Back in late 2019 going in 2020, before all the craziness – well, there was still some craziness back then, but nothing compared to what we were going to see in 2020 – the Cincinnati Reds were one of the hottest teams in the offseason, making all kinds of moves to improve that lineup including signing Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama to compliment one of the best rotations in the game. I felt that they had done everything necessary to be the favorites in the Central and I even went as far as to picking them to win the World Series.

Fast forward to the end of 2020, the Reds did slip into the playoffs only thanks to the face that were expanded then proceeded to get completely shutout despite the pitching staff doing everything is was supposed to. It was the offense that pulled a no-call no-show. Other than a late season stretch where they actually started to play some good baseball, it was a disappointing season for the Reds. So, now it’s time to re-evaluate this team and see if there is any chance that they can pull it together in 2021 and make the playoffs. But I know what every one thinking and i’s the elephant in the room, and that’s Trevor Bauer, the 2020 Cy Young Award winner, leaving in Free Agency to the Dodgers. This obviously doesn’t help the Reds rotation but, as I’ll get to, they still have one of the better 1-2 punches in the game and I think this can still be a very good team.

Additions

RP Sean Doolittle
RP Edgar Garcia
2B Max Shrock
RP Jeff Hoffman (Trade – Rockies)
RP Noe Ramirez (Trade – Angels)
RP Cionel Perez (Trade – Astros)
SP Hector Perez (Trade – Blue Jays)
RP Josh Osich (Non-Roster Invitee)
RP Shane Carle (Non-Roster Invitee)
RP Braden Shipley (Non-Roster Invitee)
OF Nicky Delmonico (Non-Roster Invitee)
RP Jesse Biddle (Non-Roster Invitee)
OF Dwight Smith (Non-Roster Invitee)

Looking at some of their additions, the Reds have been a little busier than it seems because they’re not exactly signing top tier free agents like last season, but they’ve making some interesting trades and signings, including a very familiar name, relief pitcher Sean Doolittle. The 34-year older reliever was recently a big-name closer for the Nats before losing some velocity and having a terrible 2020 season. As recently as the 2019 postseason, he was a force, yielding just two runs and 6 hits in over 10 innings of work and finishing off four of the Nationals 12 postseason games, helping lead the team to a World Series Championship. And going all the way back to 2012, he was one of the best relievers in the game. Unfortunately, 2020 was injury riddled for Doolittle and his fastball dropped from the mid-90’s to just over 90 MPH. Nevertheless, if he can get healthy for 2021, he will provide some much-needed left-handed relief from the Reds bullpen.

The Reds also picked up Noe Ramirez but that was at the expense of their closer Raisel Iglesias. This trade was a sign that the Reds were not going to go for it in 2021 like they did in 2020 and so in that way it was a disappointing move that appeared to be a salary dump. However, Noe Ramirez did pitch well in 2020 and in 21 appearances gave up 15 hits with a 3 ERA. He’s got a career 9.8 strikeout per nine rate he’s still a downgrade from Iglesias, who saved at least 55 games 3 straight seasons then had a great 2020 as well. The hope was that they were cutting costs in order to afford a big free agent but here we are approaching Spring Training and it hasn’t happened yet. There are few nice players still available though.

Other than that, there’s several decent players that have been signed but no serious impact players. Josh Osich was a guy who had great stuff as a Giants prospect but has never really panned out in the big leagues. Edgar Garcia is a former Phillies prospect to keep an eye on, he has serious strikeout stuff but also serious control issues. They also got Dwight Smith, who used to be a big prospect in the Jays system. Jeff Hoffman came over from the Rockies in a trade and he’ll get a crack at the rotation and finally, Max Schrock was signed to be a utility infielder and backup guy. So, not a very eventful offseason so far.

Lineup

1. Shogo Akiyama/Nick Senzel CF

2. Nick Castellanos RF

3. Joey Votto 1B

4. Eugenio Suarez 3B

5. Mike Moustakas 2B

6. Jesse Winker LF

7. Jose Garcia/Kyle Farmer SS

8. Tucker Barnhart/Tyler Stephenson C

The starting lineup is not much different than last season although now Jose Garcia may be ready to start as the opening day shortstop but if not, Kyle Farmer was re-signed so he can also play shortstop while Garcia gets more time in Triple A if deemed necessary. Freddy Galvis signed with the Orioles if you’re wondering what happened to him.

But let’s start from the top with Shogo Akiyama, a great all-around talent who didn’t exactly take Cincinnati by storm. He hit just .245 without a home run but if you followed his stats during 2020, you’ll know he was down in the 100’s for a large portion of the season. Over the last 25 games of the year, he hit .319 with a .453 on-base and looked like he had found a comfort zone. That tells me there’s a good chance he will be better in 2021 after a year of experience in the states. He also provides great defense and speed. Righty Nick Senzel will also see time in the outfield and could platoon.

Next is Nick Castellanos, who has a beautiful swing that generates power to all fields. He crushed 14 home runs in just 218 at bats in 2020 although he hit just .225. Over a full season, he should easily top 35 home runs. Joey Votto has been slowly declining with age and at 37 I don’t know what to expect, except that Votto will get on base. He has an elite eye and feel for the strike zone and despite a .226 batting average in 2020, he had a .354 on base and .800 OPS.

Eugenio Suarez can demolish a fastball but struggled with breaking balls. He’ll have to improve that .202 batting average, but of his 40 hits last season, 15 were home runs. Let’s hope that with a full Spring Training and semi-normal season he will be much better. Mike Moustakas is another power bat who will be looking for a much better season after hitting just .230 with 8 home runs in 2020. He is a career .251 hitter but is almost always good for at least 30 bombs over a full season. Jesse Winker is another nice power bat but struggles against lefties so the Reds may want to find him a platoon partner maybe Aristedes Aquino who went 8 for 47 in 2020 but has shown massive power in the past.

Jose Garcia is a big time prospect from Cuba. He’s a strong fielder and has shown promise at plate but skipped a bunch of minor league levels last year so he might need more development as I was saying. He can hit for power and steal bases. If he doesn’t start the year in the lineup, it will be likely Kyle Farmer, who hit .266 in 2020 with a .329 OBP and can play almost any position including catcher. Speaking of catcher, Tucker Barnhart will be behind the dish and he’s a two-time Gold Glover but is a lefty batter and has almost no chance against lefty pitchers. Tyler Stephenson should get the bulk of starts against lefties and may even take over the regular starting role if last year’s performance is any indication. He went 5-for-17 with 2 home runs and based on the 2020 performance of this lineup, offense may take priority over defense.

I honestly still like this lineup and like I said in my last preview about the Cubs, I don’t believe 2020. 2020 was the weirdest season and year I’ve ever witnessed and not only did these players not get to finish their normal Spring Training and get ripped away from their routine, there’s also some advanced metrics that indicate the Reds were better than the raw numbers say. Their BABIP (Batting Average Balls In Play) average was historically bad and by far the worst in all of the baseball. It is for the most part a luck metric. It says that the Reds when they hit the ball in play without hitting a home run were horrible at getting base hits.

And if you think they weren’t hitting the ball hard, they were in the Top 10 with barrel percentage, meaning they were barreling up the ball. They did get shutout in 2 games in the playoffs - against elite Braves pitchers, but still – that’s not a good sign. But I do think this Reds offense had some bad luck combined with some slumpage due to the weird season and overall they will be a lot better in 2021. With that mind, I’m not going to give this lineup a terrible grade, but at same time I think it does lack guys who can get on-base, who can hit over .300 and can do a lot more than just go deep. Votto is one but as I said, he’s past his prime and just not going to be as good as he once was. So, all that said, I’m going to give this lineup a C+.

Rotation

1. Sonny Gray

2. Luis Castillo

3. Tyler Mahle

4. Wade Miley

5. Michael Lorenzen

Jeff Hoffman

Tejay Antone

Jumping into the rotation, unfortunately, it’s not going to be as strong as it was in 2020 but as I said, it’s still impressive at the top. Sonny Gray has an elite slider and 3 other pitches he can throw all with movement and impressed again in 2020 with an 11.6 strikeout rate. Then another elite arm, Luis Castillo, who is one of the few starters in the league who can consistently touch 100 MPH. His changeup is faster than a lot of starters fastballs, and it’s a deadly changeup that drops right below hitters bats. Tyler Mahle had a decent 2020 with a 3.59 ERA and an 11.3 strikeout rate and I think may be trending towards an even bigger breakout year in 2021. He proved himself more than worthy of a rotation spot in 2020 and will be huge for the Reds in ’21. After that, there’s Wade Miley, a cutter specialist who dealt with injury last season and wasn’t very effective. He is 34 years old and was 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA for the Astros in 2019, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat that performance. Finally, Michael Lorenzen is looking for another shot at the rotation and without the DH in 2021, he’ll also provide an MLB bat in the lineup when he starts. He’s got high 90’s heat and had a 4.28 ERA last season.

Unfortunately, after the first 3, this rotation has some question marks and will need some depth. That’s where Jeff Hoffman comes in, who was the 9th overall pick in 2014 but has just never been very good at the MLB level. Let’s just say his career ERA of 6.4 is almost 3 points better than his 2020 ERA. Another option is youngster Tejay Antone, who was solid in the Minor Leagues and gave up just 20 hits in 35 big league innings in 2020 with 45 strikeouts. If I had to guess, I think he’ll get more starts in 2021 than Hoffman and might even crack the Opening Day Rotation.

At the end of the day, this rotation could definitely use another decent name for 2021. I don’t think the Reds are in the market for a Jake Arrieta but if they want to just add options for depth purposes which I think they should, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Rick Porcello and names like that are still out there. As of now, because of the top 3 which I have full confidence in, I’m going to this rotation a decent grade. But I don’t have a ton of faith that Wade Miley is gonna bring in ’21 and Michael Lorenzen is some one I’m a fan of but I don’t know if he’d better suited for the rotation or the bullpen so there are some question marks. Tejay Antone does look pretty impressive though, so all that said, I’m going to give this starting rotation a B-.

Bullpen

Amir Garrett
Sean Doolittle
Lucas Sims
Sal Romano
Noe Ramirez
Jose De Leon
Brandon Bailey
Edgar Garcia
Art Warren
Hector Perez
Josh Osich (Non-Roster)
Shane Carle (Non-Roster)
Braden Shipley (Non-Roster)
Jesse Biddle (Non-Roster)

Assuming Sean Doolittle doesn’t show up to Spring Training hot and take over the closer’s role, I think Amir Garrett is the man. This 6 foot 5 239 pound machine figured things out after a couple so-so seasons and now with mainly focusing on the slider and retiring his changeup, he’s tough to barrel up. Opponents have hit .125 off his slider over the past 2 years and in 2020 he had a 2.45 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 18 innings. Doolittle is a bit of a Wild Card but I think it was a great signing just in case he has another big year left in him. Lucas Sims has one of the best spinning curve balls in the game and gave up just 13 hits last season in over 25 innings of work with a 2.45 ERA. Their bullpen as a whole had a 2.86 ERA over the last 23 games of the 2020 season and will have long relief options for the guys who don’t make the rotation such as possibly Jeff Hoffman or Michael Lorenzen. There could also be some hidden weapons in guys like Jose De Leon and Art Warren who don’t have much of a big league sample size but showed dominance in the minors. Overall, I think the Reds bullpen will still be good and it might need to be because there will be a lot of very close games competing with teams like the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers. If they kept Iglesias over Ramirez, I’d probably give this pen an A- but with that downgrade it drops to to a B, but then the potential of Doolittle bumps up again to the final score for this bullpen – a B+.

So there you have it, the Cincinnati Reds are still a very good team and could potential win that division if the Cardinals should falter. I think the Cubs, although they just signed Arrieta and are obviously decent, are not as good as last season. I think the Brewers are not especially scary. And the Pirates… well, I don’t want to be mean. But with a great top of the rotation and a solid bullpen and a lot of power bats that I think will bounce back in 2021, look for the Reds to be in at least a wild card hunt in 2021 for the majority of the season and maybe they’ll be back in October. I’m going to give this team overall a B-.