It is getting increasingly more difficult to pick against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Before the 2020 season began, I talked about how this team was practically an All Star Team. With the Mookie Betts trade, the lineup became completely leak-proof. Everywhere you looked was either an MVP-Candidate or a solid All Star who threatens to hit 30+ home runs every season. They measured up to the hype in 2020, winning 43 games of 60 and leading the Major Leagues in home runs and several offensive categories. Even their pitching, which was the only semi-question mark, led the league in Earned Run Average - and did so easily.
The team that wins the World Series is typically the team that gels - and gets hot - at just the right time. Last season it was the Washington Nationals, led by an unlikely song (Baby Shark) and an extremely hot and talented roster whose celebratory dances and skits were absolutely hilarious. This year, I thought it might be the Cincinnati Reds, who I was very high on pre-season and who did enter the postseason playing great baseball. They didn’t score a single run in their Wild Card Series against the Braves. I was also very high on the White Sox. They’re also out. Of the teams that remain, the Dodgers might be that team - they’re hot, they seem to be highly motivated, firing on all cylinders, and determined to win it all this season.
Now, to get into their opponent in this NLDS, the Padres. Although the San Diego Padres survived a scare against St. Louis (They lost Game 1 and were down 4-0 in the Elimination Game 2), they’re also playing great, although there are some injury issues I am about to get into with the Starting Pitching that is very concerning. Neverthless, there is no lack of stars in San Diego and this series should be extremely exciting. With former Dodger Manny Machado, the MVP-candidate Fernando Tatis Jr, and veterans like Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers in the lineup, the Padres have no shortage of power threats.
Starting Pitching
The latest report is that the Padres don’t expect Dinelson Lamet to be ready for this series. This is going to hurt a lot as Lamet has been one of the most reliable and dominant starters for the Pads this season. He struck out 93 batters in 63 innings and had an ERA of 2.09.
However, according to a tweet by Bob Nightengale, who is not always the most reliable source, the Padres do expect to have Mike Clevinger ready. Clevinger was pitching at his best before his injury, shutting out the Giants through 7 innings on September 13th, while walking just 1 and allowing 2 hits.
The other options for the Padres are solid but concerning. Zach Davies only got through two innings against the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series, 5 hits, 4 runs and bomb. However, he was one of their better options during the season, compiling a 7-4 record with a 2.74 ERA. Chris Paddack also got pounded by the Cardinals and allowed 14 home runs in 59 innings in the regular season - not a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Garrett Richards and Adrian Morejon are also possibilities but neither would be expected to go more than 4-5 innings if that.
The Dodgers have some issues of their own regarding the rotation. Walker Buehler has pitched just twice since two separate stints on the injured list because of a blister on his right index finger. He did pitch four innings in the wild-card series. He is expected to pitch in Game 1 with Clayton Kershaw going in Game 2. Kershaw had a fantastic season that continued into the playoffs where he pitched 8 shutout innings against the Brewers, striking out 13. Julio Urias and Dustin May are among the other options for the Dodgers, both very solid. All things considered, the Dodgers definitely have an edge with the rotation.
Lineups
The latest lineup the Dodgers put together on October 1st isn’t much different than the lineup we expected to see throughout 2020. They’ve avoided major injuries and have performed as expected, with possible exception of prospect Gavin Lux, who struggled to the tune of .175 batting average. Neverthless, this lineup is relentless, led by Mookie Betts and Corey Seager at the top.
Of course, the Padres also start their lineup with a bang featuring Trent Grisham and then Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in the 2 and 3 hole. Both teams offer even more power in the middle of the lineups. Turner, Muncy, Smith and Bellinger combined to hit 36 home runs in the regular season, while the Padres next four - Hosmer, Pham, Moreland and Myers - combined to hit 37. Cronenworth is also noteworthy as he had an excellent rookie year for the Pads, hitting .285 with 4 homers and a .354 On-Base-Percentage.
When these lineups are dissected, the Padres measure up well. Both lineups contain multiple MVP-type players along with a ton of powerful veterans and highly talented youngsters. The Dodgers may have an edge but it’s a slighter edge than one might expect and statistics agree. Over the course of the 2020 season, the Dodgers hit 118 home runs with a .256 batting average and .338 OBP while the Padres hit just 95 bombs but had a higher batting average at .257 and and an On-Base Percentage only slightly lower at .333. The Dodgers have to be given the slight edge due to their unbelievable power and better offensive performance head-to-head in 2020.
Bullpen
The Padres bullpen has been ridiculously impressive in the playoffs so far. However, having your bullpen lead the team to beat the Brewers in a best of 3 is a lot different than using that strategy to bea the Dodgers in a best of 5. As I mentioned earlier, the Padres starters - with the possible exception of Clevinger, will likely not be going too deep into games. This means relievers like Drew Pomeranz and other lefties will have to be able to consistently retire batters like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Corey Seager while dealing with righties sprinkled throughout their places in the lineups (Remember the 3-batter minimum too). Adrian Morejon is another one of those lefties but he served up seven home runs in 19 innings this season. Matt Strahm is another reliable option. As for a closer, Trevor Rosenthal is back in his prime apparently and completely dealing with 38 strikeouts in 23 innings and a 1.9 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen also has its share of solid arms with righties Joe Kelly, Pedro Baez, and flamethrower Brusdar Graterol to go along with lefty Blake Treinen. Kenley Jansen was excellent throughout the first month of the season as well. Their bullpen started to struggle in September but overall, they have the arms; it’s just a question of using them properly and we’ve seen Dave Roberts fail at that in the past, including last season in my opinion when he insisted on going with Clayton Kershaw out of the pen in an elimination game when he had an array of healthy and rested relievers in the bullpen.
Both teams have excellent arms, but given the performance we’ve seen from that San Diego pen lately, I have to give them a slight edge with the bullpen as we enter this series. However, this Dodger lineup can make any bullpen look atrocious.
All things considered, the Dodgers have the slight edge in this series and, if forced to pick a winner, even myself as a Giants fan would have to give the Dodgers the pick, especially considering the situations with Clevinger and Lamet. That said, this Padres team may be the only team that can take out the Dodgers as every other team will have to do it in a best of seven, which feels damn near impossible.