It’s time to preview the first National West matchup for the Giants this season as they head to San Diego after a frustrating 3 game series in Seattle where the Giants came away with just one win in three games. The most memorable loss was Opening Night when the Giants bullpen squandered a 5-run lead with less than two innings to go. Trying to put that in the rear-view-mirror, the Giants now head to San Diego to face one of the most exciting teams in the game, the Padres, who just won 3 out of 4 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
One thing the Giants can be excited about coming into this series are their bats. Although they were shut out in Game 3 of the Mariners series, nearly all of the Giants big bats showed up in the series including Buster Posey and Evan Longoria, who both homered twice and the amazing Donovan Solano, who is hitting .500 on the young season. Alex Dickerson crushed a home run in his first at bat of the season and overall, the offense was solid. As far as starting pitching, Kevin Gausman, who should make a start in this series, was dominant in Game 1 and certainly deserved the W. He’ll try to get one against the Pads in Game 5.
Kevin Gausman
Game 1
Game occurs tonight and will feature Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco, making his first regular season start for the Giants. He looked good in Spring Training, earning a 2.79 ERA in three starts, but all that is history now and he’ll look to bounce back after a tough 2020 with the Reds. He’ll be facing Adrian Morejon, a fantastic looking young pitcher who struck out 17 hitters in 14 Spring Training innings with an ERA of 3.21. With the lefty on the hill, we’re likely to see Darin Ruf or Austin Slater in there with Dickerson coming off the bench. Posey should be back in the lineup as well after two nights off.
Last season against Morejon, the Giants were 5 for 17 with a home run and 7 strikeouts. He didn’t walk a single Giant. The home run was hit by a guy who should be in the lineup tonight, Mauricio Dubon. who is 2 for 2 in his career against Morejon. The only other Giants who had some success against Morejon was Yastrzemski, who was 2 for 3 and Donovan Solano, who was 1 for 1. Yaz is actually 3 for 4 in his career against Morejon.
As for Desclafani, with the exception of a home run by Tatis Jr., he dominated the Padres in April of 2019, throwing 6 strong innings with 6 strikeouts, allowing just 2 hits, one of them being that home run and the other a single by Machado. In his career, Machado is 1-for-6 against DeSclafani. Most of the lineup, in fact, have poor career stats against him such as Wil Myers, who is 1-for-11.
Based on the relatively small historical sample sizes, the Giants should feel good about their chances in Game 1. With a lot of strong righties like Posey, Slater, Dubon and Solano in there and Yastrzemski, who has hit Morejon very well, there’s a good chance the Giants get on the board quickly. If Desclafani pitches anything like he did against San Diego in 2019, well things might be similar to Game 1 of the Seattle series except hopefully this time, the bullpen can hang on. I’ll say the Giants take Game 1 of the series by the final score of 7-4.
PREDICTION: GIANTS WIN 7-4
Game 2
In game 2, the Padres will throw out of their prized acquisitions this offseason and it’s Yu Darvish taking the hill against Aaron Sanchez. Darvish has already made his Padres debut and he wasn’t great, pitching 4 2/3rds innings with 6 strikeouts and 4 runs allowed. Against most of the Giants, he’s been pretty good but Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastrzemski are a combined 5 for 10 against him each with a home run. Dickerson will definitely be in the lineup against the righty. Evan Longoria has the biggest sample against Darvish with 21 career at bats and just 4 hits for a .191 average although he went deep one time. This is obviously going to be a tough game of the offense and I can see Darvish having a big bounceback game after the tough debut.
However, Aaron Sanchez has also had success against some of the Padres, such as Manny Machado, who has a career .171 average in 35 at bats against Sanchez. However, most of their best young players like Tatis Jr, Grisham and Cronenworth will be facing Sanchez for the first time. Sanchez wasn’t too great in Spring Training and I can definitely see the Padres making hard contact against him, but at the same time, he’s just 28 and as a former first round pick, obviously has good stuff and the potential to go out there and have a great game. I’ll say the Giants do score a few runs off Darvish and the bullpen but that this time the Padres edge it out by a score of 5-4.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
PREDICTION: PADRES WIN 5-4
Game 3
In one of the most exciting matchups of the series, the Giants will send out Kevin Gausman again, who as I mentioned looked fantastic in the Opening Night matchup against Seattle. The Padres will have former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell on the hill. Snell, as a career Ray, will be facing most of these Giants for the first time although the only guy with more than 3 at bats against him, Wilmer Flores, is 3 for 5 with a double and could find his way into the Starting Lineup. In his first start his year, he didn’t give up a run in 4 2/3rds. He’ll look to go deeper than that on Wednesday.
Gausman has had limited success against most of the Padres lineup but most of the samples are very small. Nevertheless, based on what we saw last Thursday, hopes are high for Gausman to follow-up with another dominant outing. This could easily be a pitching duel and I’ll predict it goes that way, with the game staying tight until the late innings. Unfortunately, the Padres will gain an edge when the game gets to the bullpen and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants are unable to hang on to any lead they main gain. Unless Gausman can go at least 7+ innings deep, I’m giving the edge to the Padres in this one. I’ll say they take it by a score of 4-2.
PREDICTION: PADRES WIN 4-2
So, that’s a look at the first National League West series for the Giants this year. The Padres are clearly an up and coming team with a lot of strength and I feel that one win in this series, while obviously disappointing, wouldn’t be the end of the world. Especially since the Giants seem to always play well against the rival Dodgers. Their best chances at wins are in Games 1 and 3, and I think there is more than good chance they could take both of them, but I’m going to be honest in my prediction while staying hopeful. Let’s go Giants!