First, let’s do a temperature check on where we’re at after a week of games.  There was excitement as the Nationals and Yankees prepared to open the season.  Optimism that they’d be able to pull it off.   Then, a few hours before first pitch, word breaks that Juan Soto has tested positive for COVID-19.  Optimism turned to concern, for Soto, and for the viability of a baseball season during a pandemic. 

Still, opening night went off without a hitch for the most part.  We had some players wearing masks, air high-fives, a handful of players out in the stands, piped in crowd noises and cardboard cut-outs of fans behind home plate.  Different, but for now, the new normal and it worked.

On Friday the rest of baseball got underway and we were off and running.  At least, until MLB tripped up just a few days later after reports of a few Miami Marlins players testing positive for COVID.  What started as a few, turned into half of the team within 24 hours and the Marlins were shut down until they could get the situation under control.  Now, when one team goes down, there is a domino effect.  Of course the team the Marlins were just playing needs to get tested and have their games postponed.  The teams that those teams were supposed to play can’t get in there and before you know it, one team impacts at least 3 others.  In this case, the Phillies, Yankees and Blue Jays. 

What could doom this season is multiple outbreaks at the same time and worry came down this weekend when 2 Cardinals players tested positive.  Could the Cardinals be the next team to have an outbreak?  It appears that it is confined to 3 players, but you still have to test the team they were just playing, the Twins, and while awaiting test results the Cardinals can’t play the scheduled series vs the Brewers.  As long it stays confined they can get back at it early next week.

But all of this then brings into question the legitimacy of the season.  If all teams can’t play 60 games, if teams can’t field a competitive squad, or an outbreaks causes the league to pause for 2 or so weeks and 60 games turns into 45 then what?  We already have some unusual rules in play – runners starting on 2nd base if the game goes into extras, 7 inning games for doubleheaders, 16 teams making the playoffs – which essentially means all teams that can be .500 by the end of the year will get in. 

Ultimately this season could be remembered for just being a huge mess.  Whoever wins the title will be looked at more like the winner of the NCAA Tournament than the winner of the World Series.  Awards like MVP, Cy Young, ROTY could be questioned as well.

What could turn all of that around is what actually happens on the field, so let’s take a look at that…

As of publication the American league looks about right – The Yankees, Twins and Astros all lead their divisions.  Tampa and Cleveland are next in line, and you’ve got the Orioles at 3-3, Mariners at 4-4 and Tigers at 5-3.  In the national league the Braves pace the east at 5-3, Cubs lead the Central with 5-2 and the Padres hold the lead in the west at 6-2.  Getting off to a quick start is imperative this season.  If the Mariners, Tigers, Padres and 4-2 Rockies can play .500 ball the rest of the way they’ll be in the playoffs and have a shot.  That’s great for them, but not great for baseball.  Nothing would add taint to the season like a Tigers and Padres World Series…sorry Detroit and San Diego fans.  Baseball needs the Yankees or the Dodgers in the World Series this year in the worst way.  The one thing that would save the legitimacy of the season would be for a runaway Yankee or Dodger team to go something like 50-10 or 45-15 and win the World Series.  Fans and talking heads could agree that they were the undisputed best team and would have been the best bet to win in a 162 game season. 

We’ve seen some players get out to some scorching hot starts; Seattle Rookie Kyle Lewis has an OBP of .500 and is 15/33 with 2 homers and 8 RBI through the first week.  Dansby Swanson down in Atlanta is tied for the major league lead in RBI with 11 and his hitting .387.  At 40, Nelson Cruz is enjoying a fantastic start to the season with 3 home runs and 11 RBI.  Tommy Pham already has 5 steals.  3 players already have 4 home runs, I could give you 100 guesses and you probably wouldn’t be able to name 1 of them, Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays, Colin Moran from Pittsburgh and Christian Vazquez with Boston.  In fact, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Nolan Arenado and JD Martinez still haven’t hit their first yet.  On opening day, Kyle Hendricks threw a complete game shut out, which could be the only one we’ll see all year with how most pitchers are being handled.  Gerrit Cole has won both of his starts as he begins his Yankee career and Shane Bieber might just mow down everyone this year, he’s 2-0 with 27ks with 14 innings and an 0.00 ERA and 0.57 WHIP. 

We’re also going to see an incredible number of high profile rookies make their debut.  In the last week Nate Pearson, Nick Madrigal and Daulton Varshow got the call from their clubs.  Rookies will be in abundance this season, and that’s a great thing.  Ultimately what will save baseball will be the performance on the field.  This year more than ever we need a Kyle Lewis to tear up baseball, we need Shane Bieber to go 12-0 and strike out over 100 batters, we need no-hitters and perfect games, we need 4 homer, 5 homer and 6 homer weeks by players.  With all of the craziness and all of the distractions, there will be players who are laser focused and capitalize.  That is what baseball needs, that is what could save the season.