Entering 2020 last season, the Miami Marlins had a questionable future at best and a bleak present yet they came out of the gates hot and built enough of a cushion to fairly easily make it into the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.  That was despite a Covid-19 outbreak that completely derailed their roster.  And as we get ready for 2021, the Marlins have already made some big moves, maybe none bigger than hiring former Dodgers and Yankees assistant GM Kim Ng as their new General Manager. 

So, what are the chances that the Marlins can repeat their 2020 results in 2021?  I think the general consensus will be that over a 162 game schedule and considering the improvements we’ve seen from the rest of the division this offseason, it’s unlikely the Marlins will be a playoff team again.  But before I officially say that, let’s take a look at this team from top to bottom including some of their newest acquisitions such as former San Francisco Giant prospect Adam Duvall, a much needed power hitter for Miami. 

Additions:

• Adam Duvall

• Anthony Bass

• Adam Cimber

• Ross Detwiler

• Sandy Leon

Duvall made a huge impact after being traded to the Reds, hitting 33 home runs in 2016 and being selected to the All Star Team and Home Run Derby.  He followed that with 31 bombs in 2017 before getting traded to Atlanta in 2018.  Since then, he hasn’t been as potent and even spent most of 2019 in the Minor Leagues where hit 32 home runs, earning a promotion to the Braves as helping them in some big moments.  Between Triple A and the Big Leagues, he actually crushed 42 home runs in 2019 then hit 16 last year in only 190 at bats.  The main downside is that his career batting average is only .233 and he’s not the best all around player.  The Marlins already have a few guys who don’t get on base enough as I’ll talk about.  Still, he brings some much needed power to this Marlins lineup.

Other additions for the Marlins include Anthony Bass, who has been consistently solid over the past 3 seasons with the Cubs, Mariners and Jays, holding an ERA around 3.5.  Last season, he picked up 7 saves while holding opponents to a .189 batting average.  He signed a 2-year deal to pitch out of the Marlins bullpen.  Another bullpen piece will be Adam Cimber, who came over from the Indians for 100 thousand dollars. Although he doesn’t throw especially hard, he can produce groundballs and had a 3.97 ERA last season and 3.89 for his career.

Also the former first round pick Ross Detwiler was signed to Major League Deal.  Although he never really turned out how the Nationals had hoped, he has built a nice 12-year career and had a nice 3.2 ERA with the White Sox last season.  Sandy Leon will also be in camp to try to compete for a job as a backup catcher.  So, the Marlins have really tried to focus on their bullpen this offseason with Bass, Cimber and Detwiler and have now added some definite power with Duvall.

Lineup

1.       Corey Dickerson LF

2.       Starling Marte CF

3.       Jesus Aguilar 1B

4.       Brian Anderson 3B

5.       Adum Duvall RF

6.       Miguel Rojas SS

7.       Jonathan Berti 2B

8.       Jorge Alfaro C

Now to take a look at a potential staring lineup for the Marlins.  Leading off, we have Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately had a bit of a power outage in 2020 with just 7 homers in 210 at bats.  His average exit velocity dropped as well and although he still great defensively, the Marlins would love to see a bounce back year with the bat.  Starling Marte is going to be extra motivated in his last year before free agency and looked amazing in Arizona last year although his power numbers have been down as well.  He still brings defense, great speed and I feel like he’s going to have a big 2021. 

Jesus Aguilar is still trying to repeat his monster 2018 to prove it wasn’t just a one year fluke.  However, he did have a career high batting average in 2020 and drove in 34 runs in just 51 games.  Unlike Marte, he can work a walk and had a .352 on base percentage.  Brian Anderson strikes out a lot but brings 25+ home run power and excellent defense to the table.  And then you have Adam Duvall, sort of a similar player but can potentially bring 35+ home runs to the table. 

Miguel Rojas is a good defender with amazing range at shortstop and hit .304 in 2020 with a .392 OBP.  He’s a smart contact hitter and will occasionally go deep.  Jonathan Berti has supersonic speed on the basepaths and a great eye at the plate.  He gets moved around a lot and if he find a comfort zone somewhere, I think he’s a great asset to have while he’s still young enough to run like he does.  Over a full season, if allowed to, I think he can steal 50 bases.  Finally, Jorge Alfaro could be the primary catcher but really struggled last season, working only 4 walks in 100 plate appearances, and having problems defensively as well.  He could lose the starting job to Chad Wallach. 

Overall, there are definitely some question marks in this lineup.  Corey Dickerson needs to have a little more power than he has lately, and it would be nice if Brian Anderson cuts back on the strikeouts and becomes a little more selective.  What kind of season will Starling Marte have or Jesus Aguilar?  Even newcomer Adam Duvall is not exactly guaranteed to be awesome as I mentioned, he’s been sent down to Triple A as recently as 2019.  Nevertheless, there is elite speed, power, and some on-base ability with guys like Rojas and Aguilar.  It’s certainly not an embarrassing lineup; it’s not just not on-par with some of the others I’ve looked at in the East like the Braves, Phillies and Mets.  I’m going to give this lineup a C. 

Bench

• Garrett Cooper

• Lewin Diaz

• Chad Wallach

• Jazz Chisholm

• Lewis Brinson

• Magneuris Sierra

• Monte Harrison

• Harold Ramirez

 A quick glance at the bench shows some decent options there like Garret Cooper, who had a career year in 2020 with a 34% line drive rate while hitting the ball to all fields.  Dodgers and Padres are showing interest in him so he could be gone by Opening Day.  Lewin Diaz hit 27 home runs in the Minors in 2019 and Monte Harrison is another speedster who could be a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner.  Brinson and Sierra are both solid options as well although neither has really shown the ability to hit big league pitching like the Marlins hoped they would.  Jazz Chisholm is another guy who has shown promise in the Minors but still hasn’t shown it at the MLB level.  All around, it’s an okay bench but due to the lack of success at the MLB level, I’ll give it a C-.

 Rotation

1.       Sandy Alcantara

2.       Sixto Sanchez

3.       Pablo Lopez

4.       Elieser Hernandez

5.       Trevor Rogers

6.       Braxton Garrett

Moving onto the rotation, this is actually a very impressive young group of guys.  Sandy Alcantra can hit 97 MPH and has been improving each year with his strikeout rate.  In seven starts last year, he gave up just 14 runs and ended up with a 3.00 ERA.  Sixto Sanchez is entering his first full season and the sky’s the limit with this guy.  He can get his riding four-seamer up to 100 and is also a great athlete who fields his position well.  He mixes in some other pitches as well to keep hitters off balance.  I expect Sanchez to improve in 2021 and be a major arm in this rotation.  Next is Pablo Lopez, who was super impressive for most of 2020, ending up with 59 strikeouts in 57 innings and a 3.61 ERA.  He has a fantastic changeup with movement, and I predict will be even better in 2021.

Elieser Hernandez has a sick slider and attacks hitters with confidence even though his fastball isn’t as electric as some of the other guys in this rotation.  He has a great strikeout rate and in 6 starts last year he had a 3.16 ERA, striking out 34 and walking just 5.  Finally, there’s Trevor Rogers, a 2017 first round pick who had a 2.9 ERA in 23 starts in the Minor Leagues in 2019.  He was not too impressive in 2020 but still has great strikeout stuff and extraordinarily strong changeup.  There is a good chance he settles down and has a solid 2021.  If any of these guys falter, Braxton Garrett is waiting in the wings and has fantastic strikeout stuff. From top to bottom, this is far from a bad rotation.  There are no Jacob Degroms here but with all the young talent, this rotation has a very high ceiling.  I expect this rotation to keep games close often in 2021.  I’m going to give the Miami Marlins starting rotation a B.

 Bullpen

• Yimi Garcia

• James Hoyt

• Richard Bleier

• Anthony Bass

• Jordon Holloway

• Jeff Brigham

• Daniel Castano

• Ross Detwiler

• Nick Neidert

• Adam Cimber

 Here is the bullpen and I already discussed Bass, Cimber and Detwiler who all bring something to party even though none are exactly elite.  Yimi Garcia is likely your closer and he’s got a great slider and seems to be pretty comfortable in Miami where he gave up just 1 run in 15 innings last year.  James Hoyt is a guy who seems like is always stashed away in Triple A but when he gets a chance at the big league level, he dominates.  He had a 1.23 ERA for Miami last year in limited opportunities.  Richard Bleier is a lefty who was picked up in desperation when half the team had Covid last year and he took full advantage, walking just 4 of the 52 batters he faced with a ground ball rate of 72% and a 2.63 ERA.  So, the Marlins have found some talent and have gone shopping this offseason for more, making their bullpen actually more than decent.  There is a strong likelihood that some of those ERA’s and percentages won’t be so impressive after a 162 game season, but still, I think this bullpen is pretty stable and should be able to help the Marlins win plenty of games in 2021.  All that said, there is a lack of sustained success and for that, I can’t give them too high of a grade.  But based on recent success and the offseason signings, I’m going to give this bullpen a B-.

So, there you have it for the Miami Marlins.  After a full evaluation of this team, do I think they can repeat their 2020 success?  I would say probably not, only because of the insane competition in the National League East and the grind of an entire 162 game season will probably expose their lack of star talent and extreme youth.  However, I do think this is a team will win more than just a few games in ’21 and perhaps even be close to .500.  As an entire team, I’m going to give the Miami Marlins a C+.