Continuing 30 clubs in 30 days, it’s time to take a look at the Baltimore Orioles who, whether you remember or not, were pretty good for a while in 2020.  They were in a Wild Card chase for a while and did not finish in last place as most expected. The O’s eventually finished with a 25-35 record but they showed significant progress and talent within the organization.   Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a lot of action this offseason for the Orioles as far as adding immediate help and so they don’t appear to be ready yet to seriously compete.  Instead, they are continuing to build their farm system through trades such as sending Alex Cobb to the Angels for Jahmai Jones and hope for young talent like Adley Rutschman and Heston Kjerstad to come along at the right time, which likely isn’t 2021, and that’s when the Orioles hope to be ready to compete.

Additions

• Freddy Galvis

• Yolmer Sanchez

• Felix Hernandez (Minors)

• Matt Harvey (Minors)

• Wade LeBlanc (Minors)

• Dusten Knight (Minors)

Nevertheless, there are some interesting signings and none more recognizable than the great Felix Hernandez, who reportedly joined the Orioles on a minor league deal to try to make the team and pad those career stats a little more and give him a stronger shot at the Hall of Fame.  While I understand that kind of sounds selfish in a way, it’s actually a realistic move for a guy with over 2500 career strikeouts, 6 All Stars, a Cy Young Award but only 169 career wins.  He hasn’t been great for a while but he’s only 34 years old and if he could get a little closer to 200 wins, he could get more consideration. His velocity is down but he’ll be trying to pitch smarter, working the corners and working in breaking stuff.  I’ll definitely be rooting for King Felix to have a nice year in Baltimore.

The O’s also signed Matt Harvey to a Minor League Deal, who rose to fame with the Mets as an elite All-Star talent.  His last productive year was 2018 with the Reds and since then, he’s pitched poorly for the Angels in 2019 and the Royals in 2020.  Wade LeBlanc was re-signed on a Minor League Deal after an 8.06 ERA in 8 starts last season.  He was a Minor League Deal for 2020 as well and made the team so he’ll try to do the same in Spring Training this year.  Dusten Knight is a former Giants prospect who had a nice minor league career but never got a shot in San Francisco.  He was 26-11 with a 3.06 ERA and a 10.2 strikeout per nine ratio.  I have no idea why the Giants never liked him.  Other than that, the only serious signing was Freddy Galvis, who has struggled offensively for the past couple seasons but has a great glove and some power.  He’s not going to be a big difference maker but at least they signed some one relatively young and talented to a big league deal.

Lineup

1.       Austin Hays CF

2.       D.J. Stewart RF

3.       Anthony Santander LF

4.       Trey Mancini DH

5.       Sisco/Severino C

6.       Ryan Mountcastle 1B

7.       Freddy Galvis SS

8.       Rio Ruiz 3B

9.       Yolmer Sanchez 2B

Running through the lineup, Austin Hays is a solid defender with a great arm and decent bat that lacks power.  He can run like the wind though despite just 2 stolen bases in 2020.  D.J. Stewart does have power and hit 7 bombs in just 88 at bats last year although he had only 10 hits that weren’t home runs.  He does know how to work a walk with a .355 on-base despite a .193 average.  Next is Anthony Santander, who has still never played over 100 games in a season.  If he can ever get a full season in, he has 30+ home run power.  Trey Mancini is the best player on the team in my opinion and after beating cancer he’ll be back in that lineup.  He hit 35 home runs in 2019 with a .291 average and .364 on-base-percentage.  He is one of the few seriously great looking big-league hitters in this lineup.

Chance Sisco is a low-average high-on-base type who can work the count and get on base.  He doesn’t have a lot of power though.  Right-handed hitter Pedro Severino could also get plenty of starts against lefties and he doesn’t offer much more than Sisco offensively.  Both are just keeping the position warm for 2019 first overall pick, Adley Rutschman, who had ridiculous stats at Oregon State and I’m talking about hitting over .400 with power.  He’s one of the guys the Orioles are waiting on to help this team compete in the near future.

Ryan Mountcastle had a fantastic rookie season with a .333 batting average and 5 home runs in just 126 at bats.   He could be a .300 hitter over a full season with at least 25 home runs.  Freddy Galvis brings a nice glove and some pop to shortstop.  Rio Ruiz had just a .286 on-base last season and struggles with breaking stuff.  His defense can be questionable and times but he also makes some spectacular plays.  Ruiz is obviously not a long-term solution at third base.  Richie Martin and Pat Valaika are solid enough infield backups but neither have a ton of upside.  Finally, Yolmer Sanchez is a glove-first guy who won a Gold Glove in 2019.  He is not going to be great offensively over the long haul but did go 5 for 16 with a home run last year. 

I should also note that Chris Davis is still on the team but you might as well send me up there to hit.  All due respect to a guy once hit 53 home runs in a season, he just can’t hit anymore.  However, if a miracle happens and he figures something out, he could get some time as well.  Cedric Mullins is a speedester and great defender available as well but he’s also fairly light hitting. Overall, this lineup has some power threats with Stewart, Mancini, Mountcastle and Santander.  However, it does feel like it lacks thump when compared to some of the other teams in the league.  There are some good patient hitters who can get on base, but overall it will definitely will be a lot better in a couple years when some of these prospects are ready.  For now, this lineup gets a C-.

Rotation:

1.       John Means

2.       Keegan Akin

3.       Dean Kremer

4.       Jorge Lopez

5.       Wade LeBlanc

Felix Hernandez

Matt Harvey

Bruce Zimmerman

Jumping into the rotation, 27 year old John Means was great in 2019 but last season doubled his allowed home run rate and showed an increase in ERA.  Of course, it’s a relatively small sample with the shortened season and he also showed an increased velocity and better strikeout ratio.  He should be fine in 2021.  Keegan Akin is one of the young future talents on this team that actually should be about ready for a full big league season in 2021.  He struck out 35 in 26 and just needs to improve his efficiency and control.  The stuff is there and he could be in line for a breakthrough season.  Dean Kremer, one of the returns in the Manny Machado deal, is similar with great strikeout stuff but his control problems are even more serious.  He walked 12 in just over 18 innings last season.  He did show gradual improvement in his walk rate over his Minor League career so it may just be a question of settling in and gaining confidence. 

Jorge Lopez is a former Royal who was once a pretty big prospect but just gives up too much hard contact too often.  He’s got a career 9-17 record with an ERA over 6.  From this point forward, any of these pitchers could also end up in the bullpen or not on the team at all.  LeBlanc, Hernandez and Harvey are all big league veterans who will fight in Spring Training over a spot in the rotation.  They all have to prove that they’re not washed up and popular opinion is they probably each are.  Best case one of them rises to the occasion and gives the Orioles a decent season with an ERA around 4.5 and about 10-12 wins.  Bruce Zimmerman is a prospect who might get a crack at the rotation as well.  In 2019 he threw 2 shutouts and had a 3.21 ERA in 24 Minor League Starts.  All that said, this rotation could potentially have a decent ceiling if Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer both step it up and have a big seasons in a similar way to what we saw with the Marlins in 2020 with their young starters.  However, even if that happens, the 4 and 5 spots are iffy.  One or more of those veterans will have to stay healthy and effective while a prospect like Zimmerman will have to also be good.  There’s just a lot that has to go right for this rotation to be consistently good against the competition they’ll be facing.  I’m going to give to this rotation a D+.

Bullpen

• Hunter Harvey

• Thomas Eshelman

• Cesar Valdez

• Tanner Scott

• Cole Sluser

• Paul Fry

• Shawn Armstrong

• Dillon Tate

• Travis Lakins Sr.

• Evan Phillips

• Ashton Goudeau

The bullpen features first round pick Hunter Harvey, who took much longer than expected to get through the Minors but finally made in 2019 and looked good in 6 innings, allowing just a run and striking out 11.  He has dealt with a lot of injury issues and last season just pitched 8 2/3rds allowing 2 home runs, 2 walks and a hit by pitch with a 4.15 ERA.  He’s got 97 MPH heat and good breaking stuff but he hasn’t had a chance to prove what he can do because he’s always hurt.  Tanner Scott is another decent option and he also has a hard fastball with a nasty slider but has some control problems.  Cesar Valdez you might remember from the Diamondbacks way back in 2010.  He’s a journeyman who the Orioles snagged from the Mexican League and he pitched well in 14 innings last season but I don’t really believe that sample and doubt he’ll be that great over a full season but he does seem to keep hitters off balance and limit hard contact.  Dillon Tate was a 4th overall pick but never showed enough for a team to give him a chance as a starter.  He also pitched well last year so there’s some one to keep an eye on.  Paul Fry is a solid lefty that they have at their disposal and he was filthy last season with 29 strikouts in 22 innings.   Other than that, there’s lots of youngsters still developing and trying to prove they belong.  Some of those starters who don’t make the rotation could also help out in the pen.  There’s definitely a lack of consistency and convincing sample sizes.  There’s a also a lack in a definite shutdown closer until Hunter Harvey can prove he is not only good but can stay on the field.  Overall, not super-impressed with this pen but there are some decent options that will be able to hold a few games but will also probably blow more than a few as well. I’m going to gives this bullpen a D only because I like Paul Fry and Tanner Scott despite his control issues. 

So, there you have it – the Orioles simply rebuilding and 2021 isn’t the year for them in my opinion unless a whole bunch of young prospects make the roster but that’s very unlikely as too many are just barely getting started in their Minor League Careers.  The bullpen lacks reliable options, the rotation is super shaky and the lineup is the best part of this team, although it can use some upgrades as well.  There is enough talent and upside where if everything comes together this team could hang in there like they did in 2020 but sooner or later I think the difference in overall Major League talent on this team as compared to teams like the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays will be made evident in the standings.  I’m going to this team a D+.