The Houston Astros finished the last full 162 game season with a record of a 107-55, finishing a 3rd straight season over 100 wins. This included a World Series trophy and two American League Championships but then of course everything came crashing down with one report from The Athletic detailing the sign-stealing setup they used during the 2017 season and this of course led to the firing of manager AJ Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow, a $5 million fine and the forfeiture of their first two choices in the 2020 and 2021 MLB Drafts. How 2020 was going to develop for the Astros was going to be one of the most interesting storylines in baseball, but instead Covid-19 hit and the season was halted and then it turned into a 60-game season with no fans.

The Astros finished a disappointing 29-31 after Justin Verlander was lost for the season after one start and 2019 Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez played in just two games. The entire infield for Houston struggled at the plate during the season as well. However, once the playoffs started, the Astros returned to their championship form, taking out the Twins and A’s and then giving the Rays everything they wanted in the ALCS. Now, with a full 162 game season, Dusty Baker at the helm for his second season, a lot of strong talent still on this team, and a division that isn’t the strongest, even if you hate them, you probably shouldn’t write off the Astros.

Arrivals

SP Jake Odorizzi
OF Michael Brantley (Re-Signed)
C Jason Castro (FA/Padres)
RP Pedro Baez (FA/Dodgers)
RP Ryne Stanek (FA/Marlins)
RP Steve Cishek (Minors)
OF Steven Souza Jr. (Minors)
OF Jose Siri (Minors)

Other than Jake Odorizzi, who was just signed as I’m writing this article, the biggest Free Agent signing for the Astros has to be bringing back Michael Brantley. Most didn’t think it was possible, especially after reports that a deal was basically done and he was heading to Toronto. Those reports were inaccurate and only a few hours later, Brantley was coming back to Houston. He is a powerful lefty who has hit at least .300 in 3 consecutive seasons and made the last three All Star Teams. It was a massive accomplishment to bring Brantley back. Jason Castro was signed to return to team that drafted him in this first round and where he played for six seasons going back to when the Astros were in the National League. He is great defensively but not the best hitter although he can work a walk and has some pop. As a lefty, he’s a nice platoon partner with Martin Maldonado.

Pedro Baez, one of the most consistent arms out of the Dodgers bullpen for the past seven years, was also signed to improve a bullpen that had its share of struggles in 2020. Ryne Stanek is another solid bullpen piece with big strikeout numbers although he had an inflated ERA the past couple seasons as he dealt with injuries and Covid-19. More bullpen help was signed as well with Steve Cishek and he’ll have a good shot to make the team out of Spring Training. Jose Siri was supposedly a 5-tool top prospect in the Reds system who never panned out and ended up the Giants organization, but never got to the big leagues there either. He’ll probably start out in Sugar Land to see what he can do there, but he’s got a huge ceiling if he can put it all together. Steven Souza Jr. was also signed to a minor league deal and the last time he played in a full season, he hit 30 home runs for the Rays in 2017. He has struggled since then, especially with his batting average which dipped to .148 in limited time in 2020.

As for Odorizzi, this is a massive signing to help replace the loss of the recently injured Framber Valdez. Odorizzi will bring experience and quality to a rotation that was looking very shaky, especially after Valdez went down.

Lineup

1. Jose Altuve 2B

2. Alex Bregman 3B

3. Michael Brantley LF

4. Carlos Correa SS

5. Yordan Alvarez DH

6. Yuli Gurriel 1B

7. Kyle Tucker RF

8. Maldonado/Castro C

9. Straw/McCormick CF

Looking at a potential 2021 Astros lineup, you have Jose Altuve at the top, one of the biggest stars in the game and a career .315 hitter who hit only .219 last year. Obviously, a lot of people will have their theories as to why and we know what those theories will be connected to, but there’s also the possibility that he’s selling out for power more than ever before, especially after crushing 5 home runs in eleven 2019 postseason games. Whatever the reason, a lot of star hitters suddenly forgot how to hit in 2020 including Christian Yelich, Kris Bryant and Cody Bellinger. I expect them all to better in 2021; I just don’t know how much better.

Alex Bregman also had a down-year, but his .801 OPS was still better than the average big-league hitter. He had some hamstring problems that also contributed to his struggles. Reports are that he is 100% and ready to go for 2021. Brantley is back as mentioned, a huge re-signing for Houston. Carlos Correa is next and I was shocked when looking at his career stats, he’s only played over 110 games once in his career. He is constantly dealing with injury issues and also underperformed in 2020, with the lowest OPS of his career. Still, the talent is there and he’s only 26 years old. 2021 is a big year for Correa, especially if he wants a big extension or payday in free agency.

Yordan Alvarez is coming off knee surgery, but once he’s fully recovered, he’s a beast who can absolutely crush the ball. He hit 27 home runs in just 313 at bats. Don’t expect that same home run pace after surgery, a missed season and a de-juiced baseball, but he’ll still hit his share of bombs. Yuli Gurriel also dealt with injury in 2020, but when healthy he hit well. He doesn’t strike out much, can go deep and plays solid defense. Then there’s Kyle Tucker, who tore it up down the stretch with a powerful left handed swing. He also hit .306 in the playoffs with a home run in 49 at bats. Look for him to have a breakout season in 2021, hitting close to 30 home runs and 100 RBI while stealing 25 bases.

Behind the plate, there’s not a ton of offense but Martin Maldonado has some good pop and is a gold glove defender behind the plate. Castro is also great defensively, can frame pitches and as a left-handed hitter, is a nice compliment to Maldonado. Obviously, the ‘Stros will miss George Springer in centerfield, but Myles Straw is a speedester who had an on-base percentage around .400 in the Minor Leagues. He showed something similar in 2019 but, as the story usually goes, he struggled in 2020. He’ll get an opportunity this year as will Chas McCormick, who made a case for himself with a solid Minor League Career after getting drafted in the 21st round. Other guys to keep an eye on for centerfield include Steven Souza Jr. and Pedro Leon, an absolute machine out of Cuba, who has extreme power and very high ceiling.

This lineup has a lot of the same names as we’ve seen in recent seasons. The talent is there, but they need to stay healthy and more productive than 2020 in order to make a playoff push in ’21 without expanded playoffs. With Brantley back and a potentially big season for Tucker, this lineup should be strong although obviously it will miss Springer. In the back of my mind though, I see a possibility of Leon being the starting centerfielder by the end of the year and absolutely mashing Juan Soto-style. Overall, I’m giving this lineup a B+.

Rotation

1. Zack Greinke

2. Jake Odorizzi

3. Lance McCullers Jr.

4. Jose Urquidy

5. Cristian Javier

Luis Garcia

Brandon Bielak

Forrest Whitley

The rotation will miss Verlander for most if not all of 2021, which was already known, but now it looks like they’ll also be missing Framber Valdez for a while with a fractured ring finger on his pitching hand. This will really hurt the rotation and with some payroll limitations, I was doubtful that the ‘Stros could sign Odorizzi, but they did it. Jake Odorizzi makes this rotation instantly better and was a mandatory signing to stay favorites in the West. However, there are still some other nice names like Zack Greinke. Greinke’s velocity has fallen, but he’s a smart pitcher who knows how to locate and get outs. In his last 22 starts, he’s walked just 18 batters. Despite a higher ERA in 2020, a deeper inspection into some advanced stats will show he was still pitching about as well as he was in 2019 when he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA. Of course, in his late thirties, you never know.

McCullers Jr. dominated at Minute Maid Park with a 1.42 ERA in 5 starts in 2020, but struggled on the road. He’s another year removed from Tommy John and should have some more sharpness on that curve in ’21. Jose Urquidy is a mentally tough guy with good stuff, impressing the world with 5 shutout innings in Game 4 of the 2019 World Series. In 2020, his strikeout rate was down but he pitched well enough to have a sub-3 ERA and showed 97-MPH heat in the playoffs. With all the injuries, his importance has been bumped up. Cristian Javier is one of the rising stars for Houston and his importance in 2021 can’t be overstated. He has a slow, sweeping slider that righties have trouble touching. In 2020, he finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting and despite not having great velocity, his slider gives him the potential to strike out 200 batters.

Luis Garcia was one of the frontrunners for the 5th spot before the Odorizzi signing. He looked great in 2020 in a tiny sample size but hasn’t pitched above Single A. Brandon Bielak is another solid option, but did not pitch as well in his Major League 2020 sample but has great stuff. Finally, there’s Forrest Whitley, one of the Astros top prospects. The fact that he got roughed up in Triple A in 2019 shows he might need more seasoning before his big-league debut, but the Astros liked what they saw from him at the alternate camp in 2020.

The rotation was not looking like a strength for the Astros, but they have made it much better with Odorizzi as if he stays healthy and productive, this rotation should be decent. They certainly can’t afford anymore injuries though. I’m going to give this rotation a B-.

Bullpen

Ryan Pressly
Brooks Raley
Enoli Paredes
Blake Taylor
Andre Scrubb
Ryne Stanek
Austin Pruitt
Josh James
Nivaldo Rodriguez
Pedro Baez
Steve Cishek

The bullpen for the Astros was inconsistent at best in 2020 and some improvements have been made. One guy who will be back is Ryan Pressly, who earned the closer job in 2020, finishing with 12 saves – a good amount of of saves for a 60-game season. He has a nice 3-pitch mix with a good slider and mid 90’s fastball. Their young core of relievers that include Andrew Scrubb and Enolie Paredes did well to limit runs but struggled with command. Paredes is nasty and with a year under his belt, he could be in line for a huge 2021. To help the youngsters out, the Astros signed Baez, Stanek and Cishek who will all bring some much-needed experience and success to the pen. Sidewinder Joe Smith should be back as well to add more experience. Another key guy is Brooks Raley, who impressed in 2022, racking up 21 strikeouts in 16 innings with a sick cutter/slider combo. Overall, this bullpen should be more than solid in 2021 as long as the rotation doesn’t completely wear them out. I’m going to give it a B+.

So there you have it for the 2021 Houston Astros, a team that still has a ton of talent and if that rotation can just keep it together, this team should compete for at least a Wild Card and possibly for a division title in 2021. Overall, I’m going to give the Astros a B+.