Ever since The Pittsburgh Pirates finished 98-64 in 2015, they have slowly been creeping down the standings until hitting rock bottom in 2019 and again in 2020.  There might be a light at the end of this dark tunnel though, as the Pirates hired a new front office to try to get this team back on track.  They have a few legit talents like Ke’Bryan Hayes and a ton of solid young prospects on the way, many of which they acquired by trading away some big names like Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon this offseason.  But this process is just beginning, and the Pirates are probably not going to be ready to seriously compete for a few years.  They need to keep rebuilding, keep growing their system and not start trading away their best prospects just because they go on a 5-game winning streak in June. 

Arrivals

• SP Luis Oviedo (Trade/Mets)

• RP Jose Soriano (Rule 5)

• SP Tyler Anderson (FA/Giants)

• RP David Bednar (Trade/Padres)

• SP Ashton Goudeau (Waivers/Rockies)

• C Michael Perez (Waivers/Tampa Bay)

• SP Wil Crowe (Trade/Nationals)

• RP Chasen Shreve (Minors)

• 3B Todd Frazier (Minors)

• OF Brian Goodwin (Minors)

• C Tony Wolters (Minors)

• 2B Wilmer Difo (Minors)

• RP Chase De Jong (Minors)

As for the new arrivals that might be impact names in 2021, the Pirates traded for a Rule 5 guy from the Mets in Luis Oviedo, who is only 21 years old.  He started pitching in the Indians organization at 17 in 2016 and was considered a top 10 prospect for Cleveland until some injury issues started hampering his development.  He has a fastball that can hit 98 along with a mix of other pitches including a slider, which could be developed into a strikeout pitch.  Pitcher Jose Soriano, who in 2019 had a 10.1 strikeout ratio and 2.51 ERA in 18 starts in Single A, was acquired as the first overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft, but he’ll start the season on the IL after undoing Tommy John last year.  This will give the Pirates more roster flexibility until he is ready.

Tyler Anderson impressed last year with the Giants, keeping contact soft for the most part, finishing the year with a 4.37 ERA.  David Bednar was the big Major League-ready acquisition from San Diego in the Musgrove deal.  This is some one who lit up the minor leagues and hasn’t really had a big Major League sample yet.  In 4 Minor League seasons, his ERA was never over 3 and he had an insane strikeout rate every season including 13.3 in 2019.  He has only pitched 17 big-league innings and struck out 19 while walking 7.  His ERA is inflated at 6.75 because he’s given up 4 home runs, but over a full sample this guy could be a killer in that bullpen.

Ashton Goudeau is another impressive arm that dominated Double-A in 2019, but had little success in the Major Leagues in a tiny sample of 8 innings.  The Rockies designated him for assignment and the Pirates snagged him up.  Michael Perez is a great defensive catcher they picked up on waivers as well.  Wil Crowe was a key acquisition in the Josh Bell deal to help keep the rotation reasonably stable during this rebuilding period.  He’s got good stuff but doesn’t blow any one away and usually had an ERA around 4 during his Minor League Career.  At 26, he may or may not be a big part of the Pirates future.  If he pitches well in 2021, he could get shipped off for younger prospects.

Those moves alone make this for a soild offseason for the Bucs, but when you also consider these familiar big league names that they landed in Minor League deals, it looks even better.  Chasen Shreve is a lefty who was solid with the Mets last year out of the pen and they even signed the Toddfather, the former All Star who needs no introduction.  He had to settle for a Minor League Deal after a rough 2020, but if he’s got something left in the tank, this could be a very nice move for Pittsburgh and bring on board a former star name for fans to watch at PNC Park in 2021. 

Lineup

1.       Adam Frazier 2B

2.       Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B

3.       Moran/Evans/Frazier 1B

4.       Bryan Reynolds LF

5.       Gregory Polanco RF

6.       Alford/Tucker CF

7.       Jacob Stallings C

8.       Newman/Gonzalez SS

Here’s a look at the projected regulars for the 2021 Pirates and it’s not as bad as you might think.  Adam Frazier at second base is a solid defender and makes great contact, with just 35 strikeouts in 230 plate appearances last year.  Over a full season, he’ll hit around .275 with 10+ home runs.  Ke’Bryan Hayes burst onto the scene in 2020, posting a .376/.442/.682 slash line with 5 home runs in just 24 games.  He looks like a potential superstar in the making and, by the way, he’s already 4 for 8 with 2 doubles and a triple in Spring Training.  Colin Moran also showed big pop last season, with 10 bombs in just 178 at bats.  The Pirates hope this is a sign of some newfound power and not a freak 2020 thing.  Phillip Evans is reportedly in line to platoon with him even though he played just one game at first base last year.  Evans tore up 2020 in a small sample, going 14 for 39 with a home run.  Keep an eye on Todd Frazier too, who could get some starts at first if he makes the team.

Bryan Reynolds had a tough season, but past history including his minor league career and a terrible 2020 BABIP indicate a bounce-back year in 2021.  Normally, he’s more than solid and should hit close to if not over .300 with a .350 on-base this season.  Polanco has been a concern for a while, striking out more every season as he struggles to get back to the solid player he was around 2015.  His trade value isn’t much at this point, so he’ll probably hit the Free Agent market after the season as the Pirates likely won’t pick up his options they granted him with a big extension 5 years ago.  The centerfield spot isn’t fully guaranteed yet.  Anthony Alford can fly but has just a .169 career average.  He has raw power and was a top prospect with the Jays but hasn’t shown much at the big-league level.  First round pick Cole Tucker is another candidate, and he hasn’t really shown much either.  He has speed but only one career stolen base and a .215 average with 3 home runs in 256 at bats. 

Jacob Stallings is a great defensive catcher and pitch framer and that’s where his main value lies.  At he plate, he is patient and can work a walk but otherwise very average with little power.  Still, a great defensive catcher who can work with pitchers well, frame pitches and call a good game is vital.  Kevin Newman is a high contact hitter who can also back up some of the other infield positions while Erik Gonzalez should also get plenty of starts at short.  Gonzalez had a 44% hard-hit rate in 2020, but hit too many groundballs leading to a .227 average.  However, he has gold-glove potential in the field.

Overall, this lineup has more to offer than one might think, but lacks power, especially in the outfield.  Polanco, Alford and Tucker have all failed to contribute as much as expected and the same can be said for Reynolds last year, although I expect him to bounce back in ’21.  There is a lack of two-way players as well – some of the guys who can field can’t hit and vice-versa.  The Pirates are rebuilding, however, and considering that, this lineup should do okay scoring runs and keeping games interesting when the pitching does okay.  Overall, I’m giving it a C-.

Rotation

1.       Mitch Keller

2.       Chad Kuhl

3.       Steven Brault

4.       Tyler Anderson

5.       JT Brubaker

6.       Wil Crowe

Cody Ponce

Miguel Yajure

Cody Bolton

This rotation wasn’t going to be too great before the Pirates traded their top two starters.  Now, it’s just going to be a construction of the best 5 in Spring Training out of a huge list of names. Mitch Keller was the Pirates #1 prospect in 2020 but couldn’t find his command.  He walked 18 while striking out 16, still keeping his ERA under 3 somehow.  Over a longer sample, his control problems won’t allow for an ERA that low and he will give up a ton of runs unless he hits his spots with more consistency.  Chad Kuhl is back to 100% after Tommy John and should be okay for the Bucs, but even at his best he’ll have an ERA around 4.5   Tyler Anderson, like I said, was nice for the Giants last year but he’ll have some good starts and some bad ones, ending up with an ERA over 4.

 JT Brubaker looked good with 2020 with a solid sinker and has the stuff of a solid long reliever.  He is perfect for almost any bullpen in baseball.  However, because of the Pirates rotation issues, he could be a starter in ’21.  Wil Crowe has a good shot to make the back end of the rotation to at least get some immediate value from the Josh Bell trade.  Other than that, there are some younger options that could make the rotation if they impress enough in Spring Training.  The reality is this rotation is going to get roughed up often unless 2 or 3 of those youngsters have stunning breakout years, which seems unlikely because the best looking prospects aren’t big league ready yet.  The trades this offseason were necessary, but this rotation really took a hit because of them.  I’m going to give it a D-.

Bullpen

• Richard Rodriguez

• David Bednar

• Chasen Shreve

• Chris Stratton

• Kyle Crick

• Michael Feliz

• Clay Holmes

• Edgar Santana

• Geoff Hartlieb

• Austin Davis

• Blake Cederlind

• Nick Mears

• Tyler Bashlor

• Carson Fulmer

• Sean Poppen

• Luis Oviedo

• Jose Soriano

The bullpen will also be constructed through Spring Training competition, but one guy who should definitely be a key arm out of this pen is Richard Rodriguez.  He was one of MLB’s best relivers last year, with 34 strikeouts in 23 innings.  He has an elite spin rate on a low to mid-90’s fast ball, making it hard to touch.  His slider is also nasty.  Chris Stratton and Kyle Crick are two former Giants who have become very solid bullpen arms for Pittbsurgh.  Michael Feliz had injury issues last year but has shown great stuff in the past with the Astros.  David Bednar I mentioned has a high ceiling and there are a few other flamethrowers in there like Blake Cederlind and Nick Mears, who should get a more extended opportunity in 2021.  There’s a lot of potential in this pen and there should be some good long relief options from the guys who don’t end up in the rotation.  If some of the younger arms end up being legit, this pen could be a strength.  Until they prove themselves, I can’t go too crazy, so for now I’m going to give it a C.

So, that’s it for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who unfortunately, despite an okay lineup and bullpen, will likely struggle to win games without better rotation arms.  Overall, I’m giving them a D+ for the current roster, but this team seems to be on the right track now, building the farm system and not rushing the rebuild.