The 2020 Red Sox may have sealed their fate when they traded one of the best players in baseball to the Dodgers for a few nice prospects and some salary relief. They didn’t address a lot of holes throughout the roster and ended the season with a 24-36 record. This is a team that won 108 regular season games and the World Series in 2018 but O How the Might Have Fallen. There were other issues as well, however, despite the salary dump and loss of Betts. Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez both missed the 2020 season while Alex Cora was temporarily fired for his role in the sign stealing scandal in Houston. Cora has been re-hired and will try to get this team back on track in 2021, but the question – will there be enough talent to compete in an enormously powerful American League East? Maybe not, but they are in a small transition period where they are creating a window of opportunity very soon

Arrivals

SP Matt Andriese (FA/Angels)
2B Kike Hernandez (FA/Dodgers)
RP Adam Ottavino (Trade/Yankees)
RP Garrett Whitlock (Rule 5/Yankees)
OF Hunter Renfroe (FA/Rays)
3B Marwin Gonzalez (FA/Twins)
OF Franchy Cordero (Trade/Royals)
RP John Schreiber (Waivers/Tigers)
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Trade/Rays)
RP Hirokazu Sawamura (FA/Japan)
RP Joel Payamps (Waivers/Diamondbacks)
SP Garrett Richards (FA/Padres)
SP Martin Perez (Re-Signed)

The Red Sox added a lot of decent names in the offseason but no real superstars. Kike Hernandez is a super-utility guy with power who has made a name for himself in Los Angeles over the past six years. Adam Ottavino could be huge for that bullpen. He had some bad luck in 2020 and one horrific appearance that led to an inflated ERA, but he still has the strikeout stuff and as long as he doesn’t hang too many sliders, he’ll be much closer to his 2019 when he had a 1.9 ERA in 73 appearances. Matt Andriese is a nice back of the rotation option they picked up in a trade with the Angels and Garrett Richards was a free agent signing who could be a nice rotation piece.

The Red Sox also signed Hunter Renfroe, who was DFA’d at one point by the Rays after hitting .156 in 2020. He has a strong arm, patience and power but he’ll have to be more productive than that to stay in a big league lineup. Marwin Gonzalez is a switch-hitter who hit just .211 with a .286 on base last year and will be 32 on Opening Day. He hasn’t been that great since 2017, but he is versatile with the ability to play multiple positions including the outfield. As far as a depth piece, it’s not a bad move. They also tapped into the Japanese market with Hirokazu Sawamura to help out in the pen. He’s got a career 2.82 ERA in 10 seasons in Japan.

Lineup

1. Alex Verdugo CF

2. Xander Bogaerts SS

3. Rafael Devers 3B

4. J.D. Martinez DH

5. Christian Vazquez C

6. Renfroe/Cordero LF

7. Cordero/Munoz RF

8. Dalbec/Gonzalez 1B

9. Chavis/Hernandez/Arroyo 2B

Here’s some of the expected names to be in the Red Sox lineup. Alex Verdugo is a good all-around player with pop and above average defense. He’s got great hand-eye coordination, uses the whole field and can hit 20+ homers. He’s not Mookie Betts but he was some one who had to be a part of that trade for the Red Sox to justify moving their best talent. Xander Bogaerts is in there for his bat and as long as he continues to rake, he’ll be in that lineup. He crushed 33 bombs in 2019 and has hit at least .300 for the past two seasons. Unfortunately, he ranks among the worst defensive shortstops in the league.

Rafael Devers has a similar issue, leading the league in errors in 2020. At the plate, he heated up after a rough start and ended up hitting .263 with 11 home runs. He’s only 24 and should be in line for a huge 2021, much closer to his 2019 production when he smashed 32 homers and 119 RBI. J.D. Martinez left his bat at home in 2020, hitting just .213 with 7 home runs. Reports from Spring Training say he did bring it with him this year, so we’ll see. He’s obviously a massive threat in that lineup with 40+ home run power. Vazquez has improved his offensive production over the years and is now a legit threat at the plate. He hit 23 homers in 2019 and still has great defense behind the plate.

Hunter Renfroe has power and can crush lefties but he’s a bit of a hacker, resulting in a terrible batting average and lots of strikeouts. He’ll have to hit at least .200 to stay in the lineup unless his home run pace is ridiculous. The Red Sox might want to platoon him with someone like Yairo Munoz, who is tearing it up in Spring Training and trying to get back onto the Red Sox 40-Man Roster after getting outrighted in December. Franchy Cordero is a guy with big power potential and can smash the ball, but too often he beats it into the ground. The outfield overall isn’t solidified yet and very shaky after the loss of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi.

At first base, Bobby Dalbec is another power bat who hits home runs like there’s no tomorrow but also strikes out a lot. If he can keep the home runs up, the Red Sox will deal with the whiffs. Obviously Marwin Gonzalez will spend some time at first base and other positions as well. There’s also Michael Chavis, who has a similar profile – hits big or misses big. He will probably start the season at second base, keeping the position warm for Jeter Downs later in the season. Kike Hernandez and former Giant prospect Christian Arroyo are also available.

Overall, the lineup is about average but a lot rides of how J.D. Martinez will bounce back. His superstar bat needs to come alive in 2021. Other than that, there’s a lot of defensive weaknesses and some question marks in the outfield. There is a lack of solid two-way players, Christian Vazquez and Alex Verdugo being a couple of exceptions. Overall, I’m going to give this lineup a C.

Rotation

1. Nathan Eovaldi

2. Eduardo Rodriguez

3. Garrett Richards

4. Martin Perez

5. Nick Pivetta

6. Tanner Houck

Matt Andriese

Chris Sale

The rotation will have Eovaldi and Rodriguez at the top. Eovaldi improved his control and used his offspeed stuff more in 2020 to compliment his high 90’s heat. He turned in a solid season and will look to do the same this year. Every one was eager to see how Eduardo Rodriguez would follow up his 19 win season in 2019. Instead, he missed the entire year after some Covid-related heart issues. Thankfully, he seems fine and is back pitching in Spring Training. His presence in the rotation will make a huge difference for the 2021 Red Sox. After that, there’s veteran pitcher Garrett Richards, who was solid last year and is another year removed from Tommy John. He’ll turn 33 in May and hopefully will stay healthy and effective for the BoSox.

Martin Perez is another veteran who will eat up some innings, but won’t typically dominate anyone. His control is not the best and he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but so far is a back-end guy at best who wore out his welcome in Philadelphia and got shipped to Boston in the Brandon Workman trade. He did show some improvement with the Red Sox, but will have to do it over a full season. Tanner Houck is a big wild card in the rotation after wowing every one in the first 3 starts of his big league career, earning a sparkling .53 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 17 innings. He was a first round pick and could be the real deal. Matt Andriese hasn’t been a regular started since 2017 but is also in talks to be a part of the rotation. Chris Sale won’t be back until midseason and who knows how he’ll do when he’s ready.

Overall, this is a rotation in transition. Fireballing prospect Byran Mata could get called up later on but for now, this is about what the Red Sox will go with. There are veterans who will just eat up innings and try to keep the game close, a couple really solid arms, and some youngsters who haven’t proven themselves but have the stuff. Overall, it’s certainly not a championship roster just yet. I’m going to give it a C- because of Eovaldi and Rodriguez at the top and the potential of Houck.

Bullpen

Matt Barnes
Ryan Brasier
Adam Ottavino
Darwinzon Hernandez
Josh Taylor
Hirokazu Sawamura
Phillips Valdez
Colten Brewer
Austin Brice
Garrett Whitlock
Matt Andriese

Matt Barnes is penciled in as the closer going into 2021, but his walk rate has been subpar the last couple of years. His ERA jumped to 4.3 in 2020, but he did save 9 games after Workman was traded and he still has great strikeout stuff with high 90’s heat. Adam Ottavino is also a key addition as mentioned earlier and he could get a chance to close out games if Barnes struggles. Darwinson Hernandez has overpowering stuff but didn’t get much of a sample in 2020 due to getting Covid-19. He struck out 13 in 8 1/3rd innings but also walked 8. Ryan Brasier should be a primary setup man with good hard stuff as well while Josh Taylor and Phillips Valdez also showed great stuff last year. It will also be interesting to see how Sawamura pitches out of the bullpen in his first year in MLB. Garrett Whitlock is a Rule 5 guy from the Yankees who has some great stuff but just recovering from Tommy John. Finally, Matt Andriese can provide some nice long relief and spot starts if needed as well. I actually like the potential ceiling of this bullpen. There may not be an obvious lights-out closer at the moment but some one could earn the job if it’s not Barnes. I’m giving this pen a B.

So, there you have it for the Boston Red Sox, a team that is in a little transition period but could be ready to win again very soon. As of now, I don’t see enough here to seriously compete in 2021, but, in a best case scenario, it is possible, especially if Chris Sale pitches well when he comes back. Overall, I’m giving the 2021 Boston Red Sox a C+.