McCann
Jose Peraza
Mallex Smith
Arodys Vizcaino
Josh Winckowski
Yennsy Diaz
Sean Reid-Foley
Most recently, the Mets have signed a couple nice names to add on to a roster that is already become increasingly stacked. Veteran outfielder and great defender Albert Almora Jr. was reportedly signed a few days ago to add some depth to the outfielder but now the Mets have reportedly penned a much bigger name in Jonathan Villar. Villar has mostly been a middle infielder but can also play other positions including the outfield and he can also create havoc on the basepaths, stealing 40 bases as recently as 2019. He stole 16 bases in 52 games in 2020. Villar will give the Mets a ton of flexibility and provide an excellent backup to Lindor, not to mention he has some pop, hitting 24 home runs in 2019.
They’ve actually signed about 7 million Free Agents, mostly to Minor League Deals but some of the recognizable names include Jose Martinez, a guy who doesn’t have the best defense but can actually rake and .305 with a .364 on base for the Cardinals in 152 games back in 2018. He has a career .356 on-base-percentage and after he struggled through 2020, the Mets were able to get him on a Minor League deal. They addressed a shortage of solid lefties in the bullpen by signing lefty Aaron Loup and also got righty Trevor May, who was electric in 2020, striking out 38 in 23.1 innings with a hard heater and plus slider. James McCann was their biggest free agent pickup so far and brings power and solid framing skills to the Mets. He had an impressive .360 on base percentage last year.
Lineup
1. Brandon Nimmo CF
2. Jeff McNeil 2B
3. Francisco Lindor SS
4. Michael Conforto RF
5. Pete Alonso 1B
6. Dominic Smith LF
7. J.D. Davis 3B
8. James McCann
Dom Smith
Here is one version of the Mets lineup – obviously, it’s going to be shuffled around some but just going through the threats here, it is pretty intimidating. Brandon Nimmo has a disciplined approach that makes him an ideal leadoff man. He had a .404 on base percentage last season and doesn’t strike out too much. He’s not a great defensive centerfielder, but there is excellent depth with guys like Almora Jr. who can be a late inning defensive replacement. Jeff NcNeil is a career .319 hitter with pop who punishes fastballs and is a huge asset in that lineup. Then of course, the man who needs no introduction, Francisco Lindor.
He is coming off his worst season, but that can be said for a ton of elite players – Christian Yelich comes to mind. The 2020 season was not only weird and shortened, but Spring Training was stopped dead in its tracks and never properly resumed. It was different for everyone and I fully expect that Lindor will be back to his regular self in 2021. His hard-hit percentages and walk rate among other stats were still in line with his prior stats and he has shown over a long period of time that he is one of the best in the game. This trade was massive for the Mets, who needed to land an elite player this offseason and succeeded.
Michael Conforto had a great 2020, hitting .322 with 9 homers and a .412 on-base-percentage. Even if he can’t repeat that performance, he’s good for close to if not over 30 home runs over a full season and was probably the best all-around hitter on the team before landing Lindor. Pete Alonso is of course an absolute beast who smashed 53 home runs in his Rookie of the Year 2019 campaign. He declined some last year, but is always a threat to go deep at any moment. Dom Smith was in MVP talks at certain points during 2020. Even if he doesn’t have MVP skills, he at least has All Star talent and ended up with a .316 batting average in 2020, leading the team in slugging and OPS-plus. His defense is questionable at best and that goes for a few of these guys, but when offense is this good, I think you let that slide and hope the runs produced easily outweigh any defensive miscues.
J.D. Davis is another example of some one who has struggled defensively, but his bat should make up for that. He hit .307 with 22 home runs in 2019 and even though his average dropped in 2020, he actually got on-base more, raising his OBP from .369 to .371. Finally, James McCann is the new catcher and since the start of 2019, comparing him to other catchers, only Wilson Contreras and Yasmani Grandal have had higher OPS-plus figures while only J.T. Realmuto has had a better WAR. His defense may not be elite but he has improved his framing and receiving skills and should be a major upgrade for the Mets behind the dish.
Overall, this is one of the best 1-8 lineups in the National League, because there are no major offensive weakness. Every hitter is threat to at least get on base if not worse. There is power all over the lineup and elite talents like Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith and Pete Alonso. The only reason to not give it an A+ is because of the lack of two-way players. But the strong offense should more than make up for the defensive weaknesses and it’s not like anybody is just embarrassing defensively – they can all catch and throw a baseball. Besides, the new additions like Jonathan Villar and Albert Almora Jr. will be able to help defensively, especially in the late innings. I’m going to give this lineup an A.
Rotation
1. Jacob Degrom
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Marcus Stroman
4. David Peterson
5. Joey Lucchesi
Although Trevor Bauer is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and just signed a massive contract with the Dodgers, it is my opinion that the best pitcher in the National League is Jacob Degrom. He went full Sandy Foufax over the past 3 seasons, completely dominating and embarrassing hitters. He struck out 104 guys in 68 innings, an unthinkable 13.8 strikeout per nine ratio. Carlos Carrasco was the other guy in the Lindor deal, which is amazing in and of itself. Carrasco came back from leukemia and had a career high 157 ERA-plus while striking out 29% of his opponents. He’s a little older but based on his 2020 performance, I see no reason why he won’t dominate again in ’21.
Marcus Stroman has been out of action for a while but he’s still just 29 and should still have an elite curve and solid sinker, producing nice groundballs for Lindor. David Peterson had a nice rookie season, giving up just 36 hits in 50 innings while winning 6 and losing just 2. The first round pick should be even better in 2021. Finally, Joey Lucchesi could round out the rotation as a solid back-end starter whose curve-change combo that he calls the churve and he keeps hitters off balance with a funky delivery. He showed great stuff until having an awful 2020.
The Mets also got a few arms in the Steven Matz deal including Sean Reid-Foley, who has some experience starting but will likely start the year in the bullpen. Josh Winckowski and Yenssy Diaz were also picked up to provide pitching depth. Overall, the rotation isn’t the deepest but if it can stay healthy, I’m confident that it’s going to be solid at least 1-4. Whether Luccehsi can bounce back from his 2020 remains to be seen, but one thing to note is that Noah Syndergaard should be back at some point this summer. Overall, I think it’s obviously a strong rotation and the Mets may not be done and are still eyeing free agents like Jake Arrieta or maybe a Mike Leake. As of now, because I’m not sure what to expect from Lucchesi or even Stroman, who has been out for a while, I’ll give this rotation a B+. If they sign some one like Arrieta, bump that up to an A.
David Peterson
Bullpen
Edwin Diaz
Seth Lugo
Trevor May
Jeurys Familia
Miguel Castro
Dellin Betances
Robert Gsellman
Aaron Loup
Drew Smith
Brad Brach
Jacob Barnes
Stephen Tarpley
Corey Oswalt
This bullpen has no shortage of solid options. Last season, the big question mark was what Edwin Diaz would be able to bring after a terrible 2019 season. He brought a 45.5% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA. As long as he can keep his control under control, he should be excellent for the Mets. Trevor May was a huge pickup and has a high spin fastball that’s very difficult to touch to go with his sick slider as I mentioned earlier. Other than that, Miguel Castro is solid with a great stuff including a plus changeup and a 13.86 strikeout per nine rate last season.
Dellin Betances had years of success with the Yankees before falling apart over the past couple years due to injuries. If he can get some of his health and velocity back, he could be huge for the Mets but I’m starting to worry that we might never see it. Aaron Loup I mentioned is a nice lefty pickup for the pen and, of course, Jeurys Familia is still there had a nice 2020 bounceback season. He’s usually reliable enough still produces lots of groundballs although sometimes he has control issues and may be better suited for middle relief. Finally, Seth Lugo gave up too many runs in 2020 but most of that was from games he started. He was still great out of the pen and his strikeout rate was still awesome. I expect him to be a full time reliever in 2021 and he’ll probably be excellent.
Those are enough key names to make this bullpen certainly a lot better than average. There are some youngsters like Drew Smith who have shown great promise and the minors and may break out in 2021. I think this bullpen is definitely well above average and I’m going to give it a B+.
Conclusion
The Mets are a team that is pretty much complete from top the bottom. The only possible weakness may be their defense but that comes with the territory when those guys who struggle defensively can rake at the plate. With the addition of a great starter like Carlos Carrasco, bullpen pieces like Tervor May, a superstar player in Francisco Lindor and guys like Jonathan Villar who can keep guys rested and play multiple positions, I think the Mets had a solid offseason despite not landing Trevor Bauer. I’m almost certain they’ll sign one more impact starter like Jake Arrieta and that will make the rotation even better. Overall, I’m going to give this Mets team an A-.