The Arizona Diamondbacks were a team that looked decent going in 2020 with a chance to compete for at least a Wild Card after signing Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun among others. Unfortunately, things went in the opposite direction. The D-Backs finished in the cellar, losing 35 out of 60 games while Bumgarner got lit up and other guys expected to produce like Eduardo Escobar struggled. There were a few bright spots like Zac Gallen but overall, it was a massive disappointment of a season that led to trading away key players like Marte and closer Archie Bradley.

Additions

Tyler Clippard (FA)
Asdrubal Cabrera (FA)
Joakim Soria (FA)
Ryan Buchter (Minors)
Carlos Navas (Minors)
Ryder Jones (Minors)
Trayce Thompson (Minors)

Instead of trying again and going crazy in free agency, the D-Backs have been very quiet this offseason although they have reportedly come to an agreement with veteran reliever Tyler Clippard, who should definitely add some stability to that bullpen. The deal is reportedly worth about $2.25 million with an option for 2022. He pitched briefly for the D-Backs back in 2016 and has a career 3.13 ERA with an even 10 strikeouts per nine ratio. He’s been incredibly consistent throughout his entire career and most recently had a 2.77 ERA with the Twins in 2020. They also signed another Asdrubal Cabrera, who has a solid bat and can move around the infield, bringing some nice versatility and a big league veteran to help mentor some of the younger prospects.

Joakim Soria was also penned to a one year deal and the former Royals closer had a 2.82 ERA for the A’s last season. All three of these signings are guys who have continued to perform well but they are also all older veterans who could begin to decline at any moment. Some of their advanced stats are cause for concern, but then again, these signings are more for depth and experience than game-changers. The D-Backs can’t really afford to make any major signings right now after the Bumgarner deal – so they seem to be in wait and see mode, making these veteran signings ideal for the moment.

Other familiar names might include Ryan Buchter, a very good left-handed reliever who has pitched well recently for the A’s and should have a good shot at making the team, long-time Giants prospect Carlos Navas, who showed some great stuff in the minors, former second round pick Ryder Jones, a talented infielder with power who battled injuries and never got a full big league opportunity, former White Sox prospect and power-hitter Trayce Thompson, who’s still hanging around after washing out of the big leagues a couple years ago and

Lineup

1. Ketel Marte 2B

2. Christian Walker 1B

3. David Peralta LF

4. Eduardo Escobar 3B

5. Kole Calhoun RF

6. Nick Ahmed SS

7. Daulton Varsho CF

8. Carson Kelly C

Bench

Asdrubal Cabrera IF

Pavin Smith C

Josh Rojas IF

Wyatt Mathisen IF

Tim Locastro OF

Stephen Vogt C

Here is an example of a starting lineup for the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks, which looking at reminds me why I liked them so much a year ago. Ketel Marte was the 2019 batting champ with power and was one of the key reasons I was hot on the D-Backs going into 2020. He went from 32 bombs in 2019 to a grand total of 2 in 2020. He’s still hit the ball well to all fields, had great speed and solid defense but it would be nice if he could find that power from 2019. I am guessing he does find it again with at least 25 home runs in 2021. Christian Walker will do the same while playing good defense at first. He can work the walk, keep his batting average above .250 and threaten to go deep at any moment.

David Peralta is great two-way talent who won a Silver Slugger in 2018 then a Gold Glove in 2019. He doesn’t walk much but hit over .300 in 2020 and in his last full season crushed 30 home runs. After all that it’s Eduardo Escobar’s turn. He also had a massive 2019, hitting 32 bombs and 118 RBI then fell flat in 2020, hitting .212 with just 4 homers in over 200 at bats. At 32, he could be better in 2021 than 2020 but don’t expect 118 RBI again. Kole Calhoun continues to crush the ball while playing strong defense in the outfield. He was the one guy who did not have a power outage in 2020 by smashing 16 home runs finishing 3rd in the National League.

Nick Ahmed has usually been known as a gold glove defender with a decent bat, but has recently shown more power, hitting 19 bombs in 2019. He hit .266 with a career high .327 on base in 2020 as well and is definitely a guy you want in the lineup. Daulton Varsho is currently in line to be the centerfielder despite some struggles at the plate last year. He was originally catcher but his speed and athleticism are above average and he has a powerful line-drive swing that should yield good results over a full season. Carson Kelly is another guy who showed a drop in production in 2020 after hitting 18 home runs in 2019. Stephen Vogt also struggled in 2020 as compared to his 2019. This was the story of 2020 – massive underperformance as compared to what was expected based on the 2019 season.

There are some nice options off the bench like Tim Locastro, who has consistently shown amazing on-base and bat-to-ball skills and might end up starting more often than not. Also newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera, as mentioned, can play all over the infield and handle the bat. Overall, the lineup still looks impressive – especially if you get 2019 production. However, every one is now 2 years older and most are coming off subpar seasons. I do think you can expect most who struggled in 2020 to be slightly better but guys like Escobar need to be a lot better. Based on 2020, this lineup is not nearly as scary as it should be, but just because of all the power threats and the possibility of this lineup averaging 20 home runs per, I can’t give it any lower than a B-.

Rotation

1. Zac Gallen

2. Madison Bumgarner

3. Caleb Smith

4. Luke Weaver

5. Merill Kelly

Alex Young

The rotation for the Diamondbacks actually doesn’t look bad on paper, but upon deeper inspection has some issues. Zac Gallen had a 2.78 ERA in 2020, averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine and would have been an All Star if there was an All Star Game. His fastball has impressive movement and he has plus breaking stuff that make him difficult to barrel up. Madbum is some one I’ll be rooting for even in a D-Backs uniform after a velocity drop caused him to get shelled to the tune of a 6.48 ERA and 1-4 record in 9 starts. He gave up a startling 13 bombs in 42 innings. The good news is he looked better after coming off the injured list with a back issue and surely has been working hard to do whatever he has to in order to be better in ’21. I can’t say the DBacks will ever get vintage 2014 Bumgarner or not regret the contract but he should be better this year.

Caleb Smith has a nice high-spin fastball and pitched well in 2020 but after only 14 innings of work with Miami and Arizona, that 2.57 ERA might be a little misleading. He also gave up 3 home runs and 12 walks. A better sample size might be 2019 when he was 10-11 with a 4.52 ERA. He was still decent, throwing 153 innings and giving up 128 hits but he gives up a lot of fly balls, many of which are caught and many of which become a souvenir. If healthy, he’s serviceable but don’t expect a sparkling ERA over a full season.

Luke Weaver has also been known to give up the long ball and this is becoming a trend in the rotation. He gave up 10 bombs in 52 innings in 2020 with a horrifying record of 1-9 and a 6.58 ERA. He’s still only 27 and certainly a candidate for a big bounce back season if he can slow down on giving up big flies. Merrill Kelly might be the best option other than Zac Gallen just based on results. He was 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 2020 and has a nice low to mid-90’s fastball with a nice mix of cutters and breaking stuff. He hits his spots, limits walks and could be in line for at least a decent season in 2021 although I doubt he’ll be making any All Star Games. Lefty Alex Young is another option and he isn’t going to blow any one away but is also serviceable.

I am fairly certain most realistic Diamondbacks fans are heavily concerned about this rotation. So much rides on how Bumgarner will bounce back and if Zac Gallen’s 2020 was the real deal. In my opinion, Gallen’s stuff is legit and he will be good again in ’21. Bumgarner should be better but likely won’t be unhittable – unless of course the D-Backs make the playoffs and then never bet against Mad-Bum. After that, the rest of the rotation if healthy should be serviceable but not great. I’m going to give the D-Backs rotation, out of respect for Bum, a C-.

Bullpen

Tyler Clippard
Stefan Crichton
Joakim Soria
Kevin Ginkel
Yoan Lopez
Riley Smith
Keury Mella
Travis Bergen
Taylor Clarke
Taylor Widener
Humberto Castellanos

The bullpen for the Diamondbacks was hurt by the departure of Archie Bradley but maybe not as much as originally thought as Stefan Chrichton stepped up the plate – I mean the mound – and converted all five of his save opportunities. He’s more of a groundball pitcher than a strikeout guy and will have some competition for the closer role in 2021 with the addition of Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard, both veterans who should make the bullpen better, but as mentioned, are around the age where a decline could happen. If healthy, Kevin Ginkel has great stuff and I don’t believe his 6.75 ERA in 2020. He will be a lot better in 2021 if given the opportunity. Speaking of not believing ERA’s Keury Mella had a 1.8 ERA in 2020 but that’s what a 10 inning sample size does. Nevertheless, he’s a solid option while Travis Bergen, a former Giant, is a good looking lefty with a nice curve and low 90’s heat. If there’s one guy who I’d pick for a breakout year it’s Taylor Widener, who throws heat and has strikeout stuff but only 20 innings of big league experience.

Overall, this pen has some nice options but it’s also a bit lacking in definite shutdown arms unless you count Clippard and Soria, who are veterans that should be past their primes. Those signings are huge though, especially after losing not only Bradley, buit Junior Guerra as well. The D-Backs did well to replace them with some recognizable names. Overall, I’m going to give this bullpen a C.

So, that’s it for the Diamondbacks, who are clearly in line for a rough 2020 barring lots of good luck and perhaps a few miracles. However, like most teams, in a best case scenario, this team could be excellent. D-Backs fans should right about now be dreaming of Zac Gallen building off his great 2020, MadBum rebounding with his fastball back in 90’s and guys like Marte and Escobar crushing 30+ home runs with ease. If everything goes perfectly, this team could surprise. But the most likely scenario in a division with the insane looking Dodgers and Padres is a fight for 3rd or 4th place. I’m going to give the D-Backs as an overall team a C+.