The Seattle Mariners are one of baseball’s least successful teams over the last 20 years, but this drought may soon be coming to an end. After a dreadful start to the 2020 season, the Mariners finished strong, going 20-15 in their last 35 games. They’ve been able to add an extremely talented core of young players through trades and drafts including the Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis along with guys like Evan White, Jared Kelenic and J.P. Crawford. More recently, the Mariners are adding some established big league names to that roster to help them compete in 2021 and going forward.
Additions
RP Ken Giles
SP James Paxton
SP Chris Flexen
RP Keynan Middleton
RP Rafael Montero (trade/Rangers)
This includes closer Ken Giles who has signed a multi-year deal which was necessary because he is going be out for most if not all of 2021 after Tommy John surgery. However, in a weird way, this is a move similar to drafting a superstar prospect in that it requires patience but can definitely pay off in the long run. In 2019, Giles was elite for the Blue Jays with a 1.83 ERA in 53 appearances, striking out an insane 83 batters in 53 innings. He’s only 30 now and will be 31 when we’re getting ready for 2022 and by then the Mariners should be in a better position to compete for a playoff spot with another year of development for their youngsters. This isn’t the most exciting move since he won’t be ready this season but I think it’s a pretty good one.
Meanwhile, James Paxton is coming back to Seattle on an 8.5 million dollar deal that could pay out as much as 10 million with incentives. He had back surgery before 2020 but did come back from that to start 5 games for the Yankees where he did strike out 26 batters in 20 innings but gave up 4 home runs and had an ERA of 6.64 in the small sample. But he is now returning to where he found a comfort zone in 2017 and 2018 when he went a combined 23-11. He continued that dominance in 2019 with the Yankees, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 150 innings of work.
Hopefully he’ll be healthy, effective and comfortable back with M’s and this is a big signing for that rotation that also added former Mets prospect Chris Flexen, who made the most of his 2020 season in Korea, getting in shape and becoming one of the better pitchers in the KBO, but he’s still unproven in the big-leagues. He’ll get a crack at the rotation but could also provide long relief out of the bullpen. Speaking of the bullpen, Keynan Middleton was signed to provide some much needed quality middle relief. He’s got a 3.48 career ERA and a 9.0 strikeout rate for the Angels. A bigger move was getting 2020 Rangers closer Rafael Montero, who’s fastball has only been getting faster, touching 97 MPH in 2020. He went 8-for-8 in save opportunities and also has sinker and solid changeup.
Lineup
1. J.P Crawford SS
2. Dylan Moore 2B
3. Kyle Lewis CF
4. Kyle Seager 3B
5. Mitch Haniger RF
6. Marmolejos/Bishop LF
7. Ty France DH
8. Evan White 1B
9. Torrens/Murphy C
Luis Torrens
Let’s jump into the lineup for this team and it starts out with J.P. Crawford, former first round pick who won his first Gold Glove in 2020 and showed massive improvement with the bat as well. He is spectacular defensively, can steal some bases and work the walk. Although he’s probably not going to hit .300 any time soon, he’s otherwise an ideal leadoff man for this team. Dylan Moore at second base isn’t as flash defensively as Crawford but he gets the job done while bringing power and a 90.4 average exit velocity in 2020. He’s got 17 home runs in just 384 at bats and could be in line for a big 2021.
Kyle Lewis was the unanimous American League Rookie of the Year in 2020 and led the team in home runs, hits and walks. He made several amazing catches in the outfield and is one of the most exciting young players in the game. Based on the power he’s shown so far in the big-leagues, he could potentially hit 30+ home runs in 2021. Up next is Kyle Seager, a veteran who is showing no signs of slowing down. He’s good for 20+ bombs, excellent defense and an elite eye at the plate. In 248 at bats in 2020, he struck out just 33 times.
Mitch Haniger is next but I’m not entirely sure of his health situation after missing all of 2020. If he’s back and healthy like he was back in 2018, he could be a big bat in that lineup. That year, he hit 26 home runs with a .285 average and 93 RBI. Another potential power bat is lefty Jose Marmolejos, an undrafted free agent who the Nats signed way back 2011 and rose through the ranks of the minor leagues until hitting 18 home runs with a .315 batting average in 2018, getting named Fresno Grizzlies hitter of the year. He hit 6 homers for the Mariners last year in just 107 at bats and has 20+ home run potential.
He’ll likely platoon with Barden Bishop, a plus outfielder and runner who hit well in the minors but hasn’t yet shown that in the bigs. If the need for another outfielder comes, Jared Kelenic should be ready very soon. In 2019, the first round pick hit 23 home runs in the minors with a .291 average. Next at DH is Ty France and when I think of Ty France I think of the 2019 El Paso Chihuahuas, the team for whom he hit .399 with 27 home runs in just 296 at bats. He looked like the next coming of Hank Greenberg and since then hasn’t quite shown anything like that at the big-leave level but he did hit .302 with a .362 on base for the Mariners last year with a couple home runs in 86 at bats. It will be interesting to see what he brings in 2021 but the potential is obviously there.
Evan White is one of the Mariners big prospects who they offered a multi-year $24 million extension to before his big league debut. He’s got unbelievable defense but hit only .176, striking out in 42% of his at bats. Perhaps he was rushed a little bit but he has 25 home run power and if he can settle in a little bit and bring that average to around .240-.250, which I think will happen, he’ll be fantastic overall talent for the Mariners. Luis Torrens shows great defensive talent in the minors, getting ranked as one of the top defensive catching prospects in the game. Unfortunately, his bat isn’t the best, with a career average under the Mendoza Line and just 1 home run in 207 at bats. Also look for Tom Murphy to be back in there if healthy after missing 2020 with a broken foot. He hit 18 home runs with a .324 on-base in 2019.
This lineup is sneaky good with quality bat to ball skills like Seager and Lewis, excellent defense all around and 20+ home run power from at least 5 of these names. Some names need more development and there may be lack of superstar power, although Kyle Lewis is making headlines and Jared Kelenic could be doing the same soon. Overall, I think it’s a pretty good lineup and I’m going to give it a B.
Bench
Marmolejos/Bishop
Torrens/Murphy
Shed Long Jr.
Donovan Walton
Sam Haggerty
Looking at the bench, I like the platoon option with Marmolejos and Bishop. Torrens and/or Murphy would be provide a certain set of skills coming off the bench depending on who’s starting. After that, Shed Long and Sam Haggerty both have great speed and could be nice pinch running options to use at 2nd base for that garbage extra innings rule. Shed hasn’t hit big league pitching well though, with just a .171 average last year and Haggerty hasn’t shown a lot so far either at the plate. Same story for Donovan Walton, who hasn’t hit above .200 yet. As long as the regulars stay healthy, this lineup could be nice for defensive and baserunning needs but other than that, it feels like a little thin. Keep in mind with promotions like Kelenic and other prospects, the bench will improve. For now, I’m going to give the bench a C-.
Rotation
1. Marco Gonzales
2. James Paxton
3. Yusei Kikuchi
4. Justus Sheffield
5. Justin Dunn
6. Chris Flexen
Nick Margevicius
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
The Mariners rotation, as mentioned earlier, got a huge bump with James Paxton. However, I think their ace will still be Marco Gonzales, who led all of MLB with a 9-1 strike-to-walk ratio. He had a 7-2 record with a 3.1 ERA and that was after being a 2019 workhorse for the M’s, leading the league with 34 starts while winning 16 games with a 3.99 ERA. Next is Paxton, and if he is healthy, will create a very impressive 1-2 punch at the top of this rotation.
Yusei Kikuchi is a lefty who can hit 95 MPH, keeps the ball on the ground and re-invented himself last season, working on a new cutter and improving his strikeout rate from 6.5 in 2019 to 9 in 2020. He gave up too many runs, with a 5.17 ERA but showed some nasty stuff and I’m excited to see what he can bring in 2021. Next is Justus Sheffield, whose slider fooled lefties all season long. In 55 innings of work, he gave up just 2 home runs. Justin Dunn also flashed some brilliant stuff in 2020, including a 12 inning stretch where he gave up just 2 hits. He ended the season 4-1 with a 4.34 ERA and did have some control problems, which I think are manageable with some more experience since he seemed to control the ball pretty well in the minors.
The Mariners also have Chris Flexen and Nick Margevicius available and could be part of a 6-man rotation, a concept the Mariners have used in the past and are rumored to be returning to in 2021. Like I said, Flexen was great in Korea and for more specifics, he was 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 132 strikeouts to 30 walks. This doesn’t mean he’ll be great in the states, and if needed, Nick Margevicius can also start some games. Also, let’s not forget super-prospect Logan Gilbert, who hasn’t pitched above A ball but may be ready at some point in 2021. In 2019, he had a 2.19 ERA in the minors with 165 strikeouts in 135 innings. This kid looks legit.
I think this rotation is solid. With Marco Gonzales at the top, another year of experience under the belts of Sheffield and Dunn, along with the added experience and quality of James Paxton, I can’t say this is a bad group of starters. With that lineup and this rotation, the Mariners could be a surprise team in the A.L. West. I’m going to stick with the same grade I gave the lineup and give this starting rotation a B as well.
Bullpen
Rafael Montero
Kendall Graveman
Anthony Misiewicz
Keynan Middleton
Yohan Ramirez
Joey Gerber
Brady Lail
Erik Swanson
Casey Sadler
Brandon Brennan
Domingo Tapia
Aaron Fletcher
Andres Munoz
Will Vest
Ljay Newsome
Yohan Ramirez
The bullpen was an issue last season as the Mariners struggled to find a consistent closer. And so, they traded for Rafael Montero, who wasn’t a closer before 2020 but, as I said, was 100% in save opportunities when he got the chance. Then there’s rookie Anthony Misiewicz, who averaged 11.3 strikeouts per nine with a sick cutter. He can handle full innings and be more than just a lefty specialist. Kendall Graveman is still around and can do some long relief, maybe start here and there if needed. Casey Salder has good stuff but walks way too many batters and gets into trouble. Yohan Ramirez showed some filth last year with 26 strikeouts in 20 innings and a 2.61 ERA. Other than that, it’s not the strongest bullpen there are some guys who will have to prove themselves in Spring Training. Still, there are some decent arms and if the rotation holds up, this bullpen should be able to hold quite a few wins for the M’s. I’m going to give the pen a C+.
So, there you have it, a B for the rotaton and lineup, C- for the bench and C+ for the bullpen. Overall, I’m going to this very exciting young team B-. I really think this could be a surprise team and with the World Series Odds right now listing the Mariners at 80-1 odds to win the World Series alongside teams like the Tigers, Orioles, and yes, the Giants, I feel like it wouldn’t be a bad bet to throw $25 down on the Mariners for a chance to win $2000; don’t take that as professional advice, but I’m just saying – I like this team and they have a chance to win a lot of games.