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Dodgers Clinch NL West - But Can They Win It All This Time?

For the 8th consecutive season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are National League West Champions. Unfortunately, despite this amazing level of success, the team has was zero World Series Championships during that run. The last time the Dodgers won a World Series was in 1988, led by an elite pitching staff with names like Orel Hershiser, Tim Belcher, and Fernando Valenzuela. Unbelievably, however, that team hit less home runs than the 2020 Dodgers. Why is that unbelievable? Of course, it’s because the 2020 Dodgers haven’t even played 60 games yet while the 1988 Dodgers played a full 162 game schedule. That is how ridiculously potent this 2020 team is. They are, almost literally, an All Star Team.

The question then is, will this be the year for the Dodgers? Can they finally get over the hump and bring a ring back to Los Angeles? While no one can be blamed for picking the Dodgers to win it all, there is actually a much tougher road to the Championship this year than any of the previous seven. With expanded playoffs and 16 teams getting in as opposed to the normal 10, there will be more teams to get through. Furthermore, with the first series being only a best of 3 instead of a best of 7 or even a best of 5, any team can have a couple of nice pitching performances with some timely hitting and possibly a little luck and take out the Dodgers in the first round.

Nevertheless, assuming the Dodgers make it through the first round unscathed, this team has everything a team would need to go all the way. Mookie Betts is on fire, Clayton Kershaw is pitching like he’s in his absolute prime, Corey Seager is fully healthy and contributing every day, and their rotation has been stable thanks to youngsters like Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, who have both stepped it up after the loss of David Price, who opted out, and Alex Wood, who was injured. Still, no one can blame a Dodgers fan who is worried about this team, thinking about the past seven seasons where the Dodgers were not the last team standing. Going through each of those years, let’s take a look at what specifically happened to prevent the Dodgers from winning it all.

2013

In 2013, led by Don Mattingly, the Dodgers were 92-70, easily winning the National League West. They suffered a tremendous blow on the last day of the season when Matt Kemp injured his ankle and had to sit out the playoffs. Andre Ethier was also injured and could only pinch hit. However, the Dodgers were able to get past the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, thanks in part to a great pitching performance by Clayton Kershaw in Game 1.

In the NLCS, however, the Cardinals proved too much for Los Angeles. Game 1 was a nail biter that ended in extra innings after Kenley Jansen gave up an RBI single to Carlos Beltran in the bottom of the 13th. In Game 2, Kershaw was fantastic again, but the offense stalled and the Dodgers lost 1-0.

Then, it was discovered that Hanley Ramirez had a broken rib after a hit by pitch in Game 1. He sat out Game 3, which was a Dodgers victory. He tried to play in anyway in Game 4, but struck out 3 times and was in noticeable pain. They lost 4-2. On the brink of elimination, the Dodgers were able to pick up a win in Game 5, but lost Game 6 after Kershaw gave up 7 runs and 10 hits in four innings.

Reasons the Dodgers lost in 2013:

  • Key injuries occurred just before or during the playoffs

  • The offense did not step it up when they needed to

  • Clayton Kershaw struggled in a win-or-go-home game.

2014

Don Mattingly returned as the Dodgers manager in 2014. The 2014 Dodgers were even better than in 2013, winning 94 games and taking the division by 6 games over the Giants. In the first round of the playoffs, they were matched up with the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that eliminated them in 2013.

In Game 1, the Dodgers seemed to be in command with a 6-1 lead. Kershaw was having a fantastic game through 6 innings, only allowing two hits. However, in the 7th, the wheels came off. Kershaw gave up hit after hit as the Cardinals chipped away at the lead. Even after allowing 5 hits, including a Jon Jay RBI single to cut the lead to 2 runs, Mattingly left Kershaw in the game to face Matt Carpenter. Carpenter doubled, clearing the bases, and giving the Cardinals the lead. Not long afterwards, a three run home run by Matt Holliday off Pedro Baez put the game away.

The Dodgers would come back to win Game 2 despite some bullpen troubles, but could only muster 1 run in Game 3 against John Lackey. The bullpen faltered again and the Dodgers lost the game 3-1. In Game 4, the Dodgers, once again led by Kershaw, took an early lead. But once again, Kershaw started to struggle in the 7th, put men on base, and was left in too long. This time, he gave up a three run home run to Matt Adams, which was all the Cardinals needed. They won the game and the series.

Reason the Dodgers lost in 2014:

  • The offense did not step it up when they needed to

  • Poor Bullpen Performance

  • Leaving in Clayton Kershaw too long

2015

In 2015, the Dodgers finished with a 92-70 record just like they did in 2013. Mattingly was back to try once again to bring a ring to Los Angeles. This time, in a change from 2014, the Dodgers faced off against the New York Mets in NLDS. What did not change, however, was the final result. The Dodgers once again could not get out of the first round of the playoffs.

In Game 1, despite a good performance from Kershaw, Jacob DeGrom struck out 13 batters and completely baffled the Dodger hitters. The Mets won by a final score of 3-1. Although the Dodgers did come back to win Game 2, they lost Chase Utley for Games 3 and 4 due to a suspension after a hard slide into second, injuring Ruben Tejada.

In Game 3 at Citi Field, the Dodgers pitching imploded, as Brett Anderson gave up bases-clearing double to Curtis Granderson and a home run to Travis d’Arnaud. The Bullpen was not much better and the Dodgers ended up losing 13-7. In Game 4, the Dodgers were able to win behind a strong performance from Kershaw. Nevertheless, the Mets, behind Jacob DeGrom again, beat the Dodgers in Game 5 thanks to some heroics by Daniel Murphy, who homered off Greinke to give the Mets a 3-2 lead, which held through the game.

Reasons the Dodgers lost in 2015:

  • Poor offense (18 runs in 5 games)

  • Poor Bullpen Performance

  • Poor Sportsmanship Leading to a Suspension

2016

In 2016, the Dodgers were 91-71, still good enough to win the West over the Giants, who completely fell apart in the second half after having the best record in baseball at the All Star Break. Don Mattingly was shown the door after 2015 and Dave Roberts was now at the helm for the Dodgers.

This year, the Dodgers were successful in the NLDS, beating the Washington Nationals in a hard fought series that lasted all five games. They moved on to the NLCS to face the Chicago Cubs, who got to the Dodgers right away in Game 1. Kenta Maeda gave up 3 runs in the first 2 innings and although the Dodgers came back to tie it, Joe Blanton gave up a grand slam to Miguel Montero in the 8th inning along with a solo shot by Dexter Fowler. The Cubs won 8-4.

In Game 2, Clayton Kershaw dazzled with seven shutout innings and the Dodgers were able to win 1-0, despite an amazing performance of his own by the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. in Game 3, it was Rich Hill who dominated and the Dodgers won again 6-0. Up 2-1 in the series and in the drivers seat, it looked like the Dodgers were ready to punch their ticket to the World Series.

It all began to unravel in Game 4 as the Cubs took out the Dodgers and youngster Julio Urias in blowout fashion 10-2 thanks to a great pitching performance by John Lackey and home runs by Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell. In Game 5, Joe Blanton gave up a key home run out of the bullpen (Addison Russell again), and the Cubs won 8-4.

In Game 6, Clayton Kershaw had another chance to prove that he could bring it in an Elimination Game. Once again, he failed as the Cubs jumped on the board with 2 in the bottom of the 1st and another in the 2nd. By the 5th, they had extended the lead to 5-0. The Dodgers had no answers offensively as Kyle Hendricks completely shut them down. The Cubs won the game and the series.

Reasons the Dodgers lost in 2016:

  • Kershaw’s struggles in Elimination Games

  • Poor Offense (Outscored 31-17. Just 17 runs in 6 games.)

  • Poor Bullpen Performance

2017

Although from 2013-2016, the Dodgers were clearly an elite team, 2017 was the year the Dodgers looked like absolute can’t-miss champions. They won 104 games in the regular season and went in the playoffs full of confidence, led by offensive studs like Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal and Corey Seager. Their pitching was strong with Kershaw, Ryu, Maeda and an elite closer in Kenley Jansen. What could possibly go wrong in 2017?

Indeed, the team looked unstoppable, tearing through the playoffs and finishing off the Cubs by a score of 11-1 in Game 5 of the NLCS, winning it 4 games to 1. They would face up against the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Series. It was a wild Fall Classic, going the full 7 games. Both teams scored 34 runs throughout the 7 Game Series, with the Astros beating the Dodgers 5-1 in Game 7 after chasing starter Yu Darvish. Reports followed that Darvish was tipping his pitches.

More than 2 years later, however, the baseball world was shaken by reports that the 2017 Houston Astros had been stealing signs using an elaborate system involving a monitor, camera and banging trash cans. This called into question the legitimacy of their 2017 title. Since it’s unclear what kind of unfair advantage they held in the World Series, I’m not going to critique the Dodgers for this loss. However, at the end of the day, the Dodgers were still unable to win it all in 2017.

2018

In 2018, the Dodgers once again won their division with a 92-71 record and once again made it all the way to the World Series. Their opponent this time was the Boston Red Sox. With Kershaw on the mound, The Red Sox struck in the first inning from timely hitting by Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi and J.D. Martinez. Kershaw was not at his sharpest and the Dodgers lost 8-4.

There were lots of questions regarding Dave Roberts’ decisions including the starting lineup which had struggling guys like Brian Dozier and Kike Hernandez over Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger because of righty vs. lefty matchups. He also made some questionable bullpen decisions such as going with Alex Wood in the 7th over the more obvious Pedro Baez. Wood promptly gave up a home run to Edurado Nunez.

In Game 2, it was Hun Jin Ryu for the Dodgers against David Price of the Red Sox. The Dodgers had a 2-1 lead in the 5th, but the Red Sox loaded the bases, chasing Ryu, and reliever Ryan Madson walked in the tying run. J.D. Martinez then drove in two more with a single.  The Dodgers lost 4-2. Dodgers fans everywhere asked the question, “Why Madson?”

After loading the bases, it made sense to remove Ryu. After all, the Dodgers had been burned time and time again by leaving in their starters too long. However, Pedro Baez once again seemed like the more obvious option. Perhaps Roberts was saving him for later, but the critical moment seemed to be then and there in the 5th inning with the bases loaded.

Roberts seemed to have a certain order he liked to bring in his relievers instead of basing it on how dire the situation was. The situation called for one of the strongest arms in the bullpen. It’s understandable that he did not want to bring in his closer in the 5th inning, but with the bases loaded, Baez would’ve a better option than Madson.

The Dodgers won Game 3 behind a strong performance by Alex Wood. However, in Game 4, Bullpen Management issues struck again. Rich Hill threw 6 innings of shutout baseball and the Dodgers took a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the 6th thanks to a 3-run bomb by Yasiel Puig. In the top of the seventh, after walking a batter then striking out Nunez, Dave Roberts surprisingly went to the bullpen. He was heavily criticized for his decision to bring in another lefty, Scott Alexander, who proceeded to walk the first batter he faced. Two batters later, Ryan Madson served up a three-run homer to pinch hitter Mitch Moreland. The Dodgers lost the game 9-6.

In Game 5, an Elimination Game, it was Clayton Kershaw who took the mound with yet another opportunity to show what he could do in such a game. He allowed a 2-run home run to Steve Pearce in the top of the 1st inning. Although he settled down after that, the Dodgers offense struggled against David Price. Price pitched into the eighth, allowing only one run on three hits and two walks while striking out five.  The Red Sox continued to add on against the Bullpen and won the game 5-1 and the 2018 World Series 4 games to 1.

Reasons the Dodgers lost in 2018:

  • Questionable Managerial Decisions

  • Kershaw’s Continued Postseason Struggles (0-2 in the WS with a 7.36 ERA)

  • Poor Offense (16 Runs in 5 Games)

2019

In 2019, the Los Angeles Dodgers looked as strong as ever. On September 4, the Dodgers broke the NL record for most home runs in a season with their 250th homer. They clinched the division on September 10th, the earliest in their history and finished the season with an incredible 106-56 record, led once again by Dave Roberts. Nevertheless, despite the potency of this club, the Dodgers did not escape the first round of the playoffs.

In 2019, their opponent in the NLDS was eventual World Champion Washington Nationals. They came out of the gate on fire behind Walker Buehler, defeating the Nats by a score of 6-0 in Game 1. In Game 2, Clayton Kershaw took the hill for the Dodgers and quickly gave up 3 runs over the first 2 innings. In similar fashion to his 2018 Game 5 start, he settled down, but it was too late. Stephen Strasburg dominated the Dodgers lineup and the Nationals evened up the series, winning Game 2 by a score of 4-2.

In Game 3, the Dodger bats came alive and they won 10-4 behind a strong performance from Ryu. However, they were silenced again in Game 4 by Max Scherzer as the Nationals won 6-1, keeping pace with the mighty Dodgers.

In the final and dramatic Game 5, the Dodgers jumped all over Stephen Strasburg to take a 3-0 lead early. For the Dodgers, Walker Buehler looked strong, allowing only 1 run and putting the Dodgers in a position to take the series. Shockingly, with 2 outs in the 7th and the Nationals threatening, Dave Roberts brought in Clayton Kershaw - a man who is not only accustomed to starting games, but one who has struggled time and time again in Elimination Playoff games. The Dodgers needed only 7 outs and had a fully rested bullpen.

Neverthless, he had a lefty vs lefty matchup and Kershaw succeeded by striking out Adam Eaton and getting out of the inning. Although the move was questionable and certainly scary for Dodger fans, it seemed to work out. Until it didn’t - Roberts unbelievably stuck with Kershaw into the 8th inning with superstar Anthony Rendon coming up. Rendon hit a home run to bring the Nationals within a run.

The next batter was another bonified superstar in Juan Soto. Once again, Roberts stuck with Kershaw. Once again, the ball left the park. The game was tied. The bullpen arms he had at his disposal to get 6 outs consisted of Joe Kelly, Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, Dustin May, Adam Kolarek - who by the way dominated Soto, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling.

The game stayed tied through 9 and went into extra innings. In the 10th, Joe Kelly gave up a grand slam to Howie Kendrick. The Dodgers bats went down 1-2-3 in the bottom half and the Nationals moved on while the Dodgers once again, went home without a World Series ring.

Reasons the Dodgers lost in 2019:

  • Kershaw’s Continued Struggles in the Postseason

  • Questionable Bullpen Management

  • Failure of the offense to come through in key moments

Conclusion

Looking at some of the pitfalls that prevented the Dodgers from winning a World Series from 2013-2019, tit’s hard to predict which of them may come back to be an issue for the Dodgers again in 2020. One of them that I think will not is the offense, which somehow is even stronger in 2020 than in any of those previous years. Now, Mookie Betts, who homered in the 2018 World Series against the Dodgers, is with LA and playing like an absolute machine. Also, Injuries shouldn’t be a major factor as most Dodgers are only dealing with minor day-to-day type situations and, even if they do lose a player or two, they are deeper than ever before.

Worrisome aspects of their game include their bullpen, which can be unpredictable. In September so far, they have the league’s fifth-worst ERA (4.44) for the month. However, for the season, the LA bullpen has been the best in the league with a 2.86 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 7.1% walk rate, 1.07 WHIP.  The bullpen is certainly not bad, but even if used correctly, is not unhittable. Their closer, Kenley Jansen, for example, had allowed six earned runs (nine total) in 6.2 innings this month and has blown a save.

The biggest worry, however, has to be Dave Roberts himself. Although he is without a doubt a smart baseball mind, many of his bullpen and lineup decisions have baffling. When baffling decisions work out, a manager is called a genius. When they don’t, he’s called a moron. Unfortunately for Roberts, it has usually been the latter. It is my opinion that this Dodgers team has a better chance to win it all than any other - they’ve done everything possible with that roster to put a Championship team on the field. All Roberts has to do is let them bring it home.

A few key lessons the Dodgers may have learned over the past 8 years thats Roberts may want to keep in mind are:

  • Kershaw should not come out of the bullpen

  • If possible, avoid starting Kershaw in an Elimination Game

  • In critical moments, don’t bring in a reliever because he’s next on the list - bring in the best guy to get out of the jam

  • Don’t bench your superstars because they stand in the wrong batters box when their replacement is hitting under .200

  • If a starter is dealing, let him deal

Simply put, as the MLB slogan goes, let the kids play. Make the obvious moves and don’t try to be “cute.” This is a championship team. Let them win a championship. If you want one.