The Atlanta Braves come next in the Humm Baby Baseball 30 Clubs in 30 Days Series. The Braves were 35-25 in 2020, winning their division. They went on to give the Los Angeles Dodgers everything they wanted in the National League Championship Series before losing in seven games. One of their key contributors was Marcell Ozuna and he was one of the biggest free agents on the market until news recently broke – he will be back in Atlanta on a 4 year deal worth $64 million with a 5th year option worth $16 million.
Additions
Marcell Ozuna
Charlie Morton
Drew Smyly
Josh Tomlin
Abraham Almonte
Carl Edwards Jr. (Minor League Deal)
Ehire Adrianza (Minor League Deal)
Pablo Sandoval (Minor League Deal)
Abraham Almonte
Ozuna was instrumental in 2020, hitting .338 with 18 home runs in only 228 at bats. He played in all 60 games, led the league it total bases and tore up the postseason as well. It’s easy to see why the Braves wanted to bring Ozuna back, even if there’s no Designated Hitter in 2021. Having him in that lineup is so important as he provides solid protection for Freddie Freeman. Ozuna will be the starting left fielder assuming the DH is not brought back and for the Braves, I think it’s more than worth it to have Ozuna in that lineup even if he’s a bit of a liability in the outfield.
Other signings so far this offseason include elite pitcher Charlie Morton and solid starter Drew Smyly who showed some great strikeout stuff in 2020 with the Giants last season. Josh Tomlin, who was a reliable arm out of the bullpen and some one who could start on occasion was re-signed. Switch hitter Abraham Almonte was signed to a non-guaranteed big-league deal so he’ll have a chance to make the team in Spring Training while Carl Edwards Jr., Ehire Adrianza and Pablo Sandoval were all signed to Minor League Deals with Spring Training invites.
Lineup
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. CF
2. Dansby Swanson SS
3. Freddie Freeman 1B
4. Marcell Ozuna LF
5. Travis d’Arnaud C
6. Ozzie Albies 2B
7. Austin Riley 3B
8. Ender Inciarte RF
Austin Riley
The Braves are a team that reminds me a lot of those 90’s Braves teams with a ridiculously talented rotation but also an everyday lineup with serious threats all over. It starts with Ronald Acuna Jr, who doesn’t get enough credit for his high walk rate and excellent patience at the plate. He just waits for his pitch and then crushes it – he hit 14 bombs last season and also has great speed and amazingly just turned 23 years old. He could be on the verge of an insane season in 2021. Dansby Swanson is another great all-around talent who showed improvement in his power, batting average and ability lay off low and away breaking pitches that used to destroy him constantly. Watching him chase pitches out of the strike zone reminded me of a young Matt Williams who used to have trouble laying off anything but once he fixed that issue, he became an absolute beast.
Freeman is simply one the best in the game and the reigning MVP. He’s over 30 but doesn’t look to be slowing down at all and should continue to rake like this few more years, giving Atlanta a nice window to win a World Series while he’s at his best. Ozuna’s return is absolutely huge and the Braves have to realize his importance to another run at a title by resigning him despite the uncertainty of the DH in the National League. After that, it’s Travis d’Arnaud, who had an amazing year both offensively and behind the dish. He might not be able to repeat his offensive performance – his 2020 batting average was 68 points higher than his career average – but even so he’s going to hit the ball hard (he had a 93.4 exit velocity which was sixth in all of baseball) and continue to be a great defensive catcher who knows how to call a game and handle this staff.
At second base, Ozzie Albies hit .271 last year with 6 home runs in 118 at bats, showing power improvement. He’s got 25 home run power and great speed. He could benefit from being a little more selective at the plate as he only walked 5 times last season but other than that, we’re talking about a former All Star and Silver Slugger who just turned 24 last month. Super-streaky Austin Riley is at third base and his struggles have been well documented – striking out too much, chasing bad pitches and being inconsistent. His defensive abilities are also in question. All that said, he has insane power and can absolutely demolish a bad pitch. He’s still very young and, for now, is the Braves best option at third base. Ender Inciarte has a great glove but hit only .190 last season and could end up as a 4th outfielder if Christian Pache earns the starting job. The Braves could even still be in the market for another outfielder despite re-signing Ozuna.
I imagine the Braves are not done yet and will make a few more signings or trades before the start of Spring Training. As of now, because of how impressive the first 2/3rd of that lineup is, I’m going to give it an A-.
Rotation
1. Max Fried
2. Mike Soroka
3. Ian Anderson
4. Charlie Morton
5. Drew Smyly
6. Kyle Wright
7. Bryse Wilson
Mike Soroka
Despite a somewhat disastrous 2020 in terms of keeping starters healthy, this rotation looks amazing. Max fried had a 3.3% barrel rate last year; it’s almost impossible to make hard contact off his mix of three plus-pitches. In addition to his perfect 7-0 record and 2.25 ERA, he won a Gold Glove. Soroka may not be ready for Opening Day after his achilles injury, but the 23 year old first round pick is absolutely electric and when he does come back he’ll be huge for that rotation.
Ian Anderson is a strikeout machine with a killer fastball/change combo. Batters hit .104 against his change-up last season. Charlie Morton is some one I’m a little concerned about because he’s 37 and had some shoulder issues last season. In his last full season back in 2019 he went 16-6 and ended up 3rd in the Cy Young voting. Regardless, he should be a solid veteran presence in that rotation and if he can stay healthy he’ll certainly be someone you want in there. At the back of the rotation will be Drew Smyly and/or Kyle Wright.
Drew Smyly impressed for the Giants last season striking out 42 guys in 26.1 innings of work. He showed better velocity and spin rate and earned a nice $12 million contract from the Braves. I don’t know what to expect from Smyly in 2021 but obviously the Braves were impressed. Wright was a first round pick in 2017 and went 11-4 in Triple in 2019 with a 4.17 ERA and 9.3 strikeout rate. He hasn’t shown that type of stuff in the big leagues yet, but should get at least one more opportunity in 2021 to show what he can do. Bryse Wilson is another guy who may get an opportunity, especially after he held the potent Dodgers lineup to just one run in 6 innings in Game 4 of the NLCS last season.
The starters that the Braves have at their disposal seems to be deep and effective enough to ensure a quality 5-man rotation one way or another. With names like Fried, Soroka, Anderson and Morton, this should honestly be one of the better rotations in baseball. I’m going to give it an A.
Bullpen
Luke Jackson
A.J. Minter
Tyler Matzek
Grant Dayton
Huascar Ynoa
Will Smith
Chris Martin
Bryse Wilson
Jacob Webb
Sean Newcomb
Josh Tomlin
The bullpen for the Braves is currently missing a few key arms they had last year like free agents Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. Still, there is Chris Martin who showed dominance last season with his sinker/slider combo. The issue there is he is 35 years old and injury prone. Will Smith was obviously awesome as a closer for the Giants but seems to have lost an edge on that slider and gives up too many bombs. A.J. Minter may be huge for the Braves next year after showing some nasty stuff last year with a great cutter and high spin fastball that helped him 21 2/3rd innings allowing just 2 earned runs. He has closer material. Grant Dayton is awesome against lefties which is nice but the 3-batter minimum rule makes him a little less valuable. Tyler Matzek is another lefty who really shined last year after struggling for years with injuries. All in all, the Braves bullpen is okay but could certainly use a few more reliable bullpen arms. The Braves need to either prioritize re-signing Melancon, Greene or even Darren O’Day or sign some another reliable reliever in free agency. The problem is most of the best relievers have already signed. All that said, you never know who will step it up and young arms like Jacob Webb and Jeremy Walker could be huge if they return to their 2019 form. All that said, I’m going to give the Atlanta Braves bullpen a B-.
Conclusion
The Braves are a team with a fantastic lineup, helped enormously by bringing back Marzell Ozuna, and a solid and deep rotation. The bullpen is a bit of a concern but if Will Smith and Chris Martin pitch well, my worries might be for nothing. As a complete unit, I believe this is certainly a team that will compete for another National East Championship. However, the Phillies, Mets and Nats (and, apparently, the Marlins too) are not going anywhere anytime soon. As a full team, I give the Braves a B+.